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NFL betting, odds: A look back at preseason projected win totals

Pete Truszkowski
·6-min read

Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, which means we've officially made it through two-thirds of the regular season. It's been one of the more unpredictable seasons in recent history, with a lot of projected top teams struggling and a bunch of other teams outperforming expectations.

During the offseason, oddsmakers release projected win totals for each team in the league and bettors can bet whether teams will go over or under those posted win totals. With six weeks of football still remaining, a remarkable nine teams have already clinched their preseason win totals and a bunch of other teams are closing in on doing so in the coming weeks. Let's take a look back at the preseason win totals and how each team has done compared to preseason expectations.

Clinched overs

Four teams have already gone over their preseason win total:

  • Atlanta Falcons: Oddsmakers opened the Falcons with a win total set at 4.5 wins. Atlanta has already earned their fifth victory of the season, meaning the over has cashed for anyone who took that side. Atlanta's updated win total is set at 7.5 wins.

  • New York Jets: The New York Jets entered with a low win total of 5.5 wins. They've left that number in the dust as they sit at 7-4 through 12 weeks. With Mike White under center, the Jets are slight -115 betting favorites to make the playoffs in the AFC.

  • Seattle Seahawks: When Geno Smith was named starting quarterback, plenty of people thought the Seahawks were tanking this season. Instead, Geno is a huge favorite to win comeback player of the year, the Seahawks are sizable -275 favorites to make the playoffs and Seattle has already gone over 5.5 wins.

  • Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers expected Philadelphia to be a good team, as their preseason win total was set at 9.5 wins. However, Philadelphia has exceeded all expectations, sitting at 10-1 through 12 weeks. Over bettors cashed with their win this past weekend.

Clinched unders

While the above four teams have way exceeded preseason expectations, there are five teams that have come nowhere close to meeting their preseason goals:

  • Denver Broncos: After acquiring Russell Wilson, many thought the Denver Broncos might take a huge step forward. Instead, they've been impressively bad. Sitting at 3-8, the Broncos have already clinched that they're going under 10.5 wins. Denver's updated win total is just 4.5 wins.

  • Green Bay Packers: Many expected Green Bay to take a small step backwards after shipping Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, but nobody expected a 4-8 record through 12 games. The Packers have no chance of going over 10.5 wins.

  • Indianapolis Colts: The Indianapolis Colts entered as an odds-on favorite to win the AFC South with a win total of 9.5 wins. With just four wins through 12 games, an over is no longer possible for the Colts.

  • Los Angeles Rams: It's been a mess of a season for the defending champions, as they're sitting at 3-8 through 11 games. Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford are both banged up. Under 10.5 wins is already in the win column.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: When Tom Brady ended his retirement, it was expected the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would easily win the NFC South and compete for another Super Bowl. Instead, through 11 games, they have a losing record. If you bet over 11.5 wins, you never had a chance.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 27: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos reacts during the fourth quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Likely overs

While these teams haven't yet clinched going over their preseason win totals just yet, if you're holding an over ticket on one of these teams, you're feeling pretty good:

Likely unders

The same can be said on the other end of the spectrum. While these teams are still mathematically alive to go over their preseason win totals, if you're holding an under ticket, you're feeling good:

  • Arizona Cardinals: Once Arizona loses one more game, under 8.5 wins will be clinched.

  • Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are sitting at 4-8, and as long as they don't go 3-2 in their final five games, under 6.5 wins will be the winning side.

  • Chicago Bears: The Bears have three wins so far. As long as they don't double their win total over their last five games, under 5.5 will be a winner.

  • Cleveland Browns: The return of Deshaun Watson should help, but Cleveland still needs to win five of their last six games to avoid going under 8.5 wins.

  • Houston Texans: Houston has one win through 11 games. As long as they don't win four of their last six, under 4.5 wins will cash.

  • Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders would need to win five of their final six games to go over 8.5 wins.

  • Los Angeles Chargers: As long as the Chargers don't win five of their final six games, under 10.5 wins will be the winning side.

  • New Orleans Saints: One more New Orleans loss will clinch under 8.5 wins for under bettors.

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh would have to win four of their final six games to go over 7.5 wins.

Down to the wire

Usually oddsmakers are pretty spot on with these projections and things come down to the final few weeks. These win totals probably won't be decided until the final week or two of the season:

  • Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore needs to go 4-2 in their last six games to go over 10.5 wins on the season.

  • Buffalo Bills: The Bills need four wins in their last six games to cash the over for anyone who took them to eclipse 11.5 wins.

  • Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati needs to win just three of their final six games to go over 9.5 wins, but their schedule is extremely challenging.

  • Detroit Lions: The Lions have been playing well in recent weeks, and they'll need to go at least 3-3 in their last six games to go over 6.5 wins on the season.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have lost a lot of close games this season. Bettors will need them to go at least 3-3 to cash over 6.5 wins.

  • New England Patriots: The Patriots sit at six wins, which means they need at least three more wins to go over 8.5 wins.

  • Tennessee Titans: Tennessee needs three more wins to go over 9.5 wins. It won't be easy, as they still have games with the Eagles, Cowboys, Chargers and two with the Jaguars.