The most likely Hall of Famer on every MLB team entering 2017

At any given time, perhaps 5 to 10 percent of regular players in the majors are future Hall of Famers, depending on the definition one uses of regular player. It would stand to reason then that every major league team might have at least a player or two destined for Cooperstown.

At any given time, perhaps 5 to 10 percent of regular players in the majors are future Hall of Famers,depending on the definition one uses of regular player. It would stand to reason then that every major league team might have at least a player or two destined for Cooperstown.

The following ranks the most likely Hall of Famer currently on the roster for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, from surefire future selections to players who merely have the best chances on their teams.

Miami Marlins: Ichiro Suzuki

Odds of induction: 95 percent

Ichiro stamped his ticket for Cooperstown with his 3,000th MLB hit last season. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will vote him in at its first opportunity, five years after he retires. The BBWAA might even make him their first unanimous Hall of Fame selection.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Albert Pujols

Odds of induction: 90 percent

Mike Trout has been better than Pujols for the duration of their time together. By sabermetrics, Trout’s also already better than numerous Hall of Famers. But the 25-year-old has only played six seasons. A Hall of Famer needs 10 seasons just to be eligible. While it’s reasonably likely Trout will surpass 10 seasons, anything can happen in baseball. Pujols, meanwhile, could retire tomorrow and his 591 home runs, .307 batting average and 2,825 hits would get him in on the first ballot.

Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre

Odds of induction: 85 percent

Beltre is 58 hits from 3,000 and ranks fourth among third basemen with 90.2 WAR. He’s probably not going to catch all-time leaderMike Schmidt, who has 106.5 WAR. But there’s a reasonable chance Beltre could pass Wade Boggs (91.1 WAR) and Eddie Mathews (96.4 WAR) and have a case as the second-best third baseman in baseball history.

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

Odds of induction: 80 percent

Best hitter of his generation? Cabrera could wind up with this claim by both traditional and sabermetric measures. His 581.4 runs better than average as a hitter are second only to Pujols — and Cabrera is younger and plays in a better hitters’ park. Cabrera’s also won four batting titles, collected the first Triple Crown since 1967, and put himself ontrack for 600 home runs, 3,000 hits and a lifetime batting average safely over .300.

Seattle Mariners: Robinson Cano

Odds of induction: 75 percent

Here’s what Beltre’s case looked like five years or so ago. Cano, 34, is at 2,210 hits and could get to 3,000 within five seasons if he maintains the pace for his career thus far. More impressively, while Beltre’s Hall of Fame case benefited tremendously after he left Safeco Field, Cano hasn’t missed a beat since joining the Mariners three years ago.

MORE: Top seven new candidates on the 2018 HOF ballot

St. Louis Cardinals: Yadier Molina

Odds of induction: 65 percent

Molina's reputation as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball history may or may not be justified. On one hand, he has eight Gold Gloves. But there’s a lot about pitch framing that still isn’t well-known, and Molina’s sabermetric ratings are underwhelming. Also hurting his Hall of Fame case, at least as of this juncture: Molina has just 1,593 hits. As I’ve written multiple times here before, the Hall of Fame hasn’t enshrined a player who’s retired since 1959 with fewer than 2,000 hits.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer

Odds of induction: 60 percent

Can Mauer stay healthy and rebound? Over the past five seasons, he’s averaged 134 games. He’s also been a shell of himself at the plate the past three years, managing a .267/.353/.380 slash. The more Mauer struggles, the more people might forget the player who had a case going early in his career to be the best-hitting catcher in baseball history. That said, his numbers from the early part of his career are what they are and could get him in.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw

Odds of induction: 55 percent

Were I picking an all-time dream team, I’d sooner have Kershaw pitch for it than Jesse Haines, Rube Marquard, Catfish Hunter or any number of other Hall of Fame hurlers. At 126-60 with a 2.37 ERA, Kershaw’s racking up Wins Above Average at a quicker rate than most pitchers in baseball history. But he’s logged just eight seasons and is only 29. Additionally, pitchers face much more volatile career prospects than position players. Give his case a little more time for him to be a sure thing.

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

Odds of induction: 50 percent

Posey stands a better chance of doing more from here on out than Mauer. But his American League counterpart got started earlier, winning three batting titles by his 27th birthday. Mauer looks better by advanced measures as well. Jay Jaffe’s Cooperstown stat JAWS has Mauer as the ninth-best catcher in baseball history, Posey as 26th-best. Mauer’s better by WAR, Wins Above Average and Hall Rating as well.

MORE: Ranking the 25 worst Hall of Fame selections

Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester

Odds of induction: 50 percent

With respect to Kris Bryant, who looks destined for Cooperstown barring injury, Lester’s case is about to kick into high gear. The ace of a young team that could contend for the foreseeable future, 33-year-old Lester has reasonably good odds at 250 wins, currently at 146. Even 300 wins doesn’t seem completely out of the question, though that’s admittedly pushing it.

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve

Odds of induction: 45 percent

Six weeks away from his 27th birthday, Altuve’s already a third of the way to 3,000 hits. He’s also the leader of a young team coming into its own. He has a long way to go to Cooperstown, clearly, but his chances already look promising.

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper

Odds of induction: 40 percent

It’s still so hard to make sense of Cooperstown odds for Harper, who’s looked like the most talented baseball player of his generation since Sports Illustrated put him on its cover when he was 16. That talent propelled him to a resounding 2015 National League Most Valuable Player Award. But that accolade has looked to some extent aberrational as Harper’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. Hopefully, the best is yet to come.

MORE: Hall of Fame could do more for Negro Leaguers

Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen

Odds of induction: 40 percent

In June 2016, I assessed McCutchen’s Hall of Fame case, giving him 60 percent odds at induction. His stock has fallen prodigously since, with McCutchen going on to have the worst season of his career by several different measures. He turned 30 in October and will only face more challenges as he ages. McCutchen was one of baseball’s best players just a few years ago. But the sun could be starting to set on his Hall of Fame chances.

Boston Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia

Odds of induction: 35 percent

On one hand, Pedroia might have a case as one of the more underrated players of his generation, somehow making just four All-Star teams while amassing a fairly solid career statistically. That said, he’s due to turn 34 in August, plays a demanding position, and his health has been no sure thing over the past few years.

Toronto Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson

Odds of induction: 35 percent

I looked at Donaldson’s case last week and gave him 40 percent odds at induction, essentially saying he’s in good company sabermetrically for his past few seasons but that he had a late start to his career. I want to adjust these odds down after seeing some of the other names here.

Baltimore Orioles:Manny Machado

Odds of induction:30 percent

Similar things that can be said about Trout, Kershaw and Harper can be said about Machado. He's one of baseball's brightest young stars, though he'll need several more good years to solidify himself as aHall of Famer.

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto

Odds of induction: 30 percent

Votto could have evangelical supporters for enshrinement in 10 or 15 years. Statistically, his career is already a thing of beauty, with Votto owning a lifetime .313/.425/.536 slash. On the downside, he’s also one of the more underrated players of his generation. He’s also entering his mid-30s and needs a few more years to reach bare essentials for getting a first baseman in Cooperstown, such as 2,000 hits.

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria

Odds of induction: 25 percent

The challenge for Longoria’s Hall of Fame case as of this writing: that .271 lifetime batting average, which might only creep lower as Longoria ages. The longtime Tampa Bay Rays third basemen looks better by any number of more advanced measures, such as Hall Rating, which has Longoria already almost worthy statistically of Cooperstown. He also has reasonably good chances at 400 home runs, with 500 not out of the question.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt

Odds of induction: 25 percent

Expect Goldschmidt’s stock for Cooperstown to keep rising, if he keeps doing what he’s been doing over the early part of his career, averaging 6.1 WAR per 650 plate appearances and twice finishing second for the National League Most Valuable Player Award.

New York Mets: David Wright

Odds of induction: 20 percent

The book is just about closed on Hall of Fame chances for Wright, who’s played just 75 games over the past two seasons. It’s tempting to rate one of the Mets’ young pitchers higher here. But there’s still a chance, however small, that Wright could reclaim his health and a little of what made him arguably the best third baseman in the National League during his prime.

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman

Odds of induction: 20 percent

The Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool notes Freeman’s 138 home runs through his age-26 season being 60th-best in baseball history for this span. The challenge for Freeman will be if he can keep the faith through what looks like a moribund stretch for the Braves. He’s basically Dale Murphy for a newer generation.

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado

Odds of induction: 15 percent

Arenado has come into his own over the past two seasons, leading the National League in home runs and RBIs each season. He’s also got 20.1 WAR through his age-25 season, which is promising. That said, the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool notes that 39 of the 112 players who’ve done this are eligible for the Hall of Fame but not enshrined. Arenado also plays at Coors Field, which adds an automatic discount to his case with some voters.

New York Yankees: CC Sabathia

Odds of induction: 15 percent

Sabathia looked destined for 300 wins at one point before life had other plans for him. He’s bounced back since going to alcohol rehab at the end of the 2015 season. But at 35, with a 223-141 lifetime record, 3.70 ERA and 57.9 WAR, Sabathia’s looking like he will come up short for Cooperstown.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun

Odds of induction: 10 percent

Braun’s case will be an interesting litmus test for how far voters have come in regardto steroids in baseball. He admitted to use a few years ago. But if Braun plays another several years (no sure thing given his injury history), he could wind up with Hall of Fame numbers and make the ballot at a point when a known user or two is already enshrined. The best thing he can do for his case at this point is stay healthy.

Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor

Odds of induction: 10 percent

It’s probably way too soon to put odds on Lindor, the 23-year-old burgeoning star shortstop. This is about where Nomar Garciaparra would have figured were this article written in 1997, and Nomar finished nowhere close to Cooperstown. That said, the best could be yet to come for Lindor and his Indians.

Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer

Odds of induction: 5 percent

Give the Royals their credit: They'verisen to prominence over the past few seasons without a marketable superstar. Hosmer isn’t the closest thing to this by any means, and his Hall of Fame caseis going to tick some people off if it happens. By sabermetrics, he’s been a below-average player thus far. He has an outside chance at 3,000 hits, though.

COOPERSTOWN CASES: Al Oliver | Lou Whitaker | Dave Stieb

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu

Odds of induction:

There likely isn’t enough time for 30-year-old Abreu to establish himself as a Hall of Famer, with Cuba keeping him from the majors until he was 27. He nonetheless looks on his way to an outstanding career.

Oakland Athletics: Ryon Healy

Odds of induction:

Best player most fans have never never heard of? Healy debuted last July, with the third baseman hitting .305 over the final months of the season. It’ll be interesting to see what he does with a full season this year.

San Diego Padres: Wil Myers

Odds of induction:

Many fans protested when the Kansas City Royals traded Myers and others for James Shields and Wade Davis in December 2012, a move that paid huge dividends for Kansas City. It’s finally starting to look like Myers could be the best player from that trade, with him making his first All-Star team last year and offering 3.2 WAR. But the Hall of Fame looks a long, long way off.

Philadelphia Phillies: Odubel Herrera

Odds of induction: Next Bobby Abreu? Herrera’s quietly starting to become a standout player, averaging 4 WAR over his first two seasons and making his first All-Star team in 2016. Keep an eye on the 25-year-old outfielder, though try not to keep as much of an eye on his team.

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