Under Pressure: Do Benitez and Mike Ashley stick or twist?

Three points above the relegation zone, and due to face Manchester City in their next game. That would be miserable enough for most teams, but Newcastle United have found themselves, like Alan Partridge’s former teacher, in an invidious position.

There is more to their situation than just poor form, and the complicating circumstances make a recovery harder to envision. In fact, it is more likely that their misery will be compounded by a drift down the table, and then to The Championship. For Rafael Benitez and Mike Ashley, they both have the same decision to make – to cut their losses, or recommit to the club.

Benitez was attracted to Newcastle because he saw the same potential that Ashley did. The fans were loyal, they came in their tens of thousands regardless of the state of the club.

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They had the ability to establish themselves in the Premier League. For Ashley, that meant the promise of money. For Benitez, it was a chance to rebuild a reputation that has suffered from drifting from one club to another, and battered after Real Madrid’s players simply rejected him.

Nevertheless, there are other clubs who would want him. He did an unremarkable job at Napoli, but an ultimately impressive one at Chelsea, when he withstood abuse from fans to win the Europa League and earn Champions League football. Taking Newcastle from the Championship and – for now – being above the bottom three is some achievement.

The transfer window in the summer was a farce, with Benitez openly complaining that he had not been given what he expected, and few players of real quality coming. The squad is patchy: Dwight Gayle might have Crystanbul to his name, but he should not be in contention for a club that is aiming higher than 17th.

Ashley had been aiming to get rid of Newcastle in time for the winter transfer window for obvious reasons. One, it would be somebody else’s problem to pay for reinforcement. Two, survival would probably be dependent on how much he was willing to spend.

Far better to scrape as much money from a pre-January sale. Unfortunately for him (and the fans, probably), he has been unable to do so. Now it is is his responsibility to deal with Benitez’s request.

His choice is not straightforward. It seems obvious to fans that he should bankroll Benitez to give him the best chance of survival. It gives the fans and the manager what they both want, more attractive and more competent football. In turn, Ashley has preserved the fundamental selling point of Newcastle, that they are in a devoted football city, with the chance of earning hundreds of millions of pounds if they remain in the Premier League. It seems both simple and obvious.

For Ashley, that’s not how he works. As you can see from Sports Direct, the aims has been to minimise expenditure, and reward those close to him. It has not – as you can see from the poor performance of the business in the last few years – been a complete success.

Miserly expenditure does keep costs low, but investing in a business, done well, can bring greater profit in the longer term. Similarly, edging survival in the Premier League and relying on Benitez’s abilities to keep them up would appeal to his tighter approach to business. Cash kept on the balance can be added onto any sale price he negotiates.

Ashley must decide what is the greatest motivation for him. Is it is his inherent aversion to spending that he considers discretionary, or is it getting rid of a football club at a reasonable price? He plainly holds running a club in no kind of affectionate light. He has tried to sell before and he will probably try to sell again. If he is holding out for £300m, then he will need to be sure of survival, or he will probably fail to attract half that if the club are relegated.

He fits the description of a motivated seller in every way, and we all know it, and yet he refuses to budge on the asking price. It might work if Newcastle were a wonderfully attractive asset with no competition, but there are plenty of other clubs for British or foreign monies to buy if they want to.

It isn’t an unusual way to be, but Ashley is a short-termist in football and in business. When you look at clubs that are prepared to take the longer view, like Watford, Chelsea or others, there are obvious benefits. A coherent strategy isn’t always right, but it is often an advantage.

Benitez has shown in his career that he knows how to build football teams, and how to perform with limited resources in the short term. He is at the right club for much of his talents, but the wrong one for his ambitions. Both Ashley and Benitez have to decide to leave, or commit for at least another six months – defeat to City will only make that decision more difficult.