Horse Racing: O’Brien prepared to gamble with Saxon Warrior as Masar misses Eclipse

Sometimes it is best to use your own eyes rather than rely on what a pedigree says a horse should do. That is certainly the conclusion we must come to with Saxon Warrior, who is one of eight declared runners for Saturday’s Eclipse at Sandown (2.10pm).

That went down to seven runners on Friday evening, when Derby hero and Eclipse favourite Masar was declared a non-runner owing to heat in his leg.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained son of Deep Impact, out of Galileo mare Maybe, won the 2,000 Guineas in fine style and was odds-on for the Investec Derby, where he finished a somewhat lacklustre fourth to Masar.

Epsom can provide numerous excuses and we were duly accorded them. He didn’t like the rack, was the word from Ballydoyle. Fair enough.

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But his run in the Irish Derby last weekend, when beaten three-quarters of a length by Latrobe in what did not appear to be anything near a strong renewal, poses plenty more questions.

His failure to quicken up would suggest that he might even want further, but O’Brien appears to be doing the right thing by dropping him back to 10 furlongs.

Deep Impact’s progeny, according to his dosage figure, are best up to a mile and a quarter and it is a case of whether or not he will be at his best after being forced to run again so quickly.

O’Brien is not a gambler. His instincts can rarely be questioned. So, the withdrawal of Masar, which saw his odds contract to 2/1 with Genting Bet (from 4/1), has made Saxon Warrior’s chance that much more realistic and he still may be the value in what reamains a fair renewal of the Group 1.

He said: “Obviously he hasn’t done anything since (Irish Derby) and we’ll watch him closely all the way up to the race, but he seems to have taken it well. We won’t really know until we run him, but he seems very well.”

To the eye, at least, Saxon Warrior has more speed than stamina and coming back to 10 furlongs might prove to be the answer.

Masar was third in the Guineas and Roaring Lion fourth, and each appeared to improve on that when respectively first and third in the Derby.

Masar ducked the Irish Derby in favour of the Eclipse, so naturally enough, trainer Charlie Appleby, was said to be “more than a little disappointed” that he could not settle the argument once and for all, in proving that Masar was the best three-year-old colt in training.

Roaring Lion is now Eclipse favourite. He was hugely impressive in the 10-furlong Dante at York in between, even though the form of that race looks average. His trainer, John Gosden, felt Masar was the one they all had to beat.

He said: “I think the Guineas is the best form, so to that extent we’ve got it all to do, but we know a mile and a quarter on top of the ground suits us.”

This race sees the clash of the generations and O’Brien also runs Cliffs Of Moher, favourite for the race last year when fourth to Ulysses, although he has not been in the same sort of form since. He also saddles Happily, who has not set the world alight, but she gets a 3lb allowance because she is a filly.

She was a little unlucky in running when fourth to Laurens in the French Oaks last time and did have Masar behind in third when winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly last October.

More spice is added with 2016 Eclipse winner and Masar stablemate Hawkbill, who has been well held in his last two starts, and the field and the best of the older horses could prove to be the Richard Fahey-trained Forest Ranger, who has won both his starts this season. While progressive, he is still rated 8lb inferior to Saxon Warrior and he is untried in this lofty company.

A chance is taken that Saxon Warrior can redeem his reputation. The Coolmore brains trust rarely gets it wrong and if he runs, he will certainly be of interest at the current Genting Bet odds.

Saturday’s selections

SANDOWN PARK: 12.20 Muthmir, 12.55 Via Serendipity, 1.30 Gavota, 2.10 SAXON WARRIOR (NAP), 2.45 Point Hope, 3.20 Fun Mac, 3.55 Gododdin

HAYDOCK PARK: 12.35 Rude Awakening, 1.10 God Given , 1.45 Atty Persse, 2.20 Mythmaker, 2.55 Buridan, 3.30 Red Starlight, 4.05 Gossip Column

CHELMSFORD (AW): 1.35 Izvestia, 2.05 Dave Dexter, 2.40 Nine Below Zero, 3.15 Sea Youmzain, 3.50 Glory Awaits, 4.25 Ventura Crest, 4.55 Four Fifty Three, 5.25 Mr Tyrrell

LEICESTER: 1.50 Smooth Sailing, 2.25 Knockabout Queen, 3.00 Railport Dolly, 3.35 Easy Tiger, 4.10 Jurz, 4.40 Gripper, 5.10 Eponina

BEVERLEY: 2.00 Prince Elzaam, 2.35 Sosume, 3.10 Rosina (nb), 3.45 Bedwyyah, 4.20 Save The Bees, 4.50 Winged Spur, 5.20 Terrier Spirit

NOTTINGHAM: 5.40 Bollin Ted, 6.10 Hatha, 6.40 Born To Finish, 7.10 Strictly Art, 7.40 Mushtaq, 8.10 Seaborough, 8.40 Chingachgook

CARLISLE: 6.00 Geoff Potts, 6.30 Aloysius Lilius, 7.00 Jeany, 7.30 Graceful Act, 8.00 Dontgiveuponbob, 8.30 On A May Day, 9.00 Arcadian Cat

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