Horse racing: Yahoo Sport UK’s Aintree Festival 2016 – Day One preview: Thursday’s top tips

Over the next three days, we will bring you the analysis of every Aintree Festival race, including today’s four Grade 1 races on Ladies Day!

1.40 MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 1)

2m 3f 200y

FORECAST: L'Ami Serge (11/4), Sizing John (3/1), Garde La Victoire (7/2), Arzal (6/1), Rock The World (8/1), Bouvreuil (10/1), Volnay De Thaix (20/1), Aso (25/1)

ANALYSIS: This race is still in its infancy, having been first run in 2009. The seven winners to date had all previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (four in the Arkle and three in the JLT) finishing 0 4 2 3 5 2 8 on their previous run.

There has been just one winning favourite in the last six renewals, with the winner’s market position being 3 3 2 2 1 2 3. All seven winners were rated 147-155.

Garde La Victoire won four on the spin – including his first three over fences – prior to falling in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival four out. He has not totally convinced with his jumping, but he was going well wen coming to grief and could have had a say in the finish. The Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson combination have won this race twice in the last five years.

[GRAND NATIONAL 2016 OFFICE SWEEPSTAKE KIT]

L’Ami Serge was very disappointing when beaten by Violet Dancer at Warwick before he finished third in the JLT. Like Garde La Victoire, he was re-routed from the Arkle because his fencing has not always been fluent and connections wanted to avoid Douvan. He produced a career-best at Cheltenham last time but, having travelled well, did not find a lot near the line and it may be that this trip just taxed his stamina up the hill.

Connections of Sizing John (below) must be sick of the sight of Douvan. He has been beaten five times over fences, each time by the Arkle winner. He produced an admirable effort in defeat at Cheltenham and while he is untried over today’s trip, he looks to be crying out for the extra half-mile. He is a superb jumper with a big engine and should progress further on decent ground.

Arzal had Arkle third Fox Norton behind him when second to Vaniteux in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster, when conceding 4lb. If allowed to dominate, he could be tough to pass and this galloping track should help him get this trip.

Rock The World, winner of a Grade 3 novices’ chase when beating subsequent Arkle fourth The Game Changer at Galway in September, was sent off favourite for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last time and finished third. He is no back number and should appreciate this extra distance.

WINNER: SIZING JOHN

EACH-WAY: ARZAL

2.15 ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE (GRADE 1)

2m 209y

FORECAST: Ivanovich Gorbatov (Evs), Apple’s Jade (9/2), Footpad (5/1), Diego Du Charmil (8/1), Romain De Senam (16/1), Sceau Royal (16/1), Azzuri (25/1), Khezerabad (25/1), Doubly Clever (33/1)

ANALYSIS: Historically, a good race for favourites with seven of the last 10 jollies winning. Nine out of 10 winners finished in the first three last time out and nine of the last 11 winners ran previously at Cheltenham (eight in the Triumph Hurdle, two in the Fred Winter and one in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle).

Paul Nicholls has sent out three winners of this race in the last 12 years and saddled a 1-2 last year. He runs Diego Du Charmil, winner of the Fred Winter on only his third start, and runner-up Romain De Senam, who was beaten a head by his stablemate at Cheltenham. The former was very green in front and the latter would have caught him in a couple of strides.

The extra half furlong of the Triumph Hurdle was run in a time just under six seconds slower than the Triumph Hurdle won by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Ivanovich Gorbatov (below). Aidan’s son, Joseph, has done most of the work at home with this 97-rated Flat handicapper, who picked up the filly Apple’s Jade without too much trouble to run out a 1¼l winner. Footpad was a further six lengths back in third. Footpad beat Ivanovich Gorbatov in bad ground previously, so any rain will help his cause.

WINNER: IVANOVICH GORBATOV

EACH-WAY: DIEGO DU CHARMIL

2.50 AINTREE BOWL CHASE (GRADE 1)

3m 210y

FORECAST: Cue Card (10/11), Djakadam (5/2), Don Poli (6/1), Saphir Du Rheu (14/1), Irish Cavalier (20/1), Taquin Du Seuil (25/1), Dynaste (33/1), Houblon Des Obeaux (33/1), Wakanda (50/1)

ANALYSIS: A cracking renewal of the Grade 1 chase which has not been kind to favourite backers, with just one of the last 12 (Exotic Dancer in 2007) scoring before Silviniaco Conti was successful last year. The Gold Cup is not a race to look at in terms of worthwhile stats, as just one horse from the front three in the Gold Cup has won this race since 1997.

Nine of the last 13 winners has an official rating of between 159 and 169. The only runner who falls in that category is Gold Cup third Don Poli (who has a 165 rating). He is not the easiest to ride, as he can be lazy, saving plenty for himself (sign of a good horse), and would probably appreciate softer ground than is forecast. Going forward, he looks more of a Grand National type.

The Pipe stable has won four of the last 13 renewals and David Pipe relies on Dynaste, who is the outsider of the party, having finished a lacklustre seventh to Vautour in the Ryanair Chase. Like Saphir Du Rheu and the first-time blinkered Irish Cavalier, he is probably just making up the numbers.

Djakadam was 10 lengths ahead of Don Poli in the Gold Cup, but had no answer to Don Cossack and was runner-up for a second successive year. He is still only seven and may well bid to make it third time lucky next year.

Colin Tizzard’s King George winner Cue Card (below) was running a smashing race in the Gold Cup and looked a real threat to land the £1 million bonus. Going well when disputing the lead, he fell three out. It was the first time he had fallen in four years of chasing. Providing the 10-year-old has not suffered any loss of confidence, he should take the prize. The ground will be in his favour and there will likely be no more popular winner at this meeting.

WINNER: CUE CARD

EACH-WAY: DJAKADAM

3.25 DOOM BAR AINTREE HURDLE (GRADE 1)

2m 4f

FORECAST: Annie Power (8/15), Nichols Canyon (9/2), My Tent Or Yours (8/1), The New One (8/1), Camping Ground (20/1), Court Minstrel (50/1)

ANALYSIS: The Aintree Hurdle’s roll of honour is a strong one, as this race has been won by such legends as Night Nurse, Comedy Of Errors, Morley Street, Istabraq and Dawn Run. Irish-trained horses have won seven on the last 12 renewals.

Nine of the last 13 winners previously ran at Cheltenham, but none of them won. In the last decade, only Solwit won last time out and only three favourites have won in the last 10 years.

If that stat holds true, Annie Power (below), who sauntered to a 4 ½ l victory in the Champion Hurdle, is worth opposing. She is likely to go off the odds-on favourite, having accounted for My Tent Or Yours, Nichols Canyon and The New One, who were respectively second, third and fourth at Cheltenham.

She was allowed to bowl along in front in the Champion Hurdle and had the benefit of the 7lb mares’ allowance, which she gets again.

Can she last home against those rivals over the extra 3½f? She was touched off in the World Hurdle over 3m in 2014 and it is possible that Nichols Canyon, who has Grade 1 winning form over today’s extra distance (won the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle here last year) and 2014 winner The New One, could make more of a race of it.

Given that My Tent Or Yours was racing for the first time in almost two years when beaten in the Champion Hurdle, he should also strip fitter. The question is whether or not he will get this trip.

While she is an exceptional mare, she may well be vulnerable.

WINNER: MY TENT OR YOURS

EACH-WAY: THE NEW ONE

4.05 CRABBIE’S FOX HUNTERS CHASE

2m 5f 19y

FORECAST: On The Fringe (11/8), Pacha Du Polder (7/2), Marasonnien (7/1), Current Event (8/1), Current Exchange (10/1), Mendip Express (12/1), Major Malarkey (20/1), Monkey Kingdom (20/1), Bound For Glory (33/1), Clonbanan Lad (33/1), Cottage Oak (33/1), Daymar Bay (33/1), Fredo (33/1), Dineur (50/1), Fort George (50/1), Need To Know (50/1), Night Alliance (50/1), Ockey De Neulliac (50/1), Sam Cavallaro (50/1), Doubledisdoubledat (66/1), Forge Valley (66/1), Richmond (66/1), Swallows Delight (100/1)

ANALYSIS: 30 of the last 32 winners were aged nine or over and nine of the last 11 came from the top three in the market.

Last year, On The Fringe followed up is victory in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ Chase, becoming only the second Irish-trained winner of the race since 1999 (below). He bids to repeat the trick, having scored at the Festival last month.
Pacha Du Polder was second in this race last year and was a fine fifth under dual Olympic gold medal-winning cyclist Victoria Pendleton at Cheltenham. While she did not look out of place, Will Biddick takes the ride today for the Paul Nicholls yard. This is much more like his trip.

Marasonnien made all in convincing fashion at the Ballyragget point-to-point, while Current Event was a place in front on Pacha Du Polder at Cheltenham and may not be able to confirm those placings. Mendip Express was 8th and may appreciate the drop in trip. Another to consider is Money Kingdom, who should appreciate the better ground if he doesn’t go off like a scalded cat.

WINNER: PACHA DU POLDER

EACH-WAY: MENDIP EXPRESS

4.40 RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3)

2m 5f 19y

FORECAST: Dandridge (5/1), Fayette County (11/2), Solar Impulse (6/1), Minella Present (7/1), Viconte Du Noyer (7/1), Katachenko (10/1), Bright New Dawn (12/1), Pearls Legend (12/1), Workbench (12/1), Aye Well (14/1), Going Concern (14/1), Croco Bay (16/1), Surf And Turf (25/1)

ANALYSIS: With 10 of the last 11 winners of this race carrying less than 11st 1lb to victory, it may pay to look near the foot of the handicap again.Eight of the last 11 winners were rated between 134 and 143, with last year’s winner, Surf And Turf, officially rated 132. He bids to follow up off a 6lb higher mark.

No less than 25 of the last 27 winners were aged nine or less and there have been just two winning favourites in the last decade.

Minella Present, Workbench and Pearls Legend all fall into those trend boxes, as does Dandridge, despite being the likely favourite.

Pearls Legend has done nothing but improve since finishing a close-up third in this last year but his consistency has seen little respite from the handicapper.

Workbench is 10lb higher than when winning a class 2 race at Fontwell for the second year running back in October and has a bit to find with Pearls Legend on their run behind Solar Impulse in the Grand Annual, where Dandridge was a fine second.

Minella Present has been off since finishing runner-up to Keen Haul on his handicap debut at Cheltenham in November (Pearls Legend third) and is weighted to confirm that form.

WINNER: DANDRIDGE

EACH-WAY: MINELLA PRESENT

5.15 MARES’ NH FLAT RACE (GRADE 2)

2m 209y

FORECAST: La Bague Au Roi (5/2), Augusta Kate (4/1), Copper Kay (7/1), Shattered Love (15/2), Kayf Grace (12/1), Theatre Territory (12/1), Little Miss Poet (14/1), Snow Leopardess (14/1), My Khaleesi (16/1), Storm Patrol (16/1), Bells On Sunday (25/1), Beyond Measure (25/1), Lastbutnotleast (25/1), Miss Spent (25/1), Potters Lady Jane (25/1), Cajun Fiddle (50/1), Jennifer Eccles (100/1), Lillian (100/1)

ANALYSIS: There has been just one winning favourite in the last 10 renewals of this Day One finale, with four of those winners priced 20/1 or bigger. 10 of the last 11 winners had won at least one bumper.

La Bague Au Roi is unbeaten in three starts, including victory here in October. She made all at Huntingdon last time and while she may not have things all her own way, she will take a bit of beating.

Augusta Kate had her colours lowered in the Campion bumper at Cheltenham. Having won her first two starts, she was well backed to beat the boys but finished seventh.

Copper Kay is one of the more experienced runners, having won three of her six starts. She got bogged down conceding weight at Sandown last time on her first run for four months, and is best judge on her fine victory at Cheltenham previously.

Shattered Love is unbeaten in two starts and comes here with a big reputation following her Naas victory. She is still a big baby and this is a step up in class.

Kayf Grace, winner of a Fakenham bumper, and My Khaleesi, who won at Huntingdon, both represent powerful yards and merit a second look in the market.

WINNER: AUGUSTA KATE

EACH-WAY: SHATTERED LOVE

OTHER MEETINGS

SOUTHWELL: 1.50 Who Told Jo Jo, 2.25 Melendez, 3.00 Quadriga, 3.35 Gabrial The Duke, 4.15 Tatran Bute, 4.50 Abi Scarlet, 5.25 Oscars Journey

TAUNTON: 2.05 Cahill, 2.40 Emerging Talent, 3.15 Handsome Sam, 3.55 Sew On Target, 4.30 Sir Ivan, 5.05 Benedictus, 5.40 Captain Buck’s, 6.10 New Providence

CHELMSFORD: 5.50 Hakam, 6.20 Powderhorn, 6.50 Rationality, 7.20 Whoopsy Daisy, 7.50 Upstaging, 8.20 Lady Lloyd

LIMERICK: 2.00 Dragon Khan, 2.35 Orangey Red, 3.10 Charlies Missile, 3.45 A Likely Story, 4.20 Barbeque, 4.55 Red House Hill, 5.30 Blue Skimmer

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