U.S. markets reopen on Thursday following the July 4th holiday. And some investors and traders may actually return to the markets.
Despite the holiday, it’s jobs week in America. Thursday comes with the ADP private payrolls report and the weekly jobless claims report before the market opens. After the open, we’ll get the ISM non-manufacturing index, which will give us an update on the health of the U.S.’s massive services job market. All of this will be a prelude to Friday’s official June jobs report.
With a federal holiday landing in the middle of the week, however, volumes will likely remain light. And if things have felt particularly slow to you this summer, you’re not imagining it.
In a note to clients on Tuesday, analysts at Citi found that trading volumes in the fixed income market have declined by up to 50% during World Cup matches. It’s also been more expensive to trade during these periods, with execution costs rise as much as 20% during these windows. Markets in Europe have seen bigger changes in volumes and execution pricing during the World Cup than in the U.S.
A potential workaround for investors is trading closer to the market close, with Citi finding that market liquidity has improved around the close as more ETFs — many of which execute daily, programmatic hedging trades — have come onto the market.
Alternatively, Citi recommends that investors simply enjoy the World Cup and trade outside of match times.
And for investors who find the fact that a soccer tournament is impacting market dynamics in a measurable way to be ridiculous, keep in mind that there are just three more working days — Friday, next Tuesday, and next Wednesday — that will feature World Cup matches.
Myles Udland is a writer at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @MylesUdland