Horse racing: Yahoo Sport UK’s Cheltenham Festival 2016 preview – Tuesday’s top tips

Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with the experts at Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.

Over the next four days, we will bring you the analysis of every Cheltenham Festival race, including today’s feature, the Champion Hurdle.

1.30 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

FORECAST: Min (7/4), Altior (7/2), Buveur D'air (6/1), Bellshill (10/1), Supasundae (10/1), Tombstone (10/1), Silver Concorde (12/1), Charbel (20/1), North Hill Harvey (25/1), Mister Miyagi (33/1), Penglai Pavilion (33/1), Petit Mouchoir (33/1), Holly Bush Henry (50/1), William H Bonney (66/1)

ANALYSIS: Willie Mullins saddles three runners as he bids to win the Grade 1 event for the fourth successive year and the trio is headed by Min, who has won both his starts this season in convincing fashion on soft and heavy ground at Punchestown. The drying ground is sure to help, but while he boasts star quality and is very fluent over his hurdles, the main concern is that he has been keen in his races and has not been battle-tested like some of his rivals.

Buveur D’Air, who was a decent sort in bumpers last term and the form of his seasonal debut at Newbury in November has worked out well, with the second, third, fourth and fifth all subsequently winning decent novice events.

Supasundae will need to show improvement in his jumping after being quite tardy early on when wining a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. If he has improved that aspect, Henry De Bromhead’s runner may well prove the value, as he ran a stormer in last season’s Champion Bumper, leading until the final furlong.

He beat Silver Concorde by 13 lengths in that contest, but it was in heavy ground and Dermot Weld’s strong traveller may well turn the tables should the ground dry out further. Neither have been seen out since, but both should benefit from the break.

We side, however, with ALTIOR. Like Buveur D’Air, he is trained by Nicky Henderson and while he finished behind both Bellshill and Carbel in last season’s Champion Bumper, the selection has won four times over hurdles, including a Grade 2 here. He pulled hard that day, but was much less fizzy when winning well at Kempton, showing a remarkable turn of foot. That race has also worked out very well.

WINNER: ALTIOR

EACH-WAY: SUPASUNDAE

2.10 ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

FORECAST: Douvan (4/11), Vaniteux (5/1), Sizing John (8/1), The Game Changer (12/1), Fox Norton (33/1), Aso (66/1), Baltimore Rock (66/1)

ANALYSIS: DOUVAN looks the obvious choice. Last year’s Supreme Novices’ winner is unbeaten in his seven starts for Willie Mullins, including when strolling to two Grade 1 novice chases at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and a month later, winning by 15 and 18-lengths respectively, easily accounting for Sizing John in the latter. His jumping looks assured and his rivals, do not look able to cut the mustard in comparison.

Vaniteux, who was last in the 2015 Champion Hurdle, looked impressive on his chasing debut at Kempton, but has a tendency to make the odd costly jumping error, while The Game Changer, who has won six of his eight chase starts, come into this after a break of five months, following a wind operation. Minor honours are perhaps the best he can hope for, along with Baltimore Rock, the former Imperial Cup winner, who is not without hope if replicating his Doncaster novice handicap chasing debut in late December.

WINNER: DOUVAN

EACH-WAY: BALTIMORE ROCK

2.50 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

FORECAST: Out Sam (11/2), Holywell (7/1), Kruzhlinin (8/1), Carole’s Destrier (10/1), Beg To Differ (12/1), Morning Assembly (12/1), The Young Master (12/1), Regal Encore (14/1), Theatre Guide (14/1), Un Temps Pour Tout (14/1), Southfield Theatre (16/1), Doing Fine (20/1), Spring Heeled (20/1), Ballykan (25/1), Indian Castle (25/1), Shanahan’s Turn (25/1), Algernon Pazham (33/1), Audacious Plan (33/1), Band Of Blood (33/1), Double Ross (33/1), Fox Appeal (33/1), Katenko (33/1), O Maonlai (33/1), According To Trev (66/1)

ANALYSIS: Novices have a decent record in this 3m1f event, and impressive Sandown scorer Beg To Differ and Out Sam, who showed plenty of class when scoring at Newbury last time, both look potentially well handicapped. The latter was particularly fluent and travelled well in soft ground. He looked capable of running the in the RSA Chase, but his trainer, who feels he will be better on quicker ground, has opted for the softer Grade 3.

Fox Appeal ran better than his form suggested at Kempton two weeks ago, and while hard as nails, he does have the tendency to put in the odd error. He is capable on his day and is a bigger price than he should be.

The Kempton winner, Theatre Guide, dead-heated with Fox Appeal in a Graduation chase 18 months ago at Kempton off level weights and has since finished second in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Fox Appeal was giving Theatre Guide 11lb, so the handicapper is clearly taking no chances with the former.

Holywell, who win this in 2014 before finishing fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, has not been in nearly such sparkling form this term, while the handicapper may just have the measure of Carole’s Destrier after winning three of his last five. His trainer, Neil Mulholland, won this last year, the progressive 8yo will not mind dropping back in trip. There is plenty to recommend him.
However, the verdict goes to KRUZHLININ, a solid jumper who scored decisively on his stable debut at Kempton in soft ground, his first start following an 11-month break. Though up 10lb for that, he may get his own way in front and may take some stopping.

WINNER: KRUZHLININ

EACH-WAY: CAROLE’S DESTRIER

3.30 CHAMPION HURDLE

FORECAST: Annie Power (7/4), Nichols Canyon (5/1), Identity Thief (11/2), The New One (6/1), My Tent Or Yours (8/1), Top Notch (14/1), Peace And Co (16/1), Camping Ground (20/1), Hargam (20/1), Old Guard (20/1), Sempre Medici (25/1), Lil Rockerfeller (33/1), Sign Of A Victory (66/1)

ANALYSIS: This lacks the star power of Faugheen and looks a below-standard renewal of the two-mile championship. Annie Power (above) is arguably the best horse in the race and is head and shoulders above her sex, but two years after first being touted for this race, connections have finally decided the time is now.

She gets a 7lb allowance and that may help offset the fact that she may not have the pace to mix it over 2m, having run over 3m of the World Hurdle in 2014. She infamously fell at the last in the Mares’ Hurdle when clear last year.

Stablemate Nichols Canyon, aiming to give the Willie Mullins team its fourth Champion Hurdle win in six years, was third in the Neptune Investment last year. He downed the progressive Fighting Fifth hero Identity Thief in Ryanair over Christmas, before running below-par in the Irish Champion Hurdle when thrashed 28-lengths by Faugheen. He had excuses that day and may make a bold bid from the front.

My Tent Or Yours has been absent since April 2014 and it will be a remarkable raining feat should Nicky Henderson’s runner replicate anything like his narrow Champion Hurdle defeat by Jezki on his penultimate start.

Ex-French Camping Ground beat Lil Rockerfeller over 2m4f in tremendous style here before failing to see out 3m in January. The drying ground and the fact that he drops back in trip are both reasons for passing him over on this occasion, although he holds place claims.

THE NEW ONE has been a little unlucky. He was hampered when third in this race in 2014, was reportedly suffering from a back problem after his fifth last year, and had a corn when beaten seven lengths by Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

However, on his day, he is among the best in the division. Given Nigel Twiston-Davies’s good form, The New One may be able to finally win the big one.

WINNER: THE NEW ONE

EACH-WAY: MY TENT OR YOURS

4.10 THE DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE

FORECAST: Vroum Vroum Mag (Evs), Polly Peachum (5/1), Aurore D'estruval (10/1), Bitofapuzzle (12/1), Tara Point (14/1), The Govaness (14/1), Gitane Du Berlais (16/1), Lily Waugh (20/1), Desert Queen (25/1), Flute Bowl (25/1), Keppols Queen (25/1), Stephanie Frances (25/1), Legacy Gold (33/1), Morello Royale (33/1), Rock On The Moor (33/1), Rons Dream (33/1), Fairytale Theatre (50/1), Pass The Time (66/1), Flementime (100/1), Melbourne Lady (100/1)

ANALYSIS: Polly Peachum is set to end her career after this race, in which she was second in last year following an interrupted preparation. She handled heavy ground well at Sandown in early January, beating The Govaness by a head on only her second start in nine months.

The latter-named, along with Rons Dream, Desert Queen and Aurore D’Estruval, were all behind VROUM VROUM MAG at Ascot in January, and she will aim to give the Willie Mullins (above) stable its eighth win in the race since the inaugural running in 2008.

The selection is a very short price for what she has achieved – she has won six over fences before landing the odds with ease on her two recent hurdling efforts – but sets a fine standard.

Gary Moore has always thought plenty of Flute Bowl, and she is capable on her day.

Bitofapuzzle was second in this last year as a novice and reverts to hurdles after being pulled up over fences last time. Confidence may be low, but she appears to relish this track and is a fair each-way price if the fire is rekindled.

WINNER: VROUM VROUM MAG

EACH-WAY: BITOFAPUZZLE

4.50 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS’ NOVICES’ CHASE)

FORECAST: Minella Rocco (9/2), Noble Endeavor (6/1), Pont Alexandre (7/1), Southfield Royale (7/1), Measureofmydreams (8/1), Native River (8/1), Ballychorus (10/1), Definitly Red (14/1), Local Show (14/1), Vicente (14/1), Shantou Flyer (20/1), Vieux Lion Rouge (20/1), Pleasant Company (25/1), Vintage Vinnie (33/1), Waldorf Salad (33/1), Warrantor (33/1), Bally Beaufort (50/1), Johnny Og (50/1), Viva Steve (50/1), How About It (66/1)

ANALYSIS: The last five winners of this Listed marathon chase had single-figure starting prices. If that trend hold firm, those to concentrate upon are Minella Rocco, Native River, Noble Endeavour, Pont Alexandre and Southfield Royale.

Noble Endeavour was beaten five lengths by Measureofmydreams in a Grade 2 at Navan last month, with Pleasant Company third, but over a much longer trip, the former should turn the tables.

Minella Rocco hails from the Jonjo O’Neill yard who won this four times between 2002 and 2007, and was beaten narrowly by Vyta Du Roc in a Grade 2 over 3m at Ascot, which means he sets the standard.

Native River won a Newbury Grade 2 in November but did not look to be putting it all in at Wetherby last time and cheekpieces might have a galvanising effect.

PONT ALEXANDRE was well backed for the Neptune in 2013 when third to The New One, but suffered a leg and was not seen again until producing a stunning display to win on his chasing debut at Punchestown in early December. The slight negative in his two subsequent runs in heavy ground was his keenness. He did not quite see out 3m at Naas although was far from disgraced at Leopardstown over 2m5½f in Grade 1 company last month. If he handles the preliminaries, he may well be the one to beat.

Southfield Royale is ultra-consistent, winning five of his 10 starts and finishing second in four. Neil Mulholland wasted no time in booking Nina Carberry for the plum ride and his good second in a Grade 1 at Kempton over Christmas means he has leading claims.

WINNER: PONT ALEXANDRE

EACH-WAY: SOUTHFIELD ROYALE

5.30 CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

FORECAST: Aloomomo (5/1), Willow’s Saviour (8/1), Bouvreuil (10/1), Double Shuffle (10/1), Mckinley (10/1), Ballyalton (12/1), Javert (12/1), Rezorbi (14/1), Thomas Brown (14/1), Amore Alato (16/1), Domesday Book (16/1), Five In A Row (16/1), Katgary (16/1), Killala Quay (16/1), On Tour (16/1), Bridgets Pet (20/1), Fourth Act (20/1), Racing Pulse (20/1), Twelve Roses (25/1), Jayo Time (33/1)

ANALYSIS: A tight-knit handicap where 20 runners are within just 4lb of each other. ALOOMOMO has looked a blot on the handicap over fences, having won easily in three handicaps this winter. He sluiced in at Newbury in November and while he has gone up 11lb, there looked to be plenty more to come from the Warren Greatrex inmate.

A big, strong, laid-back individual and a good traveller, Javert has risen 9lb following a decisive win at Doncaster, when accounting for Fairy Rath by 12 lengths. That form is solid as the runner-up has scored since and the Emma Lavelle (above) stable had a winner at Sandown on Saturday.

Killala Quay beat Twelve Roses in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton over Christmas and the latter may reverse the form on this better ground. The former’s optimum trip may be 3m in time, but both hold place claims at decent prices.

Willow’s Saviour, rated 138 over hurdles, opened his account over fences at Warwick on his debut after 23 months on the sidelines and was fourth in a Grade 1 at Sandown before scoring in a two-runner affair at Fakenham. He can jump spectacularly and is in the masterful hands of Dan Skelton, a future champion trainer.

In his third start over fences, Double Shuffle won at Ludlow on his handicap chasing debut under top weight in December, having previously run twice with credit here in decent novice chases. Further improvement can be expected, even though he lacks the experience of some.

WINNER: ALOOMOMO

EACH-WAY: TWELVE ROSES

OTHER MEETINGS:

SEDGEFIELD: 1.15 Superfection, 1.45 Fiddler’s Flight, 2.25 Lawless Island, 3.05 Away For Slates, 3.45 Generous Pet, 4.25 Pamak D’airy, 5.00 Tara Time

SOUTHWELL: 1.55 Phantom Flipper, 2.35 Tasaaboq, 3.15 Imjin River, 3.55 Sir Billy Wright, 4.35 Response, 5.10 Edgar, 5.40 Henry Smith

WOLVERHAMPTON: 6.05 City Of Angkor Wat, 6.40 Kodiac Lady, 7.10 Jammy Guest, 7.40 Dor’s Law, 8.10 Medieval Bishop, 8.40 Cool Crescendo, 9.10 Ashford Island

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