High-Target Receiver Sleepers
Fantasy football success comes at the intersection of talent and opportunity, but at this theoretical intersection opportunity is the highway and talent is the avenue. We have seen plenty of low-talent grinders like Zac Stacy vault into fantasy relevance simply based on volume, and there are plenty of theoretically high-talent players languishing on Dynasty benches because they cannot find playing time. Talent is great, but without the opportunity it is meaningless.
Nowhere is this relationship between opportunity and fantasy points more evident than at the wide receiver position. Every single wide receiver who finished in the top 20 of PPR last year had at least 115 targets, and Randall Cobb’s 127 targets were the fewest of anyone in the top 12. Of the 111 individual seasons with 120 targets or more over the last five years, just eight have resulted in finishes outside the top 30 in PPR scoring. If a player reaches 120 targets, they are very likely to return WR3 value.
All of this means identifying low-priced receivers with big-target upside is an important exercise when preparing for a draft. Here are some wide receivers going outside of the top 30 at the position who have a real shot at 120 targets this season.
Davante Adams – WR32
This one is kind of cheating because he is already going inside the top 30 and his ADP will reflect that before draft season is over, but it is a great chance to talk about the most important news of the week. The season-ending injury to Jordy Nelson has created a massive target hole in the Packers’ offense. Nelson was the target on 28.4 percent of the Packers’ throws last season, and his 151 targets were the fourth most in the league. He had just one game all season with less than five targets.
Adams might not soak up all of those looks, but he is in a great position to take on the vast majority of them. Adams’ main competition for targets will be Randall Cobb, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery and Richard Rodgers. There is not much room for target growth for Cobb, who already saw 127 targets last season and had never gotten more than 105 targets in a single season before last year. He could certainly jump into the 140-150 range, but Nelson last season was the first player in the Aaron Rodgers’ era to break the 150-target mark. Rodgers tends to spread the ball around, even if he is spreading it around to names like James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.
The other three options are all even more unproven than Adams, who at least has a full season of snaps and 38 receptions under his belt. Perhaps whoever emerges out of the battle for the No. 3 sport takes the majority of Adams’ 66 targets from a year ago, and Richard Rodgers adds 30 targets to his total from last year. Not predicting any falloff from Andrew Quarless, who will almost certainly see less than 46 targets this year, we still have enough left over for Adams to reach 120. Those looks plus his touchdown upside – he scored 24 touchdowns his final year at Fresno State – make him a solid WR2 with the possibility for more.
Charles Johnson – WR30
Perhaps the most important thing to know about Charles Johnson’s chances of reaching 120 targets is where he stands on the depth chart. The news coming out of Minnesota this offseason has consistently painted a picture which showed Johnson as an ascending player. Norv Turner called him “far and away” the best receiver on the roster in February, ESPN’s Adam Caplan said Johnson was “the real deal” in training camp, and The Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Matt Vensel said Johnson is “the receiver Teddy Bridgewater trusts most.” Even with Mike Wallace in town, Johnson plays the right position and has the right profile to lead the team in targets.
The real question is how many targets are available in the offense? Minnesota threw on 58 percent of their plays and attempted 517 passes last year. Both numbers ranked in the bottom half of the league. More worryingly, Bridgewater’s attempts per game actually decreased as the year went on. Following the team’s Week 10 bye, Bridgewater averaged just over 29 attempts a game and attempted more than 30 passes in just two of seven games. Together with the potential impact Adrian Peterson could have on the run-pass split, these numbers do not bode well for Johnson’s target chances.
There is some reason for optimism, however. The Vikings only ran 981 plays last season, which is almost 100 less than Norv Turner called with Cleveland the year before and slightly less than Turner averaged in San Diego. There is a chance the Vikings increase the tempo in Bridgewater’s second year in the league. Even if they do not, Johnson was still able to manage 6.7 targets over the final seven games of the year, which is a 107 target pace. That is not quite 120, but a slight uptick in tempo or attempts could get him across the finish line.
John Brown – WR37
Saying John Brown has a chance at 120 targets is not the most courageous piece of prognostication considering he topped 100 as a rookie despite playing behind Michael Floyd for the majority of the year. With Floyd uncertain for the beginning of the year and likely stuck behind Brown on the depth chart regardless, it is not a far-fetched notion that Brown gets the roughly one extra target a game he needs to reach 120, especially if Carson Palmer is able to stay healthy and the Cardinals’ running game struggles again.
The great news is the drafting public has yet to realize Brown’s potential for growth. Though Brown was not efficient with his targets at any point last season, he was markedly better with Palmer under center. He caught 50 percent of his targets in games Palmer started and just 45 percent of the passes thrown by the other Cardinals “quarterbacks.” Natural progression in his second year could see him climb closer to the 55 percent career mark of DeSean Jackson, who has a similar usage pattern.
There are a lot of ifs surrounding Brown, but those ifs are not that far-fetched. It would be surprising if the sophomore did not outplay his current draft price, and he has the upside to be a weekly low-end WR2. That is an easy bet to make in the eighth round.
Devin Funchess – WR43
Like Adams, this one is cheating a bit because Devin Funchess’ ADP is sure to climb following the season-ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin. Unlike Adams, however, there is a real chance Funchess remains outside the top 30 despite Benjamin’s injury. There were plenty of people – present author included – who did not like Funchess in the pre-draft process, and Funchess does not have a great showing in a nationally televised game pushing him up the draft board like Adams does. Together, those two things could slow Funchess’ climb up the draft board. All in all that might be a good thing.
Funchess has a decent shot at 120 targets. Benjamin saw 26.6 percent of the Panthers’ targets last season while the rest of wide receivers on the roster saw a combined 31.9 percent. Greg Olsen could be asked to take on some of Benjamin’s targets, but he was already at 123 looks last season, which was the fourth highest among tight ends. Someone has to get those targets, and Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn or Jarrett Boykin are not better options than Funchess. At least we are not positive Funchess is bad, old or unable to function as anything more than a deep threat.
The concern with Funchess is he very well might be bad. Benjamin was inconsistent and inefficient last season, but he at least shows an aptitude for using his size to win in contested situations. Funchess rarely did that in college, and he often times played smaller than his 6’4, 232-pound frame. On top of that, he has the same hands concerns as Benjamin. If Funchess stays outside the top 40 he is worth a shot on volume alone, but it will be difficult to select him ahead of receivers like John Brown or Eric Decker.
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Kendall Wright – WR45
Following a breakout 94 catch campaign in 2013, Kendall Wright was limited to 93 targets in Ken Whisenhunt’s first year in Tennessee. Part of Wright’s slump came down to Whisenhunt’s offense, which did not allow Wright to freelance as much. Wright and Whisenhunt reportedly hashed out their differences this offseason, and new QB Marcus Mariota should offer plenty of opportunities to freelance with his ability to extend plays with his legs and improvise.
While Wright’s discomfort with the offense certainly played a role, the bigger culprit in his slump was the low-volume nature of the offense. Tennessee ran just 919 plays last season, which was the lowest total plays run by a team since the Titans themselves ran 907 in 2010. Whisenhunt has never run a fast-paced offense, but 919 plays were easily the fewest one of his teams has ever run.
There was not one reason the Titans ran so few plays, but there are some important factors that stand out. The first was their inability to maintain drives. The Titans averaged a league-worst 4.93 plays per drive last year and were second worst in the league at converting third downs. The Titans also averaged the fourth-lowest time of possession last season, partly because of their inability to maintain drives and partly because they had a league-leading 515 rushing attempts against. They also had the fourth-fewest turnovers created.
Long story short, the Titans were bad last year. The good news for Wright is they could be better this time around. Improved quarterback play and a hopefully improved running game should help the offense sustain drives, thus creating more offensive opportunities. Defenses tend to regress to the mean more readily than offense, especially when it comes to turnovers. Though the Titans are unlikely to become a top-ten defensive team this season, they should play better against the run and force more turnovers, again creating more offensive chances. If both of these things happen, we could see a situation where the Titans run 100 more offensive plays and Wright finds himself back in the 120-target club.
Eddie Royal – WR50
With the specter of Kevin White coming in and stealing all his targets now not a concern, it is somewhat surprising Eddie Royal is still being this disrespected in fantasy drafts. He was the favorite to open the season opposite Alshon Jeffery even before the White injury was announced, but now he is guaranteed a starting spot in an offense which lost 140 targets last season, not to mention the at least 30 targets and likely closer to 60 targets Matt Forte will lose. Perhaps Jeffery and Marquess Wilson soak up some of those looks, but the vast majority should go to Royal.
All of those targets should create a nice weekly floor for Royal in PPR, but the real question is ceiling. Eight touchdowns walked out the door when Brandon Marshall was traded to the Jets, and while Royal does not have the physical profile of a touchdown creator, he has 15 scores over the last two years. 10 of those touchdowns have come in the red zone, and six have come inside the 10-yard line. Royal converted 36 percent of his red-zone targets into touchdowns last season.
Everyone keeps projecting Royal to stop scoring touchdowns, and yet he just keeps finding the end zone, usually in bunches. Royal has four multiple touchdown games the last two years, which is tied for the eighth most in the league over that span. Matched with the high-floor his targets should provide, the chance for multiple touchdowns provides the week-to-week ceiling needed in a WR3. He is an easy pick at his current ADP.
Anquan Boldin – WR40
We have entered the disrespected old guy section of the article, and no receiver fits that description better than Anquan Boldin. Despite seeing 259 targets total his first two years in San Francisco and finishing as a WR2 both years in PPR, Boldin’s ADP languishes in the 40s because of concerns about his age and upside, but mostly because fantasy players are quick to discard old reliable options for the new shiny toys which come out of the draft every year. Try as I might, I cannot fix the overvaluing of young talent, but I can discuss Boldin’s age and upside concerns.
Boldin will be 34 when the season begins. Since 2000, there have been 107 instances of a wide receiver 34 or older playing at least one game in a season. 27 of those seasons (25 percent) have resulted in at least 120 targets and 40 (37 percent) have resulted in 100 targets or more. There have been 2,403 instances of a wide receiver in their 20s playing at least one game in a season since 2000. Just nine percent of those players reached 120 targets, and only 16 percent reached 100 targets. Of the 232 wide receivers who played in at least one game last year, just 22 had more than 120 targets and 41 hit the 100-target mark. The higher percentage of big-target seasons for the older players is not that surprising. If a wide out lasts until their mid-30s in the NFL, they are probably very good and an important part of the team. Boldin is both of those things, and on top of that he has a game which has aged very well. On a team with a talent-deficient defense, he should easily surpass 120 targets.
The other question about Boldin is his week-to-week upside. The average score for the weekly WR12 in PPR scoring last season was 21.2 points. Anquan Boldin reached that mark four times last season, meaning he had WR1 production in 25 percent of his games. That is the same number of times T.Y. Hilton reached the WR1 threshold and only two times less than Demaryius Thomas. People do not question their ceilings.
Steve Smith – WR41
The other disrespected old guy is Steve Smith, who finished one spot below Boldin in the PPR rankings last season. All of the old, good players get targeted a lot information from Boldin applies to Smith with the added caveat that the Ravens have basically no one else to throw the ball. Rookie Breshad Perriman is dealing with an ever more concerning knee injury, their highest-upside tight end is a rookie who is reportedly coming around slowly, and Michael Campanaro and Marlon Brown are always injured and very unproven. At this point it appears Kamar Aiken has a real shot to open the season opposite Smith. Though I like him, he is 26 and has just 24 career receptions, which all came last season. If Baltimore is going to throw, it is more than likely going to be to Smith.
Smith did fade down the stretch last year, but he saw double-digit targets in three of the last four games and put up WR2 numbers in two of those contests. He also played well in the playoffs, going over 100 yards against Pittsburgh and catching a touchdown against the Patriots. The narrative that he ran out of gas at the end of last season is a little overblown, and at any rate he should be good and rested when the season begins. If he is only really good for the first four games of the season again this year, he will still repay his draft price.
