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NFL Week 4 betting roundup: Cardinals loss costly for bettors, Seahawks win yields $500K return
Entering Week 4 of the NFL season, the game that attracted the most money from bettors at BetMGM was the Arizona Cardinals at the Carolina Panthers.
With former No. 1 draft pick Kyler Murray off to a strong start in his second season, the Cardinals started the year 2-0 before dropping a close one in Week 3 to the Detroit Lions, 26-23. Many anticipated the Cardinals would bounce back against the Panthers, who were 1-2 in their first year under new coach Matt Rhule.
The Cardinals were a three-point road favorite and had the third-highest percentage of the handle at MGM, including bets of $300K at -3.5 and another $230K with the line at Arizona -3.
That game proved to be the biggest winner of the day for MGM as the Panthers cruised to a comfortable 31-21 win, limiting the Cardinals to 262 yards of offense in the process.
“The winners for the house, the big one was the Panthers beating the Cardinals,” Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts, told Yahoo Sports. “We had taken a $300K bet earlier in the week on the Cardinals and [Saturday] night somebody put $30K on the Cardinals. The Panthers winning that game was good for us.”
Other big wins on Sunday for MGM were the Cleveland Browns beating the Dallas Cowboys 49-38 as 3.5-point underdogs and the New York Giants covering the 13.5-point spread in a 17-9 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
The public was “all over” the Cowboys, Stoneback said.
A huge bet on the Seahawks
The biggest winning bet at BetMGM over the weekend came from a massive $550K wager on the Seattle Seahawks to cover against the Miami Dolphins. The bet came in when Seattle was favored by 6.5, a spread that closed at Seahawks -4.5 (it opened at -7) in the biggest line movement of Week 4.
If you had the Seahawks at -4.5, it was a fairly comfortable win in a 31-23 decision. That big bettor would eventually have to sweat out some garbage time shenanigans from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins.
Miami trailed the whole game, but made things interesting by cutting the Seahawks lead to 17-15 with 8:31 to play. On the ensuing possession, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ offense quickly marched down the field for a touchdown, extending the lead back to nine, 24-15.
An interception from Fitzpatrick came on the next drive, and the Seahawks capitalized with another touchdown to make it 31-15 with exactly four minutes left.
From there, Fitzpatrick returned to the field and led the Dolphins on an eight-play, 75-yard scoring drive. The touchdown, a 10-yard Fitzpatrick run, and a two-point conversion cut the Seahawks lead to 31-23 with 1:50 to play.
Miami still had all three of its timeouts, so the Seahawks — after recovering an onside kick — still needed to get a first down to seal the win. And after three Chris Carson runs, a measurement and a review of the spot, Seattle had 10 yards, a first down and were able to kneel out the clock to improve to 4-0.
And the MGM bettor had a $500K win on Seahawks -6.5.
The Seahawks-Dolphins game attracted the most action, with the majority of the money on the Seattle side. Other big losses for MGM included the Buffalo Bills covering three points in a win over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.
“Late money came in on the Eagles,” Stoneback told Yahoo Sports. “That game was at 9.5 shortly before kickoff. In about the last 15 minutes that game went down to 8, so that was not a good game for us.”
MGM dodges a bullet with NFL/NBA parlay
A massive five-team parlay came in at MGM — and the first four legs hit.
The first four parts of the $100K parlay were on NFL games. The bettor correctly had the Baltimore Ravens on the first-half moneyline (-450) against Washington, the Seahawks -3 (-105) in the first half against the Dolphins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beating the Los Angeles Chargers straight up (-350) and the Los Angeles Rams first-half moneyline (-450) against the New York Giants.
All that was left was Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat. The Lakers held a 2-0 lead in the series, and the Heat were without two starters — guard Goran Dragic and big man Bam Adebayo.
To complete the parlay, the Lakers had to cover the first half spread: -5 (-110). Instead, behind a huge effort from Jimmy Butler, Miami took a 58-54 lead into the halftime locker room and eventually won 115-104.
It cost this bettor a return of $598,709.15. Brutal.
“We dodged a bullet there,” Stoneback told Yahoo Sports.
NFL overs continue to surge
Scoring is up in the NFL and it has been evident at the sportsbook. Entering the two Monday night games, the over is 37-24 on the year. That’s nearly a 61% clip.
The over is 9-4 in Week 4, including an 8-1 mark in Sunday’s early window. Here is the breakdown through four weeks:
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 9-4
The over is a popular public play for the two Monday night games. According to MGM, 82.7% of the tickets it has received for the New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs game is on the over with the total currently sitting at 48.5. In the second Monday night game, Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers, the over is attracting 82.4% of the tickets with the total sitting at 56.
The sharp money, however, is on the under — especially in the Patriots-Chiefs game. With Patriots quarterback Cam Newton sidelined after landing on the COVID-19 reserve list, a whopping 87.6% of the handle is on the under. In Falcons-Packers, 68% percent of the money is on the under.
Sunday’s big bet winners
The $550K wager on the Seahawks was the headliner, but there were a few other big winning bets at BetMGM on Sunday:
$175K to win $100K on Bills moneyline (-175) vs. Raiders
$140K to win $100K on two-team, 6.5-point teaser: Bears +10 vs. Colts and Bills +3.5 vs. Raiders
$100K to win $105K on Buccaneers -7 second half vs. Chargers
$100K to win $83,333 on Ravens -12.5 vs. Washington
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