Midlands Grand National tips: Trends point to Major Dundee and Notachance

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Gaelic Warrior, which was also pinpointed by the trends analysis, finished second, despite the negative statistic about handicap last-time-out runners in Graded contests.

The Midlands Grand National is frequently run on soft or heavy going and that results in only a few finishers and often those are horses carrying a light weight. Winners have included Cheltenham Gold Cup winners The Thinker and Synchronised, while the Pipe stable has done very well in this with seven winners and several placed horses.

The trends below are based on the winners over the last few years, and I have used those to narrow down the field.

  • 17/19 - Aged under 10

  • 17/19 - Had won between 1-4 times over fences

  • 17/19 - Carried 10st-12lb or less

  • 17/19 - Had won over at least three miles (fences)

  • 15/19 - Won by an Irish bred horse

  • 14/19 - Had raced within the last eight weeks

  • 13/19 - Had never run at Uttoxeter before

  • 13/19 - Unplaced favourites

  • 13/19 - Carried 10st-10lb or less

  • 13/19 - Finished in the top three last time out

  • 11/19 - Officially rated 135 or less

  • 10/19 - Returned a double-figure-price in the betting

  • 10/19 - Aged seven or eight years-old

  • 10/19 - Came from the top three in the betting

  • 6/19 - Won last time out

  • 4/19 - Trained by David Pipe

  • 3/19 - Won by an Irish-trained horse

  • 3/19 - Winning favourites

  • 9/12 - Aged 8 or 9

  • 5/10 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey

  • The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11/1

This was actually one of the more straightforward trends analysis I have carried out, as using the trends above I swiftly ended up with just two horses, both with the same trainer.

Major Dundee and Notachance both meet the most criteria and I have a slight preference for Major Dundee, as he has less miles on the clock. The four-and-a-quarter-mile contest is likely to be run on soft going, which makes this a very attritional test for both horse and jockey.

I think Iwilldoit represents the biggest threat, despite his top weight, while the fact that Willie Mullins has entered Captain Kangaroo should always deserve respect.

Both Major Dundee and Notachance are available at 14/1 and 20/1 respectively and I would suggest backing both each way with bookmakers offering additional prices.

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