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Often, we put too much weight on the quarterback when analyzing the NFL. It's a team game, after all. No quarterback wins a game by himself.
Yet, obviously, the quarterback matters a lot. And that's the Denver Broncos' problem.
The Broncos have a pretty good roster. For as much heat as John Elway took for not fixing the quarterback position in the post-Peyton Manning era, he did hit on plenty of other picks the past few years. New GM George Paton seemed to do well this year in his first draft too.
But, it's the same old QB story in Denver.
Broncos win total: 8.5
The Broncos' win total at BetMGM opened at 7.5. The odds for the Broncos shifted with the Aaron Rodgers rumors, but Rodgers isn't coming. And the win total is still ahead of its opening number in April. The over also has some extra juice; at -135 odds on the over you'll have to bet $135 to win $100.
It's hard to understand what justifies that line move. The line might have come out a little low, but this is still a team that doesn't have an enviable quarterback situation. Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater are battling for the starting spot and they both are flawed. The Broncos are good around them, but not great. The defense could be very good, but I'm still not sure this projects as a 9-win team unless one of the quarterbacks surprises.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
When the Broncos seemed to be a potential spot for Aaron Rodgers, their odds had a pretty crazy drop.
— Yahoo Sportsbook (@YahooSportsbook) April 30, 2021
Once reality set in, the Broncos odds went to +5000. It's not a bet I'd make, but if you're a Broncos fan and want to have some fun, go ahead.
Best player prop: Courtland Sutton receiving yards
Sutton is coming off a torn ACL and while he's a fantastic talent, I'll take the under on BetMGM's line of 975.5 yards.
The Broncos have plenty of talented players in the passing game. Jerry Jeudy, last year's first-round pick, should be better. Noah Fant is a top-10 tight end. K.J. Hamler made plays out of the slot. Both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams can catch it out of the backfield. Sutton might be the Broncos' No. 1 receiver but he won't be a target funnel. Also, he's coming off injury. We can't bank on 17 games. And yes, the quarterback issues play a role.
Sutton is good but the smart play is under 975.5.