Manchester City’s timing in the transfer market proves that they have joined the global elite

Manchester City’s transfer window was quite interesting. Before most other clubs have even started to make their moves, City have already completed multiple major signings like Gundogan and Nolito. It isn’t just this window, in the past few transfer windows Manchester City also pursued the strategy of getting all their business done well before the deadline. This strategy isn’t just a stylistic preference; it is a sign that Manchester City have truly joined the global footballing elite.

Every teacher that I ever had insists that the path to success is to not wait until the last minute. So the question is, if a 12-year-old can be taught to not start an essay the day before it is due, why do many well-known clubs still leave their transfer dealings to deadline day? Sure, a case could be made for why some deals are completed on deadline day (for instance, a long term injury in early season forcing the club to search for a replacement), but for the most part, I think it could be argued that almost every transfer would benefit both clubs if it was completed early.

So why do clubs still drag transfers to the last day? The transfer window is when you realize the not all clubs are created equal, some are just wealthier and higher and status in others. The easiest way to judge a club’s wealth and status is simply to look at when they are conducting their business.

Football operates under a system of trickle-down economics. As wealthy top flight clubs buy players, the money at the top slowly trickles down the levels. For instance, if a title contending club buys a player from a lower table club for £30 million, that £30 million would in turn get spent on multiple second division players, forcing those clubs to spend on poaching talent from even lower level clubs. Combined with solidarity payments, you would quickly realize that much of the footballing world couldn’t actually spend money unless other clubs spend first.

Manchester City is one of the few clubs at the top of the food chain. We can spend early and spend a lot. Manchester City is in this case an example of what economists refer to as primary industry. City brings money into the transfer economy from outside of the transfer economy with their vast sources of non-transfer income. Many other clubs don’t have enough outside income to really pour into transfers, and thus cannot act early like City can.

Getting deals done early is not just a testament to financial strength, but also a sign that Manchester City has become an attractive transfer destination. Sometimes when a club sign’s a player at the last minute it is often a sign a desperation from the player’s side. Players wait until the last minute to sign with a club if they are hoping to move to a better one. City gets deals done quickly and efficiently, implying that players aren’t holding out for a chance to sign for a better team.

The ability to act early in the transfer window without having to sell players first is the sign that Manchester City has joined the global elite. Acting early has its advantages, and this is why Manchester City has the potential to constantly contend for the title. Other clubs can spend, but spending money later isn’t nearly as effective as early on in the transfer window.

Talent in football has a pyramid like distribution. At the bottom lies most of the world who can’t play, then above them lies the people who can only kick a ball around a park, and so on. At the top of the pyramid, there might be a handful of genuine world class players at each position, and the number of players in each tier rapidly increase for every tier you go “down” the pyramid. So for example, there’s a handful of truly top tier strikers such as Aguero and Suarez, but if we were to look for premier league average strikers, arguably there are tens of them out there. If we go down a bit further and look for strikers competent enough to warm a premier league bench, well there’s probably hundreds of them.

This is why player prices are not proportional to their ability or their impact. For instance, is a £50 million striker truly going to be “twice as good” as a £25 million striker? Due to the fact that only 11 players can play for a team at any given time, top teams are inevitably forced to pay dis-proportionally for marginal improvement, especially well rounded clubs like Manchester City who don’t have extreme liabilities on the team.

For top teams there might only be a handful of players at each position that would improve the club. Acting early simply means that City has the best chance of not just getting the big signings but the best fits too. The fact that Manchester City starts and makes moves early ensures that they can approach their top target, and if it doesn’t work out, quickly move on to alternatives.

Other clubs spend vast sums too, but if they cannot get their business done early they will be at an inherent disadvantage compared to clubs like Manchester City who get their business done as soon as the window opens. Remember, leaving it to the last minute means that often a club’s first choice is no longer available. Selling clubs also know that the buyers are desperate to get the deal done as the transfer deadline draws close and drive up the price accordingly. Remember how Manchester United payed over Fellani’s release clause near the deadline to get him?

Next time when you wonder why there is so little transfer deadline drama from Manchester City, don’t forget, not having any is better. Manchester City has undeniably reached the top of the transfer food chain, the timing of their transfers proves it.