Formula 1 betting: Max Verstappen can win the title with a Japan victory and the fastest lap

Max Verstappen doesn’t need any help to clinch the 2022 Formula 1 title in the Japanese Grand Prix (1 a.m. ET Sunday, ESPN2).

Verstappen enters the race needing to be 112 points ahead of either Charles LeClerc and Sergio Perez in second place in the points standings. And with a 104-point lead over Leclerc and a 106-point gap on Perez after the Singapore Grand Prix, all Verstappen has to do is win the race and post the fastest lap. Doing that will earn Verstappen 26 points while the driver finishing second in the race will get 18.

If Verstappen is 111 points or fewer ahead of Leclerc or Perez then the title chase goes on for another race.

Oddsmakers don’t think that possibility is extremely likely to happen. Verstappen is -165 to win the overnight race and is +140 to post the race’s fastest lap. As has become typical so far this season, Verstappen is the only driver with better than even odds to win the race. Leclerc is the No. 2 favorite at +300 and is also +300 to post the race’s fastest lap.

Like Singapore, the race at the Suzuka circuit is the first since 2019 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The long straightaway stretch in the final half of the lap at Suzuka could significantly favor Verstappen and Red Bull Racing. There’s a decent chance that he could win the pole and simply cruise to a win.

If you think that’s going to happen, you should take a look at a price boost BetMGM is offering. You can get a Verstappen win by 10 or more seconds coupled with the fastest lap along with Red Bull having the race’s fastest pit stop at +600. Those are pretty good odds for a team that’s had the fastest car this season and has a very fast pit crew.

Here are some of the bets we like heading into the race weekend. We made a profit on our bets in Singapore.

George Russell to finish in the top six (-400)

Yeah, the return on this is pretty low. But we think Russell will bounce back from a poor Singapore weekend to finish up where he normally does at Suzuka.

Sebastian Vettel to finish ahead of Lance Stroll (-115)

Vettel and Stroll scored top-10 finishes in Singapore. Stroll finished ahead of Vettel there. Vettel flips it around in Japan.

Mick Schumacher to finish ahead of Kevin Magnussen (+100)

Schumacher has worse odds in the head-to-head battle despite scoring more finishes ahead of Magnussen. We’ll see if we can outsmart the oddsmakers on this one.

Verstappen to win the pole (+150)

Leclerc is the favorite to start first at +125. We thought about taking Red Bull at those same odds to add Perez to this bet but figured Verstappen alone was worth the risk.

Qualifying margin to be 0.100 seconds or smaller (+165)

It’s easy to see how the Ferrari will be faster over the first half of the lap while the Red Bull pulls away at the end of the lap. We’ll see if we’re right.