Michael Edwards gamble just became clearer as Liverpool must avoid Jurgen Klopp nightmare
It was a summer of change at Liverpool.. The headline was the arrival of Arne Slot to take over from Jurgen Klopp, but plenty hailed the return of Michael Edwards as an appointment of equal or even greater significance — a theory which could soon be put to the test.
Renowned for his transfer market expertise as Liverpool sporting director, Edwards returned ahead of the window in a "CEO of Football" capacity for FSG. While he is no longer responsible for the specific signings the club makes (a duty that falls to Richard Hughes), the buck presumably more or less stops with him as he sets about shaping the overarching strategy.
As a result, there was much anticipation about who would become the first signing of the Slot era under Edwards' watchful eye. We almost went the whole summer without finding out the answer, as Liverpool took what was coined an "opportunistic" approach in a market where opportunities were not especially forthcoming.
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The one signing that did happen seemed to defy a lot of Edwards stereotypes from his first spell with the club. The arrival of Federico Chiesa came as something of a surprise.
Turning 27 later this month, Chiesa is not the long-term heir to any of the existing front line. He's far from old, but this signing was certainly not an example of the dynasty-building succession planning Edwards sought to execute in his time as sporting director.
For an initial fee of just $13m (£10m/€12m), the deal certainly had the apparent hallmarks of Edwards' notorious eye for value, seizing on Chiesa's rapidly expiring contract. But that was not the only reason for the significant discount.
There are no two ways about it: Liverpool has rolled the dice on Chiesa's injury history. Since suffering a severe ACL injury in 2022, Chiesa has been sidelined on 12 separate occasions.
That has now become 13, with Slot confirming that Chiesa will be unavailable against Bologna after picking up a training injury. Relatively innocuous, it has nonetheless brought the risk Liverpool has taken into sharper relief.
Up against big spenders like Manchester City, the reality is that Liverpool simply cannot afford many transfer mistakes. The numbers involved may be relatively low, but signing Chiesa is not a no-risk operation in the way it might be for some clubs with larger budgets and correspondingly higher margins for error.
There are undeniable parallels to the Thiago deal. In that instance, too, Edwards overlooked potential injury concerns in light of the low price and huge talent upsides.
Ultimately, that went down as one of his few transfer market failures, given the Spaniard's availability record in his time at Anfield. Signed as the transformative player Klopp "deserved", Thiago's time at the club descended into something of a nightmare, and he retired from the game altogether upon leaving Liverpool in the summer.
Obviously, it's far too early to consign Chiesa to a similar fate. He may yet be another Edwards success story, and a slight setback while rebuilding his match fitness is not at all out of the ordinary.
However, the stakes are quite high for Edwards and his recruitment team. If the risk/reward equation has been misjudged, then clever opportunism begins to look little better than what goes on at Manchester United, where players are pursued on reputation as much as data and sound judgement.
Hopefully, Edwards knows something we don't, with Slot and his coaching staff renowned at Feyenoord for injury prevention. But this injury for Chiesa brings home the undeniable reality that the first signing of the new era was a big gamble — one which runs the risk of repeating mistakes from the Klopp era if it does not go well.