NFL betting, odds: How to tackle key AFC North teams this season

I’m slowly chipping away at each NFL division for the upcoming season. I don’t like to just look at season win totals; I'm seeking any bit of information that can help me week by week once the season begins. After digging through each team in the AFC North, here are the data points I’m considering for either a preseason future or in-season play.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow was a star last year with 47 touchdowns and just over 4,600 passing yards. Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase was pure heat. Chase ranked third in the NFL for deep targets and fifth for yards after the catch. Taking Chase overs weekly in the prop market was gold. That was, however, against the second-easiest schedule of passing defenses. Burrow and the Bengals' offense played zero games against a top-10 passing defense. It’s no wonder Bengals receivers ranked second in the league in YAC.

This year, the Bengals are expected to face the most difficult schedule of passing defenses. That is a huge shift — the biggest of all 32 teams. For me, that doesn’t translate to hammering the under on Cincinnati's season win total, though. It is still Burrow, and some improvements to the offensive line could keep this team competitive even against a more difficult schedule.

How I’m looking to play the Bengals this season

I’m still interested in backing Chase longest-reception overs. Though the Bengals will face a tough schedule, it won’t be until later in the season. In Weeks 1-6, the Burrow-Chase connection will have opportunities to hit on those overs because all six defenses they will face were ranked 18th or worse in opponent yards per completion. It’s after Week 6 that things could get a bit more difficult. In the 11 remaining games, seven are against teams inside the top half in opponent yards per completion, with six against teams inside the top 10. Give me Chase longest-reception over … just early in the season.

Interesting to note: Last year, the Bengals were underdogs in 15 games. This year, they are underdogs in three. With that big of a swing in perception, I don’t want to touch the season win total.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were plagued by injuries last year with lost players at key positions such as DB, WR, OL and RB. Even QB Lamar Jackson missed some time due to injury. With too many injured players to list, it’s easier to note that the Ravens were ranked 32nd in team health. Injuries could have certainly played a key role in the Ravens' offense ranking 31st in third-down conversion rate, fifth worst in turnover margin and 32nd in sack margin. I’m looking for flips from one season to the next. Just how the Bengals faced the easiest and now face the hardest schedule, the Ravens faced the 16th-hardest schedule last year but are projected to face the second-easiest schedule this year. That alone is enough reason for me to bite on Baltimore once again.

Plus, looking at the quarterbacks the Ravens' defense will face, oh boy, it could feast. If this team stays healthy, it could see Kenny Pickett (rookie), Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold.

How I’m looking to play the Ravens this season

There are a few options that come to mind with this team.

1. Ravens to make the playoff? Yes (-165)

Baltimore was the No. 1 seed after Week 12 then lost six straight games and missed the playoffs. Jackson was out for five of those games. Backup QB Tyler Huntley certainly did well in covering spreads, but the team needed Jackson to close out the wins. Four of the five losses without Jackson were by three points or fewer.

2. Ravens to win AFC North (+155)

The 8-9 Ravens could have finished 14-3. Of the nine losses they had, six were by six points or fewer. With some injury regression and a really friendly schedule, the Ravens could be ready to roll. Plus money? I’ll take it.

3. Backing Ravens ATS, especially as an underdog

The Ravens finished 8-9 ATS overall last season, but went 21-10 ATS in the two seasons prior. Last year seemed to be an exception, so I’ll be looking for Baltimore to cover more spreads — especially as an underdog. The Ravens were 5-1 ATS as underdogs last season, making them 9-1 ATS as underdogs in the last three seasons combined and 14-4 in the last four. That's the best underdog ATS record in the NFL. The Ravens are projected to be underdogs in Week 4 (vs. Buffalo), Week 8 (at Tampa Bay) and Week 18 (at Cincinnati).