NFL MVP rankings: David Johnson's MVP case, and whether wins should matter

MVP is an individual award. Yet it’s treated as a team award.

Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson has no chance to win MVP and we all know why. His teammates haven’t been good enough to win more games. To hold the Cardinals’ 5-8-1 record against Johnson is strange; it’s not like he’s holding them back. They’d be much worse without him. Yet, that’s the reason.

Some folks used the Houston Texans’ record against J.J. Watt when he was robbed of the 2014 MVP. It made no sense. The only reason the Texans were 9-7 was that Watt had one of the great seasons for a defensive player in NFL history. But that’s the norm. Nobody has ever won NFL MVP on a losing team, according to the NFL MVP Voting blog, and only two have come from non-playoff teams: Johnny Unitas on an 11-1-2 Colts team when there were no wild cards in 1967, and O.J. Simpson’s historic 1973 season on a 9-5 Buffalo Bills team.

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Johnson has been amazing. He’s the first player to reach 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team’s first 14 games. He has 1,938 yards from scrimmage, a pace that would give him about 2,215, which would rank 22nd all time. Getting 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving isn’t even out of the question – Johnson has 800 receiving yards with two games to go. He has 17 touchdowns.

It’s a monster season from Johnson, arguably better statistically than Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Johnson has more yards from scrimmage and more touchdowns. But Johnson isn’t the MVP.

Team success should not be the ultimate measure of an MVP candidate. That’s how we end up with really, really, really bad takes like “Dak Prescott is the NFL MVP!” Football is the ultimate team game and no one player can win or lose a game by himself, so it’s silly to dismiss someone like Johnson because his teammates haven’t been as good as Tom Brady’s teammates or Elliott’s either. But team success is on a candidate’s résumé and needs to be considered to some extent. It’s not the only measure, but it is a measure. Brady has been amazing and also a big part of the New England Patriots going 9-1 with him in the lineup. Aaron Rodgers has gotten red hot and that’s a big reason the Green Bay Packers are now probably favorites to win the NFC North. The Cowboys have built their 12-2 team around Elliott being a workhorse.

Johnson can’t check that box. David Johnson’s 2016 season reminds me of Chris Johnson’s 2,000-yard season in 2009. I was an MVP voter that year and strongly considered Chris Johnson because it was – and still is – one of the greatest seasons of all time. He had 2,509 scrimmage yards, which is still a record. But there were other candidates who also had incredible seasons and helped lift their teams to great records (I voted Drew Brees, Peyton Manning won). It’s not entirely fair, because David Johnson is more responsible for the Cardinals’ five wins than any of the eight losses. And a player on a losing team should absolutely be able to win an MVP in the right situation. But when you aren’t going to the playoffs, just about everything else on the MVP résumé has to be just about perfect.

The Cardinals’ lack of success shouldn’t eliminate Johnson from consideration. He’s a wonderful player. But other candidates in the field have that edge on him, and that ultimately will cost him any outside chance at the award.

Here’s the MVP ballot, and the ballots for the other major awards:

1. Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan – The last two weeks have strengthened Ryan’s case (I don’t think he’ll ultimately win, which I’ll get to in a bit). Without Julio Jones, Ryan has played spectacularly. He has 523 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in wins the Falcons needed, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers challenged them in the NFC South. If you thought Ryan’s success was just because of Jones, he has shown that’s not accurate.

2. New England Patriots QB Tom Brady – Brady needs two big weeks. He did what he had to do last week, but had just 188 yards and no touchdowns last week against a tough Denver Broncos defense. It didn’t help him in this race though. Because of those four missed games, he has much less margin for error than anyone else. Even his per-game stats don’t match Ryan’s at this point.

3. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers – We all know he’s going to end up winning, right? The Packers are going to win on Sunday, then take the NFC North title on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 17 at Detroit. And on that night Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will tell us all for three hours how Rodgers has carried the Packers to six straight wins and the playoffs after saying he thought Green Bay could run the table. Ryan has been better on the whole this season. But when the season is over, voters will have an easier time voting for Rodgers than Ryan, who came into this season with a lot of preconceptions hanging over him. I’m not saying Rodgers would be a bad pick, I just think Ryan would be a better pick at this moment (and to be fair, Rodgers could outplay Ryan over the last two weeks and be the correct pick when the season is done). I don’t think Ryan can overcome the name brand and celebrity of Rodgers, who is probably going to win his third MVP.

4. Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott – I put Rodgers ahead of Elliott because I didn’t want the inevitable winner to be lower than third. Elliott’s brilliance from the beginning of the year to now is unmistakable. But running backs don’t win MVPs anymore without major records or a 2,000-yard season.

5. Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell – There are a lot of players who could fit this fifth spot (our Anthony Sulla-Heffinger made a good argument for Odell Beckham as MVP, which I can appreciate from the standpoint that Beckham is the only dangerous offensive weapon on a good Giants team). Here’s why Bell is here: His per-game stats are amazing, and if he has a huge game against a tremendous Baltimore Ravens defense and helps the Steelers clinch the AFC North on Christmas, he’s going to get a lot of buzz.

Defensive player of the year: This is a tough race to call. I think Von Miller is the best defensive player in the game (with J.J. Watt on IR) but the Broncos are fading. Vic Beasley has been great but he’s not on the same level defending the run as Miller and Khalil Mack are. Landon Collins has been good all season. It’s really up in the air with two weeks to go.

The ballot: 1. Denver Broncos OLB Von Miller. 2. Oakland Raiders DE Khalil Mack. 3. New York Giants S Landon Collins.

Coach of the year: Ask yourself a simple question. If you got to choose any coach in the NFL to lead your team next season, who would it be? Yeah, me too. That’s why he should win this award.

The ballot: 1. New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. 2. Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett. 3. Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio.

Offensive rookie of the year: It’s still Elliott. Dak Prescott had a fine rebound game last week, but I still have no reason to go against Elliott’s wonderful season.

The ballot: 1. Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. 2. Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. 3. Chicago Bears RB Jordan Howard.

Defensive rookie of the year: How about this quote from Cleveland Browns tackle and future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas on San Diego Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa? “As far as rookies go, he’s the most polished pass rusher that I’ve ever seen,” Thomas said, according to the Akron Beacon-Journal. Wow. Bosa has four straight games with at least a half-sack, and takes over the DROY lead again.

The ballot: 1. Bosa. 2. Atlanta Falcons S Keanu Neal. 3. Atlanta Falcons LB Deion Jones.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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