Premier League: Shot-shy Manchester City have nowhere to hide against Arsenal

Manchester City know only three points will do against Arsenal tomorrow.

Manuel Pellegrini has three matches left to hand over a Champions League baton to incoming boss Pep Guardiola now his side cannot qualify by winning this year's tournament.

But City will have to show a bit more attacking intent against an Arsenal side who would confirm their own Champions League place for next season with a victory at The Etihad.

Pellegrini's multi-million pound side were limp against Real Madrid as they lost 1-0 this week.

Last week, at home, they just about managed to hold onto a draw in the first leg of their semi-final. And it was close: according to @11tegen11’s expected goals model, which measures the quality of a given chance, one might have expected a City victory only 2% of the time.

Of course, riding your luck can be a plan itself. Though Atletico Madrid are an elite defensive unit, they did this against Bayern Munich in the match the day before, though even that victory will have been precariously closer to failure than Diego Simeone might be comfortable with.

But whether or not this sort of approach is viable kind of depends on how many times out of 10 this plan works. If that’s more than playing any other way, it’s your only option.

For Manchester City, there were surely other, more logical choices than this game-plan. Presumably out of fear that he would lose the opportunity to make a splash, Pellegrini chose to barely poke his toe in the water.

In the first leg, City managed just four shouts. In preparation for this one, you might think that figuring out how to get your attack going would be something useful to try, especially when that attack is loaded with the likes of Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne.

With Casemiro, Madrid’s only defensive midfielder with any real defensive instincts, injured, there was a gaping opportunity to play Kevin De Bruyne in the centre of the park. Instead, Pellegrini’s attacking line-up manifested itself in lifelessness and a questionable lack of creativity, with Raheem Sterling yet again on the bench. Given European opponents’ documented problems with Theo Walcott in the past, who is technically inferior to Sterling, you would think that the £50m summer signing from Liverpool might have featured more in the competition.

Quite frankly, Pellegrini’s insistence on starting Jesus Navas is beyond bizarre. In the Champion’s League, Sterling has contributed 0.78 non-penalty goals per 90 in 580 minutes; Navas has managed 0.12 in 736 minutes. Maybe it is directness that earns Navas the starting position, and yet Sterling dribbles past a man successfully (2.02) more than him (1.59). Sterling’s average pass length (13m) is lower than Navas’ (15.50m), who repeatedly crosses hopefully into the limited aerial threat that is Aguero. Even if it is defensive solidarity the Chilean manager wants, Sterling tackles and intercepts per 90 (2.17) more than Navas (1.96) in the competition this season. Perhaps there are other reasons for playing the diminutive Spaniard, it’s just hard to see any.

Five shots were City’s limited spoils at the Bernabeu. Madrid, barely in second gear throughout the game, had 15, two more than in their previous meeting.

Once again, City’s pressing was proved ineffective by the competence of Madrid’s midfield in possession. Of 14 tackle attempts in the home team’s half, only three were successful. Los Blancos only attempted half that many in City’s, content to sit back and soak up any residual pressure; as it turns out, there was none.

In the end, the only real difference between this match and the one that preceded it was that one of Madrid’s numerous chances ended up going in, albeit not without a bit of luck. Gareth Bale’s fortuitous cross may barely count as a shot, but that it deflected in saved viewers another thirty minutes of this underwhelming encounter.

@11tegen11’s expected goals numbers echo the repetition of narrative here – this time round, City had a 3% chance of winning based on the quality of their opportunities relative to Real Madrid; a draw might have happened 16% of the time, and Madrid cruised through in a cool 81% of the simulations.

Technically, City were in this tie right until the very end, but in reality it would have taken an uncharacteristic moment of genius for them to have had any chance of turning the tide. If you’re choosing a game-plan, this was not the one to pick.

“Did we do enough to win this game? I don’t know.” said Joe Hart after the match. But he does, and he will be frustrated that few, if any, can imagine anyone other than Real Madrid having made the final.