Nottingham top betting tip: Conditions tailor-made for big run from Greatgadian

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15:45 Nottingham: Handicap (1 mile 75 yards) The early favourite has never run on grass before and is also making her handicap debut, which suggests a vulnerability that could open the door for Greatgadian, who is the sole previous winner at this venue having won over this trip in strong handicap company on his only previous visit.

That was as a three-year-old but since then, he confirmed his liking for a galloping mile on fast ground by finishing a close-up third of 10 in a Class 2 handicap at Ascot, a race in which he ran off a mark of 101, five pounds higher than here.

He has had a galloping mile for his two turf runs this year, but the ground has been unsuitable for him on each occasion.

He did well to finish sixth of 22 in the Lincoln at Doncaster in April, where the ground was heavy, while his midfield finish at Newmarket later that month also came with cut in the ground and he was also tried in first-time cheekpieces (which are retained today).

Those last two runs were under a claiming rider with a low 8% strike rate, who is replaced today by Roger Varian's main rider, David Egan.

Greatgadian has been dropped five pounds for those last two runs, for which he has obvious excuses (and his run in the Lincoln was very good in any case), so he has suddenly become very attractively handicapped with a big run looking now that he has his ideal conditions again.  Suggested bet: Greatgadian in the 15:45 at Nottingham

Of the others, Point Lynas is another who thrives over a galloping mile with quick ground, boasting a record of 2122 under those conditions.

He comes here on the back of a near-miss under just those conditions at York last month, where he was beaten a head in the 16-runner Hambleton Handicap.

He has never faced Greatgadian under these conditions before, but the pair did clash at Newmarket on good-to-soft in April, where there was only a head between them.

The fact that Greatgadian is now four pounds better off with his big rival swings things in his favour, particularly given their respective early prices, but Point Lynas is clearly a major player back under these conditions, with stall 2 a very handy draw under regular rider Callum Rodriguez.

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