What the numbers really say about Sean Dyche favourites as big Everton issue exposed
Everton’s stalemate at home to ten-man Brentford on Saturday was their fifth draw of the season.
It has been a case of same old, same old for Sean Dyche’s side this campaign, with the Blues’ goal-tally the joint-second lowest in the league at just ten from 12 games.
The Toffees currently sit 15th in the Premier League table, though they are just two points above the relegation zone. With a tricky run of fixtures ahead, Dyche could be made to Regret his unconvincing start to the season.
Three Everton players have started every league match this campaign: Jordan Pickford, James Tarkowski and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. With a solid sample of 12 matches under their belt, how do their performances show up against the rest when we look at the data on fbref?
The numbers bring up some interesting talking points.
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Jordan Pickford
A key statistic used by analysts when looking at goalkeeper performance is post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (quite the mouthful).
Essentially, the stat looks at the quality of shots a goalkeeper has faced – i.e. how likely they are to score – and compares it with the number of actual number of goals conceded to measure their shot-stopping performance. The higher the number, per 90 minutes, the better the shot-stopping.
Of 22 stoppers with six or more matches played, Pickford ranks thirteenth – just below average. His figure of -0.06 per 90 minutes indicates that he has pretty much conceded the number he should have this season.
So, not too great, but not too bad. Liverpool’s Alisson ranks highest with 0.43, though his sample of six games is much less reliable. This suggests that he prevents 0.4 more goals a match than Pickford.
The England international has attempted 309 long passes this season, more than any other Premier League player. Given Sean Dyche’s playing style, this is perhaps to be expected.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Much like stats can measure a goalkeeper’s shot-stopping, they can also gauge a striker's finishing, through non-penalty goals minus non-penalty expected goals. For Everton’s number nine, the numbers do not look good.
Calvert-Lewin’s number of -1.9 is the third-worst of all 464 players in the Premier League, and the worst for a striker. It suggests that he should have scored around two more goals than he has, given the opportunities he has faced.
Few strikers have totalled more than the 27-year-old’s 2.82 shots per 90 minutes. The problem evidently isn’t a lack of chances, but a lack of cutting edge in front of goal – Blues teammate Beto’s finishing figure of -0.5 isn’t much better.
A silver lining for the striker is that no Premier League player has won more aerial duels than him this season – his total of 50 is four more than Brentford’s Nathan Collins in second. As the numbers suggest, however, this hasn’t brought much joy for the Toffees as of yet.
James Tarkowski
When it comes to availability, there are few players who are as reliable as James Tarkowski.
Since his arrival at Everton in the summer of 2022, the 32-year-old has not missed a minute of Premier League football.
This iron-man quality is reflected in his defensive stats. Tarkowski has made 20 blocks so far this season, the 11 th most in the league. His percentage of aerial duels own is a very impressive 73.1%, the division’s ninth-highest total and fourth-best among centre halves.
The rest of his stats make for fairly unimpressive reading. Of the dribbles he has faced, he has dispossessed 59%, a far cry from the league-leader William Saliba’s figure of 87%.