NBA preview and tips: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Golden State have been such value for money in the past month, both as a spectacle and for bettors willing to wager against them. That fruitful run came to an end on Monday night, as the Warriors pulled away to a late 13-point victory over a tired Houston Rockets team.
They've remained in Texas during their rest day on Tuesday and now they make the short hop over to Dallas. The scheduling takes the sting out of the road trip a little, but it doesn't mean this isn't a tough game.
The Mavs are 22-14 at home and they've held visiting teams to 111 points per game. That's a full 13 points better than the Warriors are managing on their travels, so this is another tough game.
If you missed out on earlier previews, then note that Golden State have lost 11 of their last 12 games on the road and failed to cover the spread (handicap) in all 11 of those losses.
The interesting thing about Dallas as a home team is that they're just 11-22 ATS. Despite all those wins, they're failing to cover the handicap. On average they're favoured by just 4 to 5 points as a favourite, and have failed to cover fairly often.
As a home underdog, Dallas are just 1-3 ATS and they're 1-5 ATS in their last six home games overall right now. The Mavericks are not a reliable ATS team and when they do get the job done, it tends to be by narrow margins.
One thing to note about all the times we opposed the Warriors was the quality of their opponents. They weren't always winning teams, but they were extremely tough to beat at home or on a good run of form. Dallas does not look particularly menacing and they haven't been helped by injuries.
Kyrie Irving injured himself on Monday and remains questionable for this game. Luka Doncic has missed five straight games and although he was listed as questionable on Monday, he was later downgraded and missed the game. Markieff Morris is also doubtful.
The Mavericks have a very winnable set of games against the Hornets twice, and the Pacers after this. There's no need to push either player if they aren't ready, and Dallas being without just one of them could swing things the Warriors' way.
Dallas are 0-5 ATS when hosting a team with a losing road record, and the Warriors are 5-2 ATS on the back of covering the spread.
While we know that the Warriors' struggles on the road make them tough to bet on, the feel-good factor of getting a win, combined with the lack of travel between games, and the injury news coming out of Dallas, it could make for a good spot to back them.
If the Mavericks do manage to field Doncic and Irving, then this game takes on a different look and the spread will probably move in favour of the home side. Even so, we'd just have to hope the Warriors ride that wave to victory.
The Warriors are a -1.5 favourite, with the total set at 234.5. This game will be televised live on the BBC at around 11:30pm.
Golden State Warriors -1.5
George Dempsey provides basketball tips as The NBA Tipster on Tipstrr
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