The reason projecting the second overall pick has been so difficult is we all think we know what's best for the Houston Texans.
Nobody can believe the Texans will pass on a quarterback. There are four good quarterback prospects in this draft, the Texans don't have a viable starter on the roster and they have the second overall pick. It fits.
Except the Texans don't seem to agree that they need one of the quarterbacks in this draft.
The odds for the second overall pick at BetMGM have been all over the place, but if you believe the market — that's a bit dicey when it comes to NFL draft props — the Texans are not going quarterback.
The big favorite to go second overall on Thursday morning became a defender that was viewed as the top non-quarterback for most of the pre-draft process, lost that status, but might end up being the second pick after all. Adjust your mock drafts accordingly.
Will Anderson Jr. the favorite to go No. 2
Will Anderson Jr., the edge rusher from Alabama, suddenly emerged Thursday as the big favorite to go with the second overall pick.
Anderson wasn't the favorite as people woke up on Thursday. That was Kentucky quarterback Will Levis at +175. But it shifted in a major way over the morning.
Anderson is -350 at BetMGM to go second overall. That's not a lock but it's a heavy favorite. There was no obvious report (or even a random Reddit thread) to shift the odds that much. When odds change in the draft prop market, it's usually from sharp money. Smart bettors apparently have a reason to believe Anderson is going No. 2.
Anderson was seen as an elite prospect since a great freshman season with the Crimson Tide. But in the days leading up to the draft, the buzz for Texas Tech edge defender Tyree Wilson grew and Wilson became the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. Anderson took back that spot as the start of the draft approached.
If Anderson is the pick, as the odds favor, it will be a pick that is debated for a long time.
Will the Texans pass on a QB?
The top quarterbacks on the Texans' roster are Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Neither will get Texans fans excited. Houston has dealt with a lot of bad football and questionable personnel moves the last three seasons, and telling the fan base to wait another year for hope at quarterback is tough.
But if the Texans don't go with a quarterback at No. 2, either by taking Anderson or trading out of the pick (let's not dismiss the idea that the Texans are getting the word out there that Anderson is the pick to perhaps help facilitate a trade with someone looking to move up), they're telling their fans that they're practically tanking another season and perhaps drafting a top QB like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in 2024. That's a tough sell, and there's no guarantee the Texans will get a top pick to take them, or that either prospect will look as good in a year. Anderson would be a nice foundational player to start DeMeco Ryans' time as Texans coach, but it doesn't solve the quarterback problem.
But it seems the Texans are willing to pass on a quarterback, or at least give off that vibe. That would create a trickle down effect to the rest of the top 10. And it would create a lot of conversations about the Texans' decision moving forward.