NFL Mock Draft 2017: Playing percentages to predict first-round picks

Before the 2017 NFL Draft, Vinnie Iyer's final mock draft uses percentages to project who your team will select Thursday night.

There’s a 100 percent chance that 90 percent of 2017 NFL mock drafts are at least 80 percent wrong.

But there's zero wrong with that.

We’re obsessed with mocks until we’re on the clock because they represent hope. Every player is a stud, and no one’s a bust until every team selects a player in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft on Thursday night.

You can guarantee no team is locked into a prospect — even at No. 1 — given the fact that most of the picks are affected by the ones that come right before. In this final mock, it’s time to hedge bets and play the percentages.

NFL Draft: Top 50 prospects | Full Big Board

NFL Mock Draft 2017

1. Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M: 99 percent
Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina: 1 percent

There will be a moment when the Browns think they need to force an unworthy franchise passer this high. That will pass when they know they’ve got a special pass rusher.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford: 70 percent
Jamal Adams, S, LSU: 20 percent
Trubisky: 10 percent

John Lynch has been closing in on the freakish defensive line prospect from his alma mater, but Adams will get good consideration, too, with QB on the backburner early.

3. Chicago Bears

Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State: 60 percent
Adams: 25 percent
Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State: 15 percent

It’s getting pretty clear the Bears will go for secondary help first with the values lining up nicely. The best corner by far in this class trumps safety for them.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 60 percent
Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama: 20 percent
Adams: 10 percent
O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama: 10 percent


The force is strong with the Jaguars and Fournette, but Allen and Adams would also work nicely with their more physical mindset. Howard is an intriguing wild card.


5. Tennessee Titans

Adams: 30 percent
Allen: 30 percent
Lattimore: 30 percent
Hooker: 5 percent
Thomas: 5 percent



Adams has been a big name in Nashville at the top, and it’s high time to get one on the field for Dick LeBeau. The Titans are almost as secondary tied as Chicago early, with Allen being the exception.

6. New York Jets

Trubisky: 20 percent
Deshaun Watson, QB: 20 percent
Lattimore: 20 percent
Adams: 20 percent
Hooker: 10 percent
Howard: 10 percent




The Jets are a key swing pick because of their needs in the secondary vs. their desperation at QB. Trubisky clips Watson at the tape.

7. Los Angeles Chargers

Hooker: 80 percent
Allen: 10 percent
The remaining field: 10 percent

The Chargers have been hooked on Hooker’s playmaking skill set for a while. It would take him going earlier to throw off this pairing.

8. Carolina Panthers

Howard: 30 percent
Fournette: 30 percent
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 30 percent
Thomas: 5 percent
Allen: 5 percent



The Panthers will give offense significantly more consideration than defense to help Cam Newton away from the offensive line. If Fournette is gone, it’s a tough toss-up between two special athletes, Howard and McCaffrey.


9. Cincinnati Bengals

Reuben Foster, ILB, Bengals: 40 percent
Allen: 30 percent
Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee: 10 percent
Wide receiver: 20 percent


Foster is exactly what the Bengals need: a thumper in the middle who won’t disappoint and will be a defensive fixture for several seasons. That will cause Allen to keep sliding.

10. Buffalo Bills

Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan: 30 percent
Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: 25 percent
Howard: 20 percent
Trubisky: 15 percent
A defensive player: 10 percent



The Bills should zone in on a reliable receiver well ahead of a quarterback. Davis is looking like the best guy available for their offensive scheme.

11. New Orleans Saints

Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama: 30 percent
Foster: 20 percent
Barnett: 20 percent
Another cornerback: 10 percent
Another defensive lineman: 10 percent
An offensive player: 10: percent




Humphrey keeps bumping up boards as other corners seem to have more issues and fade. With how things shake out early, he lines up as the best option for a Saints need.

12. Cleveland Browns

Watson: 30 percent
Trubisky: 30 percent
Howard: 30 percent
A defensive player: 10 percent


For all this talk about Trubisky, unless they take him at No. 1 or move up from this pick, the Browns can’t sit and expect to get him at No. 12. Watson has the bigger upside, anyway, for a team that still won’t win for a while.

13. Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 90 percent
Davis: 5 percent
Another wide receiver or QB: 5 percent

The Cards are honing in Mahomes to groom as Bruce Arians’ replacement for Carson Palmer. He’s close to a stone-cold lock now.

14. Philadelphia Eagles

McCaffrey: 25 percent
Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: 25 percent
Barnett: 25 percent
Another cornerback: 25 percent


The Eagles are one of the teams that shouldn’t eliminate Conley from their board, but they should run to turn in their card if McCaffrey is available.


15. Indianapolis Colts

Haason Reddick, LB, Temple: 40 percent
Foster: 20 percent
Barnett: 20 percent
Another defensive edge player: 20 percent


The Colts need guys who can disrupt things upfield inside and out. Reddick in particular can be transcendent in their version of the 3-4. This is the ideal fit, assuming he’s still on the board.

16. Baltimore Ravens

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: 40 percent
Davis: 30 percent
Howard: 15 percent
A cornerback: 15 percent


Williams on many boards is the best and most complete receiver in the draft. The Ravens shouldn’t shy away from the position despite recent disappointments. Pass-catcher dominates the thinking overall here.

17. Washington Redskins

Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 25 percent
A linebacker: 25 percent
A defensive lineman: 20 percent
Another running back: 10 percent
A wide receiver: 10 percent
A quarterback: 10 percent




The Redskins are facing a major swing vote. At this point, it’s a tricky sell to repeal and replace Cook as the safest on-field prospect to put on the card.

18. Tennessee Titans

Allen: 40 percent
John Ross, WR, Washington: 40 percent
A defensive player: 10 percent
Davis: 5 percent
Williams: 5 percent



There’s a real chance Allen, with his shoulder issues, drops several spots. That would make the Titans stray away from Ross and double up to upgrade two very weak spots on the defense.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Barnett: 50 percent
Cook: 40 percent
A safety: 10 percent

If Washington doesn’t take Cook, Tampa Bay will have an extremely hard decision between a dire defensive need at end and a workhorse back it can reunite with Jameis Winston.

20. Denver Broncos

Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin: 70 percent
Forrest Lamp, G/OT, Western Kentucky: 10 percent
Garett Bolles, OT, Utah: 10 percent
A tight end: 10 percent


The Broncos settle on Ramczyk over Bolles and Lamp in the end because he’s the most polished and accomplished offensive lineman in this class to help them solve tackle.

21. Detroit Lions

Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan: 25 percent
T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin: 20 percent
Charles Harris, DE, Missouri: 20 percent
Jarrad Davis, ILB, Florida: 20 percent
Another defensive player: 15 percent



The Lions thinking anything other than defensive front seven help would be shocking. Charlton offers the most pass-rush upside in relation to the value of this pick.


22. Miami Dolphins

Lamp: 60 percent
A defensive end: 15 percent
A linebacker: 15 percent
A cornerback: 10 percent


The Dolphins go back to the offensive line well after lucking out with Laremy Tunsil’s slide last year. Lamp edges out the best defensive player available.

23. New York Giants

Bolles: 60 percent
Ramczyk: 20 percent
Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama: 10 percent
David Njoku, TE, Miami: 10 percent


The Giants will hope the Broncos reverse course again and take Bolles, instead. But his high athletic upside for left tackle is by no means a consolation. Njoku would be too much of a luxury pick at No. 23.

24. Oakland Raiders

Davis: 70 percent
Conley: 10 percent
Another linebacker: 10 percent
Another cornerback: 5 percent
A defensive lineman: 5 percent



The Raiders need that pure clean-up man at inside linebacker to complement Khalil Mack. It will be easy to take Davis once Foster is long gone.

25. Houston Texans

Davis Webb, QB, California: 30 percent
Robinson: 20 percent
Another offensive lineman: 30 percent
Another quarterback: 20 percent


Houston might need to reach a little bit for QB, because it can’t assume either Webb or DeShone Kizer will fall to the second round for them after Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes go in the first.

26. Seattle Seahawks

Robinson: 30 percent
Another offensive lineman: 30 percent
Kevin King, CB, Washington: 20 percent
Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut: 20 percent


Seattle will think long and local about corner, but Robinson sliding here would be too hard to ignore.

27. Kansas City Chiefs

King: 20 percent
Zach Cunningham, OLB, Vanderbilt: 20 percent
Another outside linebacker: 20 percent
An inside linebacker: 20 percent
Another cornerback: 20 percent



Corner and linebacker are neck and neck for the Chiefs, but King, out of the same program as Marcus Peters, will be desirable to pair with Peters.

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28. Dallas Cowboys

Harris: 20 percent
Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA: 20 percent
Watt: 20 percent
Another edge rusher: 20 percent
A cornerback: 20 percent



The Cowboys will think about McKinley and Watt as hybrid players for their defense, but Harris, good enough to go before No. 25, lines up as a terrific value for a position need.

29. Green Bay Packers

Watt: 30 percent
A cornerback: 20 percent
Another linebacker: 20 percent
A defensive lineman: 20 percent
A running back: 10 percent



Turning down the opportunity to keep the younger Watt and his edge motor in Wisconsin will be difficult, as he might end up the best defensive value in the first round.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 20 percent
Melifonwu: 20 percent
Another defensive back: 20 percent
A tight end: 20 percent
A linebacker: 10 percent
A quarterback: 10 percent




The Steelers can’t help but think defense in the first round, but they won’t completely rule out offensive skill for value’s sake. Peppers and Melifonwu are the leaders to help solve safety.

31. Atlanta Falcons

McKinley: 20 percent
Lamp: 20 percent
Another offensive lineman: 20 percent
Another edge rusher: 20 percent
A defensive back: 20 percent



The Falcons will prioritize more pass-rush help over all else. Based on who’s off the board, McKinley looks like the best means toward that end.

32. New Orleans Saints

Ross: 25 percent
A second cornerback: 25 percent
A safety: 25 percent
An edge rusher: 25 percent


The shocker of the first round will be when Ross, the Combine’s speediest prospect, lingers on the board. There’s a good chance the Saints steal their next Brandin Cooks at No. 32.


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