Jared Goff's futile attempt to unseat Josh Allen's MVP run, Kyler Murray's backslide and Week 15 QB ranks

Josh Allen doesn't lead this week's quarterback rankings. His decent, not incredible, completion rate held him back in the formula.

This does not mean Josh Allen is not the best quarterback in the NFL, because he is.

Allen's six touchdown performance in Week 14 may have given him the unique honor of vaulting into undisputed most valuable player territory in a loss. Buffalo's defense couldn't handle Matthew Stafford on the road -- more on that later -- but Allen kept the AFC East champion Bills alive into the waning seconds thanks to three touchdowns each through the air and on land.

We know where Allen stands. Who's ahead of him? Who is nipping at his heels? And who has been 2024's most frustrating quarterback?

Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 35 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 224 snaps through 14 weeks — you get a graphic that looks like this:

Suffice to say, you don't want your quarterback to wind up in the bottom right quadrant. That area is currently a turf war between Anthony Richardson and Cooper Rush, one of whom may be able to escape and one who probably will not. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. Elite (but No. 2 is actually No. 1)

1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.179 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.173

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.172

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.172

As previously mentioned, Allen's low CPOE puts him in second place. This is misleading. His 0.332 adjusted EPA per game is significantly higher than anyone else in the league right now -- Jackson clocks in at second with a 0.275. He's 20 percent more valuable on any given down than any other quarterback in the NFL.

That's the vicious beauty of Allen's game. He's a devastating runner capable of putting up multiple touchdowns on the ground or through the air, sometimes doing both in the same game. A limited receiving corps has reduced his devastating downfield passing and it hasn't mattered because few players in the league can improvise at Josh Allen's level.

But Goff is thriving alongside a cache of playmakers, Tagovailoa has proved his value to the Dolphins even if his injury history is terrifying and Jackson continues to thrive in a way that should terrify AFC defenses. If your quarterback is in this tier, you're feeling pretty good about the immediate future -- Tagovailoa's absences aside.

2. A worthy MVP peloton

5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.157 EPA+CPOE composite

6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.153

7. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.152

8. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.148

9. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.144

10. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.140

Let's talk about Darnold, who saw the potential for Kirk Cousins's revenge game in Week 14 and instead made his predecessor look like a total chump. He threw five touchdown passes to Cousins's zero, pushing Minnesota to 11-2 under his stewardship. That's remarkable; Darnold had 10 total wins as a starter between 2020 and 2023.

Wilson's rise isn't quite as dramatic -- his composite numbers were fine in 2023 even if the Broncos paid him $75 million to go away after that season. Still, he's brought some hope to a team that hasn't had a losing record under Mike Tomlin but also hasn't won a playoff game since the 2016 season. His ability to play beyond the game script in Pittsburgh, paired with a viable downfield passing game, has made life easier for everyone.

3. Occasionally devastating, which cuts both ways

11. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.130 EPA+CPOE composite

12. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.123

13. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.122

14. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.121

Love's composite rank through Week 10: 18th

Toyotathon begins.

Love's composite rank after Week 10: 3rd

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the evidence is compelling. You have no choice but to brand Jordan Love a Toyotathon Merchant of the highest degree.

4. Elevators to greatness or escalators to replacement-caliber quarterbacking

15. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.108 EPA+CPOE composite

16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.016

17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.100

18. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.098

19. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.092

20. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.083

Murray's composite ranks since Week 11's bye: Eighth, 10th, 13th, 13th and now 15th. Maybe it's not the Call of Duty curve, but it's clear he's once again fading as the season wears on. Cousins is in a similar boat as teams realize they only need modest pressure to break his brain. He's slipped from a top 10-adjacent spot to potentially falling from the top 20 thanks to a zero touchdown, eight interception streak over his last four games. Stafford, bucking this trend, remains an unchanging, evolution-proof dinosaur lurking in the swamp waiting to destroy secondaries with ludicrous efficiency.

5. A couple bright spots in a depressing plane

21. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns: 0.071 EPA+CPOE composite

22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.070

23. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.061

24. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.061

25. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.060

26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.053

27. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

28. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.046

Maye and Nix have both shown upward mobility in these rankings lately. Now they'll each get the chance to shine following Week 14 byes. Rodgers performed well enough to earn a win against the Dolphins Sunday, even if that's not what happened. Ultimately, that's great news for a Jets team who could really use a high draft pick in 2025.

Stroud's place is concerning. He's also coming off a bye and, unlike everyone on this tier besides Nix, has realistic playoff hopes (thanks in large part to the overwhelming crappiness of the AFC South). Can that extra week jump start his game and return him to 2023 form? Or will a sophomore slump continue to hang over the head of last season's offensive rookie of the year?

6. Ooooof.

29. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.036 EPA+CPOE composite

30. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.033

31. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.026

32. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.022

33. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

It speaks to how bad Young was to begin 2024 that he's only ranked 32nd despite playing the best football of his NFL career over the last month. He's got an undermanned Panthers team playing feisty. That won't be enough to push Carolina anywhere near .500, but it could screw up some playoff hopes along the way.

7. Ew.

34. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.018 EPA+CPOE composite

35. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys: -0.032

Richardson's bye kept him from capitalizing on the momentum of Week 13's comeback win over the Patriots. Rush couldn't rally the Cowboys to a win on Monday Night Football and was replaced on the alternate broadcast with Homer Simpson. It's a cold world out there.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Jared Goff's futile attempt to unseat Josh Allen's MVP run, Kyler Murray's backslide and Week 15 QB ranks