All three of those teams posted records 5.5 games worse than their preseason win totals at BetMGM, in 2022. After acquiring Russell Wilson from Seattle, Denver’s over/under was at 10.5 wins along with Los Angeles. Those totals made sense. The Broncos had a star QB to pair with a stellar defense and the Rams were coming off a Super Bowl title. The teams had the same win totals as the Chiefs and Cowboys.
Instead, both Denver and LA went 5-12 as their terrible, no-good seasons resulted in the firing of Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett just 15 games into his first season and uncertainty surrounding the immediate future of Rams coach Sean McVay.
The Colts’ preseason total was a game worse than the Broncos’ and Rams’ at 9.5. That also made sense before the season. The AFC South looked to be one of the weaker divisions in football and it was easy to envision a scenario where Matt Ryan provided stability at the QB position. Instead, Frank Reich was fired midseason, Ryan was benched and the Colts ended the season with a former player and TV analyst in Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach.
The fourth-biggest underachiever also fired its coach. The Arizona Cardinals went 4-13 after their preseason win total closed at 8.5. Arizona fired coach Kliff Kingsbury on Monday and general manager Steve Keim also stepped down.
On the flip side, two of the top three seeds in the NFC playoffs were the biggest overachievers in the league. Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings finished 4.5 games over their totals. The Eagles got the top seed in the NFC with a 14-3 record and had a preseason total of 9.5. The Vikings were at 8.5 and easily eclipsed that number despite a less-than-stellar point differential and porous rankings in many advanced metrics. The Vikings are the No. 3 seed in the playoffs and take on another overachiever in the New York Giants on Sunday. The Giants were 1.5 wins better than their total of 7.5.
Overall, exactly half the league went under its preseason totals and half the league went over its totals. That 50/50 split was made possible by some late line movement for the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens’ preseason total opened at 9.5 and ticked up to 10.5 right before the season began. Baltimore finished the season at 10-7 after losing to the Bengals in Week 18.
The Ravens were one of six teams to finish within a half-game of its preseason total. Four of those six teams — the Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins and Patriots — finished under their total while the Panthers and Commanders each snuck over their totals in the last week of the season.
Here’s a look at how each team did against its preseason total at BetMGM.
Arizona Cardinals: Under 8.5 (4.5 games under)
Baltimore Ravens: Under 10.5 (0.5)
Chicago Bears: Under 5.5 (2.5)
Cleveland Browns: Under 8.5 (1.5)
Denver Broncos: Under 10.5 (5.5)
Green Bay Packers: Under 10.5 (2.5)
Houston Texans: Under 4.5 (1.5)
Indianapolis Colts: Under 9.5 (5.5)
Las Vegas Raiders: Under 8.5 (2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers: Under 10.5 (0.5)
Los Angeles Rams: Under 10.5 (5.5)
Miami Dolphins: Under 9.5 (0.5)
New England Patriots: Under 8.5 (0.5)
New Orleans Saints: Under 8.5 (1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 11.5 (3.5)
Tennessee Titans: Under 9.5 (2.5)
Atlanta Falcons: Over 4.5 (2.5 games over)
Buffalo Bills: Over 11.5 (1.5)
Carolina Panthers: Over 6.5 (0.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: Over 9.5 (2.5)
Dallas Cowboys: Over 10.5 (1.5)
Detroit Lions: Over 6.5 (2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 6.5 (2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 10.5 (3.5)
Minnesota Vikings: Over 8.5 (4.5)
New York Giants: Over 7.5 (1.5)
New York Jets: Over 5.5 (1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: Over 9.5 (4.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 7.5 (1.5)
San Francisco 49ers: Over 9.5 (3.5)
Seattle Seahawks: Over 5.5 (3.5)
Washington Commanders: Over 7.5 (0.5)