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NFL odds, betting: Do we believe Joe Burrow and the Bengals will remain under targets?

NFL scoring finally got a jolt in Week 4 as teams averaged 24.6 points per game. The 3.6-point uptick is a welcome sign as the league was previously sputtering well below last year's average. After an initial two-week windfall for sharp bettors who targeted unders, the ratio has evened out. Sixty-five percent of games went under the total in the first two weeks, but they only hit a 50% clip in Weeks 3 and 4.

Following trends to identify which teams are impacting scoring positively or negatively is always fun this time of year. The Falcons have been trending all week for starting the season 4-0 ATS, sparking debate over whether that will continue or if the market has already properly adjusted. There are currently four teams that are "unbeaten" from a totals perspective. The Detroit Lions are 4-0 to the over, while Indianapolis, San Francisco and Cincinnati are all 4-0 to the under. I decided to take a look at all four games for each team and identify my best bets.

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 29: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) calls a play during the game against the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 29, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.  (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (O/U 48.5)

I didn't have the Bengals pegged as a team to start the season 4-0 to the under, but it makes sense as the offense has performed well below expectations. After facing the Jets and Dolphins defenses the last two weeks, they will finally get the opportunity against the Ravens to show they can return to last year's form. Everything points to the under, from pace of play to key matchups on the field, but one massive game from Lamar Jackson could end any hope of an under. Two things I learned throughout the first four weeks: The Ravens are capable of explosive plays from anywhere on the field, and a big lead is never safe in Baltimore. The Ravens average the third-most points in the first half (18) and allow the third-most points in the second half (16.8). That signals that we are in for a late Joe Burrow rally that will likely push this one over the total.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (O/U 46.5)

The lovable Lions were must-see TV in August and are even more entertaining now. Dan Campbell's defense has picked up right where it left off last season by allowing every team it faces score at will. The 35.3 points allowed per game are comfortably the league's worst and have been the driver in Detroit games soaring over the total. One would think the Patriots' Matt Patricia paired with a backup quarterback could drag down any total, but not so fast. The Lions' defensive DVOA against the run is dead last in the league, giving the Patriots a favorable path to points. Couple that with New England's 32nd-ranked red zone defense this year, and I can't see how Detroit doesn't move to 5-0 to the over.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (O/U 42.5)

Frank Reich always seems to be the last person in the room to realize a quarterback is washed, and this year's iteration of Groundhog Day is why his Colts are 4-0 to the under. Nevertheless, there is room for optimism this week. Even if Jonathan Taylor sits this one out, a Colts backfield committee should still find success against Denver. The Broncos' defense just allowed 212 yards on the ground to Las Vegas.

Red-zone inefficiencies have sabotaged both teams (the Raiders are 26th and Denver is 32nd), but Denver scored TDs on two of three trips last weekend. QB Russell Wilson sounds confident he will play, and I am betting his newfound willingness to weaponize his mobility will help the Broncos' offense continue to improve. In a game featuring two head coaches desperate for momentum, I see both teams emptying the playbook and pushing this game over the total. The Colts' streak ends on Thursday Night Football.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (O/U 39.5)

Whether it's yards per play, DVOA, defensive success rate, or just plain old points allowed, the 49ers have the best defense in football. After allowing 19 points to Chicago in flooding weather conditions, San Francisco has held its opponents to 10 points or less in three consecutive games. The Niners are 4-0 to the under and have the perfect team to help them hit five straight: the Carolina Panthers. Under coach Matt Rhule, the Panthers are 1-26 when they allow 17 or more points. That tells you all you need to know about their ability to score.

QB Baker Mayfield was supposed to solve that problem, but his play has Panthers fans begging for Sam Darnold to return from injury. Mayfield's 43.9 PFF passing grade ranks 32nd in the league, and his completion percentage dips to 48.1% under pressure this season. I am betting he doesn't fare well against the 49ers, who have the second-most sacks and recorded 35 QB pressures against the Rams on Monday night. I expect Carolina to contribute very little to this total, clearing the path for the 49ers to move 5-0 to the under.

Stats provided by football outsiders, rbsdm, pff, and teamrankings.com.