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Power Five conference championship game previews, picks against the spread

Welcome to conference championship week.

With the College Football Playoff rankings set to be revealed on Sunday, all that’s left to do is decide the winners of each conference across the country. And while teams like Georgia and Michigan seem to be locks to make the four-team field, TCU and USC likely need to win their conferences to assure a shot at the national title.

The action begins with the Pac-12 title game on Friday night before a Saturday that will be filled with action all day long.

(Note: All times ET, odds from BetMGM)

ACC: No. 23 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Clemson

Time: 8 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Clemson -7.5 | Total: 63.5

How these teams got here

North Carolina (9-3, 6-2 ACC): Early in the year, it was clear that North Carolina had one of the best offenses in the country but the defense would be an issue. UNC had one of the wildest wins of the season when it beat Appalachian State 63-61 in Boone amid a 3-1 start. From there, UNC won its first six ACC games as redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye emerged as a star. UNC was 9-1, ranked No. 13 and had already clinched the ACC Coastal with two regular season games remaining. The Tar Heels remained in the CFP conversation, but they ended up losing home games to Georgia Tech and NC State to close out the regular season. After a disappointing close to the season, UNC has the chance for some redemption in the ACC title game.

Clemson (10-2, 8-0 ACC): A three-loss record in 2021 was a down year by Clemson’s standards, especially when you consider how poorly the offense played. There were some improvements in 2022 — enough to return to the top of the ACC Atlantic — but the Tigers still underperformed relative to the program’s national championship expectations. For a while, it looked like Clemson may have returned to form. Clemson started 8-0 but ended up getting blown out on the road by Notre Dame. Back-to-back wins followed that defeat in South Bend, but the Tigers were upset at home by rival South Carolina on Saturday. That loss ruined Clemson’s CFP hopes, snapped a 40-game home winning streak and a seven-game winning streak over the Gamecocks.

North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye (10) has helped lead his team to the ACC title game, where it will face Clemson. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye (10) has helped lead his team to the ACC title game, where it will face Clemson. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

What’s on the line

North Carolina: This is just UNC’s second-ever appearance in the ACC title game. Back in 2015, the Tar Heels lost 45-37 to Clemson in what ended up being the first in a streak of six consecutive conference championships for the Tigers. North Carolina hasn’t won a conference championship since 1980 and hasn’t had a season with double-digit victories since 2015.

Clemson: Clemson is no stranger to this stage. The Tigers have participated in eight of the 17 ACC title games since the game was instituted in 2005. That includes six of the last seven. Clemson won six consecutive ACC titles between 2015 and 2020 before its streak ended last year. The only time Clemson lost in the ACC title game came in 2009, a 39-34 loss to Georgia Tech.

Players to watch

North Carolina QB Drake Maye: 298/440 (67.7%), 3.847 yards, 35 TDs; 161 carries, 629 yards, 6 TDs

Clemson RB Will Shipley: 186 carries, 1,092 yards, 14 TDs; 30 receptions, 195 yards

Picks

Nick: UNC +7.5

Sam: UNC +7.5

Big 12: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Kansas State

Time: Noon ET | TV: ABC | Line: TCU -2.5 | Total 62

How these teams got here

TCU (12-0, 9-0 Big 12): The Horned Frogs have just kept on winning. Sure, TCU has caught a few breaks along the way, but most undefeated teams do. TCU had a run during the middle of the season that included four consecutive wins over teams that were either forced to go to their backup quarterbacks or were playing a starting quarterback dealing with an injury. Eight of TCU's 12 wins came by 10 points or fewer, but the season finale was a blowout — a 62-14 win over Iowa State.

Kansas State (9-3, 7-2 Big 12): The Wildcats were forced to make a QB change and it’s worked out very well. Adrian Martinez was one of those injured starters that TCU played in the middle of the season and he was replaced by Will Howard. Howard has been so good in Martinez’s place that he’s set to start the game even with Martinez returning to health. KSU is 4-0 in the four games Howard has started and he’s thrown 11 TDs and just one interception in those wins over Oklahoma State, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas.

TCU running back Kendre Miller (33) is congratulated quarterback Max Duggan (15) after Miller score a touchdown against Baylor in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

What’s on the line

TCU: Just the first College Football Playoff berth in school history. TCU could still be in the playoff even with a loss to Kansas State, but we’re positive that TCU fans don’t want to spend the hours before the playoff show sweating it out. They remember what happened in 2014 as the Horned Frogs got left out of the top four. TCU is also seeking its first-ever outright Big 12 title. The Horned Frogs had a share back in 2014 but haven't had an outright conference championship since winning the Mountain West in 2011.

Kansas State: The Wildcats are playing for their first Big 12 title since 2003 and just their fourth conference title overall. KSU is heading to the Sugar Bowl no matter what happens on Saturday. The Wildcats are in the game as the Big 12 champions with a win and in the game with a loss as the highest-ranked Big 12 team outside of the playoff. K-State can also get to 10 wins for the first time since 2012.

Players to watch

TCU RB Kendre Miller: 199 carries, 1,260 yards, 16 total TDs

Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn: 245 carries, 1,295 yards, 10 total TDs

Picks

Nick: TCU -2.5

Sam: Kansas State +2.5

Big Ten: Purdue vs. No. 2 Michigan

Time: 8 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: UM -17 | Total: 51.5

How these teams got here

Purdue (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten): Purdue started the year 1-2 with losses to Penn State and Syracuse before winning seven of nine down the stretch of the season. There was a four-game winning streak and then back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Iowa. But the Big Ten West was so wide open that the Boilermakers were still in contention. Purdue closed out the regular season with three consecutive wins to get to 8-4 for the second consecutive season. To get to Indianapolis, Purdue knocked off Indiana in the regular season finale on Saturday. The door to the championship game was opened a day earlier when Nebraska upset Iowa. Iowa’s loss allowed Purdue to win its first-ever division title.

Michigan (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten): The route was much more direct for Michigan. After winning the Big Ten and advancing to the College Football Playoff in 2021, the Wolverines embarked on another epic journey through the regular season. Michigan cruised through its non-conference season, had a few close wins early in Big Ten play and then started crushing everyone in its path — until Week 11. Michigan needed a late field goal to sneak past Illinois, setting up another showdown with rival Ohio State. Last year, UM beat OSU for the first time since 2011 to clinch the East. This year, with both teams undefeated, the Wolverines did it again with a 45-23 drubbing in Columbus.

What’s on the line

Purdue: This is a big deal for Purdue. The Boilermakers have never reached the Big Ten championship game before and have the chance to win the conference title for the first time since 2000. Back then, Drew Brees was playing quarterback for Purdue. And if Purdue wins this game, it will earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. The program has two previous Rose Bowl appearances — 1966 and 2000. A win would also put Purdue in position to win 10 games in a season for the first time since 1979.

Michigan: Last year’s victory over Iowa gave Michigan its first outright Big Ten title since 2003. Now, the Wolverines are going for two in a row. Michigan last was the outright Big Ten champion in consecutive seasons in 1991 and 1992. On top of that, a victory assures Michigan a spot in the College Football Playoff. It’s hard to see Michigan being knocked out of the field even with a loss, but seeding is certainly at stake for the Wolverines.

Players to watch

Purdue WR Charlie Jones: 97 receptions, 1,199 yards, 12 touchdowns

Michigan RB Blake Corum: 247 rushes, 1,463 yards, 18 touchdowns

Picks

Nick: Michigan -17

Sam: Purdue +17

Pac-12: No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC

Time: 8 p.m. (Friday) | TV: Fox | Line: USC -3 | Total: 67

How these teams got here

Utah (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12): Utah opened its season in SEC territory and lost a 29-26 heartbreaker to Florida. From there, the Utes won eight of their next nine games. During that stretch, Utah lost a tough one on the road to UCLA and then followed that up by beating USC at home, 43-42, on a two-point conversion in the final minute. Sitting at 8-2, Utah went to Oregon and lost 20-17 in a disappointing effort that looked like it would knock the Utes from Pac-12 title game contention. Instead, everything went Utah’s way on Saturday. Most notably, Oregon blew a lead at Oregon State, opening the door for the Utes to defend their Pac-12 championship vs. USC in Las Vegas.

USC (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12): A year after a miserable 4-8 season, USC is on the verge of reaching the College Football Playoff. The Trojans plucked Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams away from Oklahoma and it has paid off in a major way. USC has been putting up huge numbers on offense all year long while having an opportunistic defense that has forced 26 turnovers. USC started the year 6-0 before that lone blemish at Utah on Oct. 15. Since then, USC has piled up five more wins, including impressive efforts vs. UCLA and Notre Dame in the past two weeks. Now the Trojans have a chance for revenge against the Utes with the conference crown on the line.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams, left, celebrates after USC defeated UCLA 48-45 on Nov. 19, 2022, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
USC quarterback Caleb Williams, left, celebrates after USC defeated UCLA 48-45 on Nov. 19, 2022, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

What’s on the line

Utah: Utah first joined the Pac-12 in 2011 and won its first league title last year, besting Oregon in the championship game. Now the Utes are going for two in a row, as well as the program’s third 10-win season since 2019. With a win, Utah would also get a return trip to the Rose Bowl. Last year, Utah lost to Ohio State in a 48-45 thriller. The Utes would love an opportunity to return to Pasadena.

USC: It’s pretty simple for USC. With a win, the Trojans will reach the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history and have the chance to win a national title for the first time since 2004. Additionally, USC can win its first Pac-12 title since 2017. Before that, USC last won the conference back in 2008. And on an individual level, Williams can further establish himself as the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy.

Players to watch

Utah TE Dalton Kincaid: 66 receptions, 850 yards, 8 touchdowns

USC QB Caleb Williams: 268/407 (65.8%), 3,712 yards, 34 TDs; 97 carries, 351 yards, 10 TDs

Picks

Nick: USC -3

Sam: Utah +3

SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU

Time: 4 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Line: Georgia -17.5 | Total 51.5

How these teams got here

Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC): The Bulldogs once again have the best scoring defense in college football. After allowing 10.2 points per game in 2021, Georgia is giving up 11.3 points a game in 2022 while scoring 38 points per game. The only real nervous game of the season for Georgia fans came against Missouri where the Bulldogs had to storm back in the second half for a 26-22 win. Every other victory has been by at least 10 points and even that 16-6 win over Kentucky felt much more like a game that Georgia was in complete control.

LSU (9-3, 6-2 SEC): The Tigers enter the SEC title game after a disappointing loss to Texas A&M in the final week of the regular season. The loss didn’t mean anything since LSU had the SEC West wrapped up but it was still a relative shock given how poorly Texas A&M has played all season. The Tigers jumped to the top of the West with a 32-31 overtime win over Alabama as part of a five-game win streak that included victories over Florida, Ole Miss and Arkansas. To reach this point in Year 1 under Brian Kelly is a significant achievement.

What’s on the line

Georgia: The Bulldogs seem locked into the College Football Playoff no matter what happens on Saturday. A conference title would be the 14th in school history and the first since 2017 after losing to Alabama in the title game a year ago. Georgia has won just three SEC championship games since the title game was implemented in 1992.

LSU: The loss to A&M ensured that LSU has no shot at the playoff with a win. Had LSU beaten the Aggies, it seemed conceivable the Tigers could be the first two-loss playoff team if they took down Georgia. Instead, LSU needs to win to go to the Sugar Bowl. Otherwise, the Citrus Bowl could be calling. LSU last won the SEC in 2019 en route to the national title. Before that, the Tigers won it in 2007 and 2011 under Les Miles and in 2001 and 2003 under Nick Saban. Now Kelly can get his first.

Players to watch

Georgia TE Brock Bowers: 46 receptions, 645 yards, 8 total TDs

LSU QB Jayden Daniels: 238/347, 2,566 passing yards, 824 rushing yards, 26 total TDs

Picks

Nick: LSU +17.5

Sam: Georgia -17.5

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) will try to help the Bulldogs win an SEC title on Saturday against LSU. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) will try to help the Bulldogs win an SEC title on Saturday against LSU. (AP Photo/John Bazemore) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)