Open 2018: The top 10 contenders

Ahead of the start of this year's Open, Sky Sports analyst Nick Bradley looks at who will be in contention come Sunday evening for the legendary Claret Jug.

Dustin Johnson

• Age: 34

• Country: US

• Current world ranking: 1

• Best result this season: 1st - FedEx St Jude Classic and Sentry Tournament of Champions

• Best Open finish: T2 (2011)

• Major wins: 1

Strengths

There are many players waiting to shed the “best player to have won just one major”; indeed over 80 per cent of all major championships since 2000 have been won by the one-and-done brigade. 

Dustin Johnson, for me, is the next to become a multiple champion. With four top 12s, including second in 2011 at The Open, he has the links game. A two-time winner on the PGA Tour this year is the essential evidence of form. 

Technically, like Lee Trevino, Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson, the strong clubface Johnson possesses during his backswing allows him to flight the ball better than most in a variance of winds conditions.

Weaknesses

The US Open at Shinnecock Hills gave us a glimpse of the only weakness in Johnson’s game; the inability to be neat and tidy, almost clinical, when it matters. Too many shots came up short or went long. 

Dustin’s shut-to-open clubface swing profile can cause control issues especially with the infusion of adrenalin. His other Achilles heel can be found in his short putting. 

While statistically sound, Dustin’s confidence in the “must-make” department can quickly fall away. If Dustin is going to win this Open, he will do it from slightly behind... when he simply has to be positive.

Rating: 4.5 out of 5

Justin Thomas

• Age: 25

• Country: US

• Current world ranking: 2

• Best result this season: 1st - The Honda Classic and The CJ Cup

• Best Open finish: T53 2016

• Major wins: 1 

Strengths

With eight PGA Tour victories and one major championship, all by the age of 25, it would be an understatement to say that Thomas’ career is trending nicely.

Thomas is a formidable player who is currently enjoying a rich vein of form in the most confident period of his career. With wins at the Honda Classic, the CJ Cup and a second to Mickelson at the WGC in Mexico in the 2018 season, Thomas is in winning form. 

Like Johnson, this shut-faced swinger will be capable of flighting the ball in various wind conditions when he needs to. Ever in his own Great Triumvirate along with Ricky Fowler and buddy Jordan Spieth, Thomas’ tenacity to move beyond them will be his most compelling driving force.

Weaknesses

Thomas crystallises the modern player. With almost equal misses with left and right rough tendencies, it matters not. This is a player who hits it hard, finds it and hits it again. 

The only flaw in this plan when playing Carnoustie is the multitude of shot options from the tee boxes that arrive when the wind decides inevitably to switch. His undoing could be an attitude that convinces him he can overpower Carnoustie and not outplay it. It is for this reason, and this reason alone, he has only made one cut in the Open. 

Rating: 4 out of 5

Justin Rose

• Age: 37

• Country: England

• Current world ranking: 3

• Best result this season: 1st - World Golf Championships and Fort Worth Invitational

• Best Open finish: T4 1998

• Major wins: 1

Strengths

Justin Rose and Carnoustie go together like Lennon and McCartney. Carnoustie is Justin’s British Merion, where he won the 2013 US Open. 

Having worked with Justin for three years, including an Open Championship at Carnoustie in which we finished 12th (which he should have won opening with a 75), I can testify that he is the most resilient player in the field. This season saw him bag two victories in winning the HSBC World Championships and the Fort Worth Invitational. While this is impressive, his non-winning form has been exemplary with one third and six top 10s in 12 starts. 

With Team Rose, refining not just physical but the mental, there will be few players who prep as thoroughly and as diligently as Justin. He has clearly found peace with his putting (10th overall putting average) and, dare I say, he knows his long game better than his instructor probably does nowadays. For Rose, opportunity knocks at Carnoustie.

Weaknesses

So, with all that good stuff going on, where the heck does his attempt at winning fall through the cracks? In a way, Justin will be dealing with superstition and luck. No, I do not mean he will be studying his horoscope this week or carrying a rabbit’s foot. 

The fact is, no one has been screwed over more times by the draw, and thus weather, than Justin in the past 10 Open Championships. To this meteorlogical phenom, he has no control and he should realise so. 

How this plays out mentally is very important for Justin. His temperament demands perfection which is no surprise given his track record at Augusta. For Rose, the perfect preparation, the perfect swing, the perfect numbers and the perfect yardage should all be rewarded by the perfect result. A reality at Augusta, sadly not at Carnoustie. 

So, the one weakness, which can be turned into a strength, knowing this man as I do, is in the ability to accept that when in the air, his part of the deal is done. When it lands on the ground he must let go and simply walk to the next shot.

Rating: 5 out of 5

Brooks Koepka

• Age: 28

• Country: US

• Current world ranking: 4

• Best result this season: 1st US Open

• Best Open finish: T6 (2017)

• Major wins: 2

Strengths

Along with Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka is the freshest top player in the field. From January to almost the end of April, Koepka only played once due to a wrist injury. 

It matters not whether you thought Shinnecock Hills was a debacle, Koepka, the guy with the most energy, resilience and game, won mainly because of his staying power. That aside, to win back-to-back US Opens is an amazing feat and it displays one critical character trait; Koepka is not afraid of majors and does not hold them in too high an esteem. Yes, they are important, but do not let them suffocate your talent through fear. 

Koepka again falls into that strong clubface category of player that relishes windy and challenging conditions.

Weaknesses

This is a difficult one to pinpoint. Koepka played his formative years on the European Challenge Tour and the European Tour. Familiar with UK culture, combined with the fact he has a Northern Irishman on his bag in Ricky Elliott, makes Koepka seem bulletproof in many aspects. 

With all strong-faced players, distance control can be a significant factor especially with downwind/headwind shots. If the wind direction at Carnoustie is east-to-west or visa versa, this may be his only weakness. He is fresh, he is in form and he is my favourite.

Rating: 5 out of 5

Jordan Spieth

• Age: 24

• Country: US

• Current world ranking: 6

• Best result this season: 3rd - The Masters and Houston Open

• Best Open finish: 1st 2017

• Major wins: 3 

Strengths

In this great game, nothing can take the place of familiarity. Knowing that you have climbed Everest once and come back down gives you the realisation that you can do it again. By the age of 25, Jordan Spieth amassed no fewer than 11 PGA Tour victories and three majors including last year’s Open at Royal Birkdale.

While it is easy to dismiss Spieth due to his lack of consistent form, he is a prolific winner. His strength in this regard lies in the reality that if he “does”, and that is a big “does”, find something magical in his preparation, he will no doubt compete to win at Carnoustie.

When on form, his long game displays an extremely stable ball-flight. His pitching and short-game technique is exemplary mainly due to his clubface control through impact. All Spieth needs is a spark of inspiration.

Weaknesses

Spieth has not swung the club well all year. I have watched Spieth on the range many times this year only to witness an ever-growing sense of theorising with his coach, Cameron McCormick. In coach/instructor language, over familiarity with a player can lead to swing blindness in which the coach can no longer discern between what is form and what is function. There is confusion is this regard, the technical regard, in the Spieth camp. His swing is unique, it survives on two key components working together. Unfortunately, they are not at the moment.

As usual, the fragility of any wobbly long game eats into the art of putting. Spieth is currently ranked 147th on the Tour for total putting. His weakness is found in the lack of clarity of what he is doing technically.

Rating: 3.5 out of 5

Rory McIlroy

• Age: 29

• Country: Northern Ireland

• Current world ranking: 8

• Best result this season: 1st - Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Best Open finish: 1st 2014

• Major wins: 4

Strengths

“Rory, Rory Rory”... even you must be scratching your head at all the overthinking you must be doing. As I have documented many times during Sky broadcasts and in my own work, Rory McIlroy is a flow player. The challenge with flow players, like Seve Ballesteros before him, is that when inconsistent play arises, more often than not there is no blueprint to go back to.

Please do not think I refer just to the physical. No, Rory’s biggest challenge is organisational. His swing is looking great. He grew up on links golf. When playing well tee-to-green he merely has to putt average to win and when he spies a favourable finish line, he has an awesome closure rate.

Rory’s strength is his innate talent and in this, he is head and shoulders above the field, but like all talent it still needs a plan. Rory will have to blunder into contention this week I am afraid, and it kills me to say it.

Weaknesses 

Rory’s putting has long been a subject of discussion and rightly so. When his long game is not on all cylinders, it will be his putts from five feet and in that will save a round and inject momentum. His second-round putting statistics leave him 196th on the PGA Tour and putts from the magic eight feet show him to be below average.

He rightly moved from Phil Kenyon to Brad Faxon. This made Rory more playful and creative on the greens, but this still does not mean to say he is any technically better off with either guru. Like all flow players, they need 95 per cent inspiration motivation and five per cent technical discipline.

In my opinion, Rory still has not found himself his own identity with the putter. This week maybe a throw-caution-to-the-wind exercise, in which case, he may just slipstream back into flow.

Rating: 3.5 our of 5

Tommy Fleetwood

• Age: 27

• Country: England

• Current world ranking: 10

• Best result this season: 2nd - US Open

• Best Open finish: T27 The Open

• Major wins: 0

Strengths

Fleetwood has the course record at Carnoustie and in the psyche of a top player, such an achievement is often shelved in a warm rut for future usage. While the conditions are undeniably dissimilar to that of the Dunhill Links, it should still serve as a contingency reminder that he has destroyed these links.

There are four stages to a tour player’s career – formation, concentration, momentum and stability. Fleetwood is currently caught between concentration and momentum, the most potent a player can be. Given the way Tommy played in the final round at Shinnecock Hills, tough courses obviously rally his insatiable “can-do” attitude. With five top-sevens on the PGA Tour in 2018 and his second at the US Open, Tommy has to be thinking WIN at Carnoustie.

Weaknesses

If you look at Fleetwood’s stats, he reads well tee to green: 13th in strokes gained tee to green; ninth in strokes gained off the tee; 32nd in driving distance; and 27th in driving accuracy. But he is 79th in strokes-gained putting; 130th in total putting and 189th in one-putt percentage.

This is a tale of two cities. One called “consistency”, the other called “spotty”. If Tommy can get a better blend of technique with feel and imagination, there is no question he will feature this week. When the putter goes cold, the chill travels into the bag right through to the driver. From here, it will alter your strategy.

Carnoustie needs you to putt well, it will demand that from the fairways and greens you will inevitably miss. Fleetwood is a contender if his short game can mirror the shine of his long game.

Rating: 4 out of 5

Paul Casey

• Age: 40

• Country: GB

• Current world ranking: 14

• Best result this season: 1st - Valspar Championship

• Best Open finish: T3 2010

• Major wins: 0

Strengths

Self-confidence and self-esteem have never been a visible problem for Paul. In this respect, his ability to remain outwardly chipper and upbeat may just see him through this week. His 2018 results have been solid. With a long overdue second win coming at the Valspar, he has also accumulated a 2nd and five top 10s.

Another strength for Paul can be found in his caddie Johnny “Long Socks” McLaren. A headstrong and opinionated man who seems to display the required gravitas to wind Casey’s neck in just when needed, this can be instrumental to a player’s mindset when that inevitable Carnoustie crisis arrives.

Paul’s swing and short game are wholly rhythm-based which means, if the weather is kind and he finds his flow, keep an eye on a fast start for Casey.

Weaknesses

I still do not buy into Casey’s technique. There is a reason why Jason Day said in his press conference, the evening before the last round of the recent Travelers Championship, when Casey held a four-shot lead, that “given Paul’s record to close out tournaments” he felt positive about Sunday’s outcome.

Paul’s swing still displays too much separation between the upper and lower body as it completes. The upper is away from the target. The result: What we call the “disassociation” in the swing is way too much and allows the club head to flail behind the torso. Paul should have won the Travelers. Yes, he is outwardly smiley, but behind that facade, there is a man who knows he should be better than he is.

Rating: 4 out of 5

Patrick Reed

Age:27

Country: US

Current world ranking: 12

Best result this season: 1st - The Masters

Best Open finish: T12 (2016)

Major wins: 1

Strengths

Patrick Reed is a Ferrari that has found a can of petrol. This polemic figure cuts his own cloth, dances to his own tune and does not give a monkey’s about any other person out there. Reed embodies the slogan “Each man for himself”. This year saw Reed open his major bank account with a win at the Masters. He was calm, his dialogue with his caddie was succinct and he adorned the Green Jacket not with the emotion of a player who may think that this would be the only major they would win, but with a calmness that spoke of an assurance of more to come. Reed is a sneaky competitor in so much as when you analyse his game, there is nothing from a statistical viewpoint that jumps out. He is just an all-round great player and his mistakes will be far less costly than any other golfer out there. Reed will not flap when there is the whiff of blood in the air.

Weaknesses

Reed’s technique is perfect for a course like Augusta National. At the top of his swing he displays an open clubface, swings a little in-to-out and, primarily, hits “baby” draws. In essence, he is quite a one-dimensional golfer who is not really comfortable when called to hit it left to right [a fade] in the air. Historically, shut-faced players have done well at The Open; David Duval, Tom Watson, Tom Lehman etc. Reed does not fit into this category. If his preparation has been succinct with a respect to the exam paper in front of him this week, Reed would have strengthened his grip like Jack Nicklaus did prior to the 1978 Open and empowered his shot-making abilities at Carnoustie.

Rating: 4 out of 5

Tiger Woods

Age: 42

Country: US

Current world ranking: 69

Best result this season: T2 Valspar Championship

Best Open finish: 1st

Major wins: 14 

Strengths

Like Koepka, Tiger Woods comes into The Open with the least number of tournament rounds under his belt by any top player. His energy and insatiable desire to play well again are evident for all to see. This is a different Tiger. Since going under the knife, he has dropped the need to blurt out the ‘W’ word in his press conferences. He has physically and thus mentally realised that while Navy seals are formidable between the ages of 20 to 35, we all, ALL, succumb to Father Time in one way or another, revealing the body’s inevitable fragility. He may have given the impression that he was all knowing, all stoic and all Zen Buddhist before surgery, but now he truly is simply because he has no choice. Frankly, it is refreshing to see. In just 11 starts in 2018, Tiger has performed very well with a second, three top 10s and seven top 25s. If the weather is kind, if the caddie is calm and if he manages his energy, Tiger can contend.

Weaknesses

I have watched Tiger play many times this year and there is no question his swing is better than it ever was. The planes are softer, there is less tilt, his transition is less harsh; all of these allow Tiger to “feel the swing through the club head”. If you teach Tiger, do it with the club head... not the body [you can influence the body this way anyway]. His putting is slowly coming around too. You cannot perform as well as he has without some solid putting form. If Tiger is to fail this week, it will be through strategy. Too many times this year I have seen him abandon classic Nicklaus strategy, which was a hallmark in Tiger’s repertoire, before he substituted go-for-broke shots at the wrong time. Was Steve Williams better than Joe LaCava on Tiger’s bag? No question. I have seen too many strategical errors down the stretch from Tiger this year to give me confidence he can finish the job. He needs to employ the same economic wisdom to his course management as he has done with his physical game. Cut out those schoolboy errors, Tiger.

Rating:3 out of 5

Nick Bradley is a Sky Sports analyst www.bradleygolf.com   and  ‪@TheNickBradley