Premier League 2020-21 preview No 4: Burnley

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 13th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Wilson’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 10th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 1,000-1

Everyone at Turf Moor is agreed on one thing: the club needs to continue operating at the highest possible level. Even though this will be Burnley’s fifth consecutive Premier League season no one can take anything for granted with such a small squad and a limited budget, least of all Sean Dyche, who has repeatedly claimed his side are not yet an established top-flight club.

Related: Premier League 2020-21 preview No 1: Arsenal

That could just be a part of his managerial style, of course, a way to keep the players on their toes and prevent supporters’ expectations soaring too high, but Burnley as a town is an unpretentious place. People in east Lancashire are proud of what the club has achieved but do not necessarily expect it to be crashing the top six any time soon. That almost happened two years ago, when Burnley finished seventh and entered the Europa League, though the extra fixtures meant league form suffered to such an extent that no one would wish an immediate return.

Most people around the club would be happy to accept another comfortable mid-table finish – which for an operation of Burnley’s stature really does count as an achievement when one considers the financial inequality within the Premier League and the number of big-city clubs stuck in the lower divisions – though as Dyche knows better than anyone else it is no easy task laying claim to be the 10th best side in the country.

It becomes difficult to hold on to your best players, for a start, and Burnley have seen key performers such as Kieran Trippier, Michael Keane, Danny Ings and Tom Heaton move on in recent years. The budget means replacements generally have to be found around Championship level, and though Dyche has done well with acquisitions such as Charlie Taylor, Chris Wood, Ashley Westwood and Jack Cork, it is a tricky balancing act, and there were the first signs of tension within the club towards the end of last season when the manager thought too many contracts were being allowed to run down without replacements being sourced.

That in turn puts the spotlight on Dyche’s position. For several seasons, at least until Frank Lampard went back to Chelsea and Chris Wilder revived Sheffield United, Dyche has looked the most capable and consistent of English managers in the Premier League. Though he would not admit it in public he is probably ready for a move upwards after eight years at the same club, but where exactly are the bigger clubs who could offer a proven manager a career step-up?

Dyche’s lack of European experience would count against him at any of the usual top six, none of whom are interested in taking a risk on candidates who have only Watford and Burnley on their CV in any case. Dyche has been linked with vacancies at Everton and Leicester, though nothing came of it and those positions have been filled for the foreseeable future. All that leaves are sideways or downward moves, perhaps to a big-city club with greater eventual potential. There may be one or two of those about, or there may be after a couple of months of the season, but for now it is same old, same old at Burnley.

Dyche will do his best with a small group of loyal and committed players and probably fail to get the credit he deserves. How long this unusual east Lancashire eco-system can last is anyone’s guess. It has been a rewarding journey for all concerned, though it is easy to feel that a change of manager, or even a debilitating injury to a key player such as Ben Mee or James Tarkowski, could unbalance the whole enterprise. Similar conclusions have been drawn before, however, and Burnley just carry on cheerfully overcoming the odds.

Whatever the outcome, Dyche deserves some sort of recognition for a distinctive contribution to the club’s colourful history. Perhaps a statue, out on the moors behind Turf Moor. You can see the Singing Ringing Tree from the Burnley main stand, an art installation set up to play eery tunes when the wind blows, which is always. Dyche could join it, a man alone, possibly moaning softly to himself about the number of penalties referees keep awarding for diving.

Burnley began life as a rugby club, and were invited to play at Turf Moor by the local cricket club, which still operates behind one end of the ground even if Jimmy Anderson has gone on to greater things. Burnley have won every trophy possible, with the exception of the League Cup, though they have also been all through the four divisions and back. For a small-town club, and Burnley is a small town, they have frequently, if not always consistently, punched above their weight. Have spent the past decade putting Lancashire rivals Blackburn and Preston firmly in the shade.

The manager

On the touchline Dyche is alert, briskly aggressive but largely polite, give or take a few expletives. Always smartly dressed and usually upright, Dyche is not one for taking a back seat; he prefers to be as close as possible to the action and as involved as the rules allow.

On Zoom Gruff, though rarely grumpy. Dyche long ago mastered the art of speaking a lot without actually saying much, frequently answering his own questions rather than those from the floor. Reporters are left with rafts of quotes but no story.

The key

Normally the answer would be Ashley Barnes, a totemic figure for Burnley in the last few seasons, but the striker is now 30. Westwood and Cork run a tidy midfield, though in terms of goal threat the Clarets will be looking to Dwight McNeil for attacking inspiration, either from the wing or more centrally.

The owners

Burnley are one of the few British-owned clubs left in the Premier League. Majority shareholder Mike Garlick is wealthy (he founded a successful management consultancy) but not mega-rich to the tune of most Premier League investors. The club is sensibly run and frequently presented as a model of how to avoid boom and bust syndrome while quietly turning over a healthy profit, though there were the first signs last season of the shoestring budget being pulled too tight for the manager’s liking.

Young blood

McNeil stands out as the only young player in the side. He is still only 20 even though he now has two solid seasons behind him. At 23 Bailey Peacock-Farrell is still young for a goalkeeper.

New blood

Just Will Norris as a replacement for Joe Hart, and with Peacock-Farrell a likely No 2 to Pope, the former Cambridge and Ipswich goalkeeper may find himself playing just as few games. Dyche is interested in Bournemouth’s Adam Smith and could do with a few more bodies.

Kit story

Though founder members of the Football League, Burnley adopted their claret and blue strip 20 years later, unashamedly copying the style of the 1909-10 champions Aston Villa. Before that they played in black and yellow stripes and were sometimes referred to as the Hornets.

Notes from an empty stadium

Burnley cover some of their empty seats with banners and adverts, prominent among them last season a sign emphasising that black lives matter. The club was embarrassed by the unwanted publicity that followed an aerial stunt before their game at Manchester City.

Euros vision

McNeil might have been on the fringes of Gareth Southgate’s England squad had the Euros gone ahead as planned. Another impressive season should see him firmly in contention next summer.