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The best Oscars bets: Who is expected to win at this year's Academy Awards

Left: Margot Robbie in "Barbie." Right: Cillian Murphy in "Oppenheimer."
The popularity of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" may mean more gamblers for this year's Oscars than in years past.Jaap Buitendijk/Warner Bros.; Universal Pictures
  • The 96th annual Academy Awards are on Sunday.

  • From Best Picture to Best Actress, gamblers will be placing bets on movie category winners.

  • Here's where experts say to put your money and what your chances of cashing in are.

The stars won't be the only people with something on the line at the 96th annual Academy Awards on Sunday.

With betting more accessible — and legal — than ever before, movie fans and living-room gamblers will be trying their luck.

There are seven states where you can legally put money on the various trophies this year — and in Ontario, you can go even further and place bets on everything from Jimmy Kimmel's monologue to Margot Robbie's red carpet look. Then, there are the thousands of more casual Oscars pools among friends and colleagues.

While the exact amount of money that bettors are expected to place isn't publicly available, it'll likely be closer to the sum wagered on a regular season NBA game than on the Super Bowl, which the American Gambling Association estimated was $23.1 billion, Bill Speros, a senior betting analyst for Bookies.com, told Business Insider.

That said, this year's Oscars are expected to attract more speculators than recently thanks to box office hits "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer."

"Since Oscar betting became legal, this year is really the first time you have two movies that a lot of people have seen," Speros said. He added that "Oppenheimer" is the favorite to win the night's top prize, with 62% of all the money bet on best picture on DraftKings placed on the film.

Still, the Academy Awards can be harder to game than sports, which have a bevy of statistics for people to pore over. The winners are chosen by the 9,797 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

"With Oscar betting, there's really no data to break down because you are betting on someone's opinion," Speros said. "There have been upsets at the Oscars."

The little data available — like who won the SAG Awards and BAFTAs — is taken into account by experts on GoldDerby, a website dedicated to predicting the results of Hollywood's award shows, to form their predictions. Last year, the group was right on all but four categories: best actor (they thought Austin Butler would get the golden statue for "Elvis," but it went to Brendan Fraser for "The Whale"), best costume design, best makeup and hairstyling, and best production design.

Below is GoldDerby's take on who will win in 2024 — and the odds — as of March 7.

Just remember: Place any wager at your own risk.

"This is gambling," Speros said. "There's no such thing as a sure thing."

Best picture

Winner: "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 6/1
Nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"Barbie"
"The Holdovers"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Past Lives"
"Poor Things"
"The Zone of Interest"

Lily Gladstone attends the 2024 Golden Globes.
Lily Gladstone is the favorite to win the award for best actress.Gilbert Flores/Golden Globes 2024/Getty Images

Best actress in a leading role

Winner: Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Odds: 10/3
Nominees:
Annette Bening, "Nyad"
Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"
Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Best actor in a leading role

Winner: Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 10/3
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
Colman Domingo, "Rustin"
Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"
Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Best director

Winner: Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things"
Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb in "The Holdovers."
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, who plays Mary Lamb in "The Holdovers," has won award after award this season.Seacia Pavao/Focus Features

Best actress in a supporting role

Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"
Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"
America Ferrera, "Barbie"
Jodie Foster, "Nyad"
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

Best actor in a supporting role

Winner: Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"
Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"
Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"

Best adapted screenplay

Winner: "American Fiction"
Odds: 69/20
Nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Barbie"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
"The Zone of Interest"

Best original screenplay

Winner: "Anatomy of a Fall"
Odds: 82/25
Nominees:
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"The Holdovers"
"Maestro"
"May December"
"Past Lives"

Best cinematography

Winner: "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
"El Conde"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"

Best production design

Winner: "Barbie"
Odds: 71/20
Nominees:
"Barbie"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Napoleon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"

Best sound

Winner: "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 10/3
Nominees:
"The Creator"
"Maestro"
"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One"
"Oppenheimer"
"The Zone of Interest"

Best film editing

Winner: "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"The Holdovers"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"

Best costume design

Winner: "Barbie"
Odds: 69/20
Nominees:
"Barbie"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Napoleon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"

Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein holding a cigarette
Bradley Cooper transformed into Leonard Bernstein for Netflix's "Maestro."Netflix

Best makeup and hairstyling

Winner: "Maestro"
Odds: 82/25
Nominees:
"Golda"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
"Society of the Snow"

Best visual effects

Winner: "Godzilla Minus One"
Odds: 10/3
Nominees:
"The Creator"
"Godzilla Minus One"
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One"
"Napoleon"

Best international feature film

Winner: "The Zone of Interest" (United Kingdom)
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
"Io Capitano" (Italy)
"Perfect Days" (Japan)
"Society of the Snow" (Spain)
"The Teachers' Lounge" (Germany)
"The Zone of Interest" (United Kingdom)

Best animated feature film

Winner: "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Odds: 10/3
Nominees:
"The Boys and the Heron"
"Elemental"
"Nimona"
"Robot Dreams"
"Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"

Best live-action short film

Winner: "The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar"
Odds: 82/25
Nominees:
"The After"
"Invincible"
"Knight of Fortune"
"Red, White, and Blue"
"The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar"

Best animated short film

Winner: "War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko"
Odds: 69/20
Nominees:
"Letter to a Pig"
"Ninety-Five Senses"
"Our Uniform"
"Pachyderm"
"War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko"

Best documentary feature film

Winner: "20 Days in Mariupol"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
"Bobi Wine: The People's President"
"The Eternal Memory"
"Four Daughters"
"To Kill a Tiger"
"20 Days in Mariupol"

Best documentary short film

Winner: "The ABCs of Book Banning"
Odds: 17/5
Nominees:
"The ABCs of Book Banning"
"The Barber of Little Rock"
"Island in Between"
"The Last Repair Shop"
"Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó"

Best original score

Winner: "Oppenheimer"
Odds: 16/5
Nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"

Best original song

Winner: "What Was I Made For?" — Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell ("Barbie")
Odds: 82/25
Nominees:
"The Fire Inside" — Diane Warren ("Flamin' Hot")
"I'm Just Ken" — Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt ("Barbie")
"It Never Went Away" — Jon Batiste ("American Symphony")
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" — Scott George ("Killers of the Flower Moon")
"What Was I Made For?" — Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell ("Barbie")

Read the original article on Business Insider