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Horse racing: Yahoo Sport UK’s Cheltenham Festival 2016 preview – Wednesday’s top tips
Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with the experts at Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.
Over the next three days, we will bring you the analysis of every Cheltenham Festival race, including today’s feature, the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
1.30 NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 1)
2m5f 26y Old Course
FORECAST: Yanworth (Evs), Yorkhill (5/2), A Toi Phil (7/1), O O Seven (20/1), Bello Conti (25/1), Its’Afreebee (33/1), Thomas Hobson (20/1), Vigil (25/1), Yala Enki (33/1), Welsh Shadow (40/1), Ghost River (100/1)
ANALYSIS: This revolves round the Alan King-trained Yanworth, who was fourth in last year’s Champion Bumper, before embarking on his hurdling career that has brought four successive wins from four start this winter. He accounted for Welsh Shadow on his Exeter debut in November when barely getting out of first gear, beat subsequent Grade 2 scorer Le Prezien at Warwick and another next-time-out winner in Charbel at Ascot. Upped in trip, he came into his own over C&D on his last start, in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle, producing a classy display to lower the colours of previously unbeaten Shantou Village by seven lengths. He did still look a bit green on that occasion, but the experience will have helped.
YORKHILL, one of four Willie Mullins-trained runners, is unbeaten in four starts under Rules, winning as an odds-on shot should in a maiden hurdle and then in the Grade 2 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, accounting for O O Seven and Welsh Shadow. Fluent at his hurdles, the drying ground will suit this former 3m point-to-point winner. He was played late at Sandown and should stay on up the hill.
A Toi Phil jumped accurately and fluently in winning a Grade 2 at Leopardstown in late January, staying on strongly, having led his rivals a merry dance when hitting the front earlier than envisaged. He is still learning and this may come a race or two too soon, but no question he is a smart prospect.
WINNER: YORKHILL
EACH-WAY: O O Seven
2.10 RSA CHASE (GRADE 1)
3m 80y Old Course
FORECAST: More Of That (15/8), No More Heroes (9/4), Blaklion (8/1), Roi Des Francs (8/1), Seeyouatmidnight (8/1), Vyta Du Roc (10/1), Shaneshill (16/1), Le Mercurey (33/1)
ANALYSIS: A decent renewal, with six of the eight-strong field winning last time and all have claims in an open contest. More Of That won the World Hurdle two years ago and has had just three runs since owing to wind problems and a broken blood vessel. He won as he liked on is chasing bow here in November (a race won in previous years by the likes of Denman and Imperial Commander), and his win in a three-runner affair over 2m5f here in December did not tell us much. He has plenty of pace but connections were thinking in terms of the Gold Cup, such is the esteem he is held by Jonjo O’Neill.
The Gordon Elliott-trained NO MORE HEROS (NAP, pictured above) has more experience and landed back-to-back Grade 1 novice chases in Ireland on his last two appearances, the latter coming in 3m on heavy ground at Leopardstown. Third in the Albert Bartlett last year, he was among the top staying novice hurdlers last season and has taken to fencing with relish. He also has the makings of being a Gold Cup horse.
Blaklion was beaten in the Grade 2 Dipper here by Seeyouatmidnight, with Le Mercurey third, but bounced back to land the Towton at Wetherby when upped to 3m on heavy ground. There is not much of him, but he stays well and the form of Nigel Twiston-Davies’s are in means you cannot rule out a big run. Seeyouatmidnight’s fencing was not brilliant at Newcastle when scoring last month, but the stiffer pace will help him. He might just lack the class to win this, however.
WINNER: NO MORE HEROES
EACH-WAY: BLAKLION
2.50 CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3)
2m5f 26y Old Course
FORECAST: Diamond King (6/1), Arbre De Vie (7/1), Politologue (7/1), Blazer (10/1), Rock The Kasbah (10/1), Baoulet Delaroque (12/1), Long House Hall (14/1), Brother Tedd (16/1), Avant Tout (20/1), Baron Alco (20/1), Blood Cotil (20/1), Days Of Heaven (20/1), Qewy (20/1), Sgt Reckless (20/1), Volnay De Thaix (20/1), Waxies Dargle (20/1), Beast Of Burden (25/1), Call The Cops (25/1), Commissioned (25/1), Hunters Hoof (25/1), One For Harry (25/1), The Romford Pele (25/1), Theinval (25/1), Three Kingdoms (25/1), Ubak (25/1), Mister Fizz (50/1)
ANALYSIS: The usual lottery. Medinas (2013), What’s Up Boys (2000) and Idole First (2005) scored at 33/1 and they are the longest-priced winners, while Olympian (1993) and Xenophon (2003) were successful at 4/1, the shortest-priced scorers – and they are also the only two favourites to have obliged. Six of the last 10 winners won last time out.
Diamond King landed a heavy-ground affair at Punchestwon in January and Gordon Elliott felt his target would be the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ hurdle, so it is interesting he lines up here. He has plenty of stamina for this trip.
Arbre De Vie, fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett, stayed on well behind Sort It Out at Punchestown on his first crack at handicap company in May before making his seasonal bow over fences at Thurles in January (did not jump fluently). Is this an afterthought or the plan? He has bags of talent and could relish a return to this track.
Politologue won a Listed novices’ hurdle at Exeter beating trees, opening his account at the third time of asking, having previously given the unbeaten Barters Hill a fright in the Challow Hurdle. Paul Nicholls won this last year and stepping him back up to this trip should benefit.
Stablemate Baoulet Delaroque won at Huntingdon in a quick time, following up his easy Wincanton win a week previously. He has had a month off and will be all the better for it.
Blazer was favourite for a competitive Grade 3 at Newbury but the run came just six days after he won at Leopardstown and he disappointed. This good-actioned horse will benefit from drying ground.
ROCK THE KAZBAH followed up his Haydock success off an 8lb higher mark when scoring in soft ground in a Grade 3 at Ascot beating the in-form Baron Alco and Lil Rockerfeller (who ran in yesterday’s Champion Hurdle). That form looks decent, although soft ground is important to Richard Johnson’s (above) mount.
Long House Hall won a handicap hurdle here last April and after starting the season with a novice chase win, he was next seen in October after a five-month break, but suffered a heavy fall back at Cheltenham. He reverts to hurdling and as long as his confidence has not been damaged, he looks a Dan Skelton dark horse.
WINNER: ROCK THE KAZBAH
EACH-WAY: BARON ALCO
3.30 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (GRADE 1)
1m7f 199y Old Course
FORECAST: Un De Sceaux (4/6), Sprinter Sacre (9/2), Dodging Bullets (10/1), Felix Yonger (12/1), Special Tiara (12/1), Sire De Grugy (14/1), God’s Own (25/1), Sizing Granite (25/1), Somersby (33/1), Just Cameron (66/1)
ANALYSIS: UN DE SCEAUX (above) made all the running in last year’s Arkle and beat God’s Own by six lengths. Having his first start for eight months, he was a bit keen when tipping up at Leopardstown over Christmas, but landed the Clarence House Chase at Ascot subsequently, with former Champion Chase winner Sire De Grugy unable to land a blow. Willie Mullins’s 8yo is clearly the one to beat.
Sprinter Scare and Dodging Bullets have also both won this in the past. Nicky Henderson’s 10yo, who has suffered from an irregular heartbeat, will bid for a third success in the race after returning to something like his best this season, landing the Cheltenham Chase and the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, holding off Sire De Grugy.
Dodging Bullets has only run once this season, and was a lacklustre second in the Game Spirit Chase at a time when the Paul Nicholls string was out of form. He should be a lot straighter today and the ground may be turning in his favour.
Last year’s third Special Tiara needs quicker ground, while Felix Yonger, Sizing Granite and Just Cameron appear to hold place claims at best.
WINNER: UN DE SCEAUX
EACH-WAY: DODGING BULLETS
4.10 GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
3m6f 37y Cross-County Course
FORECAST: Josies Orders (9/4), Balthazar King (11/2), Quantitativeeasing (6/1), Any Currency (8/1), Sire Collonges (10/1), Ballyboker Bridge (12/1), Third Intention (12/1), Cantlow (16/1), Rivage D'Or (16/1), Bless The Wings (20/1), Dolatulo (20/1), Love Rory (25/1), Uncle Junior (25/1), Rossvoss (33/1), Utah De La Coquais (33/1), Valadom (33/1)
VERDICT: For the first time in 11 years, this is not being run as a handicap, so you would expect the class horses to come to the fore over these unique fences.
Dual winner Balthazar King is having his first run since falling in the Grand National last April and is approaching the veteran stage at the age of 12.
Quantitativeeasing was going really strongly in this when carried out two out in this race last year. He landed a 3m chase at Punchestown in November and blew the cobwebs away over hurdles at Navan last month. But Nina Carberry switches to Enda Bolger stablemate JOSIES ORDERS (above), who won twice over this unique course in November and December. At the age of 8, he is the up-and-comer in this division.
Any Currency flopped that day but is always thereabouts in these events, though now 13, you have to wonder if his chance has passed. Sire Collonges was runner-up to Josies Orders in December and if there are any mishaps, he could be the one to take advantage.
Ballyboker Bridge, who was previously sixth in the Risk Of Thunder Chase at Punchestown, made decent progress to be third to Josies Orders, with Bless The Wings fourth and Valadom fifth. That represents the strongest form and it will take a good one to lower the selection’s colours.
WINNER: JOSIES ORDERS
EACH-WAY: BLESS THE WINGS
4.50 FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3)
2m 87y
FORECAST: Diego Du Charmil (11/2), Campeador (7/1), Fixe Le Kap (10/1), Messire Des Obeaux (10/1), Missy Tata (10/1), Jaleo (12/1), Voix Du Reve (12/1), Ardamir (14/1), Le Curieux (14/1), Kasakh Noir (16/1), Our Thomas (16/1), Akavit (20/1), Coo Star Sivola (20/1), Duke Of Medina (20/1), Duke Street (20/1), Harley Rebel (20/1), Pillard (20/1), Romain De Senam (20/1), Wolfcatcher (20/1), Doubly Clever (25/1), Paddys Runner (25/1), Chic Name (33/1)
ANALYSIS: Always a tricky puzzle to solve. Five of the last 10 winners has starting prices of 20/1 or bigger, with the last three returning odds of 40/1, 25/1 and 33/1 respectively.
The stats say this is one race Willie Mullins cannot win. His last 11 runners have finished unplaced, so Voix Du Reve, who disappointed at Fairyhouse last time, is up against it, even with the addition of headgear.
Paul Nicholls saddled the winner last year and Diego Du Charmil will be popular. He has had just three runs – all in France – so the handicapper has not had much to go on and he is an interesting stable debutant.
Missy Tata has not been seen since November, but despite swishing her tail, Gordon Elliott’s runner was a fair second to a fair sort in Rashaan at Fairyhouse and holds claims.
Coo Star Sivola was runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle Trial on his British debut for Nick Williams, so is proven on the track. He got bogged down in the mud at Chepstow last time, with Chic Name just ahead. Quicker ground should see the former reverse those placings.
Messire Des Obeaux was keen on his British debut in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock and will be all the better for that. Alan King (above) is also represented by ARDAMIR, who jumped fluently and stayed on really well at Doncaster to beat Our Thomas. He has been rejuvenated by a breathing operation and, like his stablemate, is at the right end of the weights.
Pillard will doubtless have support, hailing for the Jonjo O’Neill yard. He gets in off a low weight, having twice finished runner-up on his last two starts and thus not spoiling his handicap mark. He is probably better than he has shown.
Hat-trick-seeking Harley Rebel has been well campaigned by Neil Mulholland and he defied an 8lb rise with ease at Sandown last time. He is turned out under a penalty today and more improvement is anticipated. Better ground and a stiff 2m look right up his street.
WINNER: ARDAMIR
EACH-WAY: COO STAR SIVOLA
5.30 WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (GRADE 1)
2m 87y
FORECAST: Ballyandy (11/2), Augusta Kate (6/1), Avenir D'une Vie (8/1), Castello Sforza (8/1), New To This Town (8/1), Bacardys (10/1), Coeur Blimey (10/1), High Bridge (12/1), First Figaro (14/1), Westend Story (14/1), Battleford (16/1), Very Much So (16/1), Compadre (20/1), Turcagua (20/1), Rather Be (25/1), Ballymalin (33/1), Criq Rock (33/1), Onthewesternfront (33/1), Pride Of Lecale (33/1), Geordie Des Champs (50/1), King Uther (50/1), Spirit Of Kayf (50/1), Winsome Bucks (50/1), Jot'em Down (66/1)
ANALYSIS: Willie Mullins (above) has a fine record in this, saddling four of the last 11 winners and eight in total. The last 10 winners all had won their previous start, but there have been just two winning favourites in that span and only three in the last 20 runnings.
Coeur Blimey is the only horse to inflict a defeat on Ballyandy, but did it with the help of a 4lb weight concession and the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard is in ripe form, so it is feasible the Newbury Listed bumper hero will turn the tables on a track that he has already been successful upon.
Unbeaten mare Augusta Kate is one of seven represented by Mullins but AVENIR D’UNE VIE (NB) looks the first string. He was beaten by New To This Town at Gowran in January, but was not quite right that day and was conceding 7lb to the winner. Westend Story represents the powerful Philip Hobbs yard and has won both is starts under Rules but there is sure to be support for Castello Sforza, another Mullins inmate, who won on his Fairyhouse debut in April and has not been seen out since. He is clearly smart and a few dogs have been barking his name.
High Bridge landed the odds with ease on his fourth start at Catterick in December, form subsequently franked by the runner-up, so John Ferguson’s runner is not without hope.
WINNER: AVENIR D’UNE VIE
EACH-WAY: HIGH BRIDGE
OTHER MEETINGS:
BANGOR-ON-DEE: 2.25 Magic Money, 3.05 Whiskey Chaser, 3.45 Boy In A Bentley, 4.25 Eco Warrior, 5.05 Rocky Stone, 5.40 Diamond Rock
SOUTHWELL: 1.20 Red Touch, 1.55 Be My Sea, 2.35 Street Duel, 3.15 Remarkable, 3.55 Ian’s Memory, 4.35 Sadie Babes, 5.15 Bertie Buoy, 5.50 Harwoods Star
KEMPTON PARK: 6.05 Lions Charge, 6.40 Maison Brillet, 7.10 Pike Corner Cross, 7.40 Dangerous Thought, 8.10 Chelwood Gate, 8.40 Dark Side Princess, 9.10 Rigolleto
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