Advertisement

Ashes: No Ben Stokes, no contest for confident Australia in one-sided Ashes

Steven Smith, the Australia captain, is top of the ICC Test batting rankings.

It wouldn’t be the Ashes without hype in the lead-up. This time, we’re away early. Two weeks to go before the women’s series, then another month until the men’s, and we’re already well into the conversation after Ben Stokes was arrested by Bristol police and was made unavailable by the England and Wales Cricket Board. The all-rounder will not be on the first plane to the southern side of the globe, though he hasn’t been entirely ruled out from catching another.

Just between you and me, a handful of my fellow Australians may have indulged in a moment of schadenfreude after this news came through. And a bit more when he was replaced in the squad by Steven Finn, who celebrated his last trip to Australia by forgetting how to bowl. Mostly, though, the mood is disappointment. While true partisans might be relieved at England missing a key player, the average enthusiast wants the world’s best players in the biggest contests. It’s far more appealing than a turnstile of demoralised county chancers.

READ MORE: Finn called up, Stokes won’t travel ‘as it stands’

READ MORE: One of the poorest Australia sides I've seen - Botham

Which, hubris or no, is what England’s touring party makes us anticipate. In a beautiful balancing of national views, the BBC’s Jonathan Agnew called it “one of the weakest squads I’ve seen” and the ABC’s Jim Maxwell said it was “one of the poorest English batting line-ups I have ever seen to come to Australia”. Building a Test order out of James Vince, Dawid Malan, Mark Stoneman and Gary Ballance is like trying to make dinner out of the tins at the back of the pantry.

If Australia’s fast bowlers stay fit, England’s task on bouncy pitches will be immense. That’s said with some trepidation, given a warm breeze has often been enough to twang a paceman’s hamstring. James Pattinson’s vertebrae have already ruined the fantasy of the Four Horsemen of the Yorkerlypse, but Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood are currently intact. The underrated Jackson Bird is in the wings and Peter Siddle is on the comeback trail.

Much has been made of Moeen Ali’s bowling form and his aggressive opponents may give him a chance. But he will have to defy the history that makes Australia a graveyard for visiting off-spinners. For the home side, Nathan Lyon’s spin record in these conditions is at elite level. He will not have forgotten the blows he struck on England’s last visit, nor his recent series-defining efforts in Bangladesh.

In contrast to England, Australia’s batting is mostly set. David Warner has made 14 of his 20 Test centuries on Australian decks. Steve Smith makes them anywhere but averages 75 at home. Usman Khawaja has plundered runs at first drop in the past two southern seasons. Like twin halves of a British referendum, Matt Renshaw has a willingness to leave and to remain; he is calm beyond his years, and starts the series at his native Gabba. Peter Handscomb has proved a ready‑made player.

With the top five sorted, uncertainty below is of less concern. The wicketkeeper, Matthew Wade, has struggled with the bat and may be replaced. Hilton Cartwright is a chance for No6, as per the modern Australian habit of picking a nominal all-rounder whose bowling is so pointless that the captain never uses it, yet who fails to give the reassurance of a specialist batsman. Glenn Maxwell deserves that spot, after a fine century in the cauldron of Ranchi in March, but merit doesn’t count for much against Greg Chappell’s hunches. Alternatively, a few first-class games before Brisbane could throw up another candidate. The mood, then, is quietly confident. Far more so than in 2013, when England had just sealed its own home Ashes 3-0, and looked an even balance of ingredients against a salad of greenhorns and has-beens. Graeme Swann still had a right arm, Alastair Cook still had the captaincy, Jonathan Trott still had a career and Kevin Pietersen still had the tolerance of his team-mates.

We didn’t know that Smith was about to flourish into the world’s most prolific century-maker. We didn’t know Shane Watson would come blazingly good or Ryan Harris’s body would hold together or Brad Haddin would roll one of the game’s great hot streaks. Most of all, we didn’t know Johnson would summon a primal swamp-thing from his deepest core and unleash it, fangs and mud, on an unsuspecting cast of Englishmen who might as well have been written by Gilbert and Sullivan.

That should remind us that Ashes can spring surprises. But at this stage, England Women are the far better shout, still riding the elation of seizing a World Cup with two thrilling games back to back. The day before the sold-out final at Lord’s, every member of Mark Robinson’s team was beaming and relaxed. As a group they’re harmonious. They’ve hit upon a formula, and now is their time.

Meanwhile, Australia are short a captain and the best player in the women’s game. The injured Meg Lanning is unmatchable with the bat and a second tier that is yet to consistently deliver will have to step up. If Stokes’s absence has swung his team low, Lanning’s is England’s best chance for a winter high.