Puck Daddy’s 2016-17 NHL Preview: Colorado Avalanche

Last Season: 39-39-4 (82 points), 6th in the Central, 9th in the West

The Avalanche stayed in the playoff race until the end of March when the bottom fell out after a 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. From that moment on, the Avalanche won one game. In that stretch they were drubbed 4-0 by the Minnesota Wild in a contest that involved major playoff implications.

Matt Duchene’s 30 goals led the team but really they didn’t get much offense from others. They finished 20th in the league in goals scored per-game and 24th in goals allowed. Puck possession was also an issue for the Avalanche as Colorado had the worst score, zone and venue adjusted 5-on-5 CF%.

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Coach Patrick Roy seemed to struggle with the concept as he tried to explain his thoughts on advanced stats mid-year.

The biggest problem down the stretch was Roy’s issues with his players. He called out the group’s core shortly after a big Matt Duchene celebration for his 30th goal. Still, it appeared that Roy would return – until he abruptly left in mid-August.

The team then opted to hire Lack Erie Monsters coach Jared Bednar, who won the Calder Cup last season.

2015-16 Season, In One Picture

Did They Get Better, Worse, Or Are They About The Same?

They probably got better. The Avalanche have most of the same core players that won the Central Division in 2013-14, Roy’s first season. They re-signed key players, Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie, to long-term contracts and added some depth in forwards Joe Colborne and Rocco Grimaldi along with vet Fedor Tyutin on defense. The biggest change is behind the bench with Bednar, who takes this job as a more experienced pro coach than Roy three years ago.

Five Most Fascinating Players

1. Nathan MacKinnon. The former top draft pick is loaded with potential and has one of the most explosive skating strides in the game. But since his Calder Trophy winning rookie season when he scored 24 goals and 63 points as an 18-year-old, his development has stalled. He had 52 points in 72 games last season as he bounced back from a 38 point season in 2014-15. So far during the World Cup of Hockey, MacKinnon has showed the speed and skill that made him seem like a future superstar. Can he continue this roll in the regular season?

2. Matt Duchene. Duchene is Colorado’s best offensive option, and the team will need a big season out of him if it wants to do well this year. Duchene had 70 points in 2013-14, but hasn’t touched 60 points since then. Still he has speed to burn – which he showed last season with his 30 tallies. Duchene and Roy seemed to struggle with their relationship and he should benefit greatly from the coaching change.

3. Tyson Barrie. For the last couple of years, it has felt like the offensive-minded Barrie has been on the trading block with constant rumors swirling about his status. But after inking a four-year contract extension this summer he should have the peace of mind to really flourish without any off-ice worries. Last season Barrie had 49 points in 78 games while playing a career-high 23:12 per-game.

4. Jarome Iginla. The 39-year-old Iginla is entering the final season of a three-year, $16 million contract. For several years, Iginla was able to keep up his consistency even as he aged. But his decline really started to hit hard last season with 47 points in 82 games. It was the second-worst full-season point total of Iginla’s career. If the Avalanche struggle, will Iginla ask the team to make a deal to give him one last shot at a Stanley Cup? Will this be Iginla’s last season in the NHL? It’s unclear what to fully expect from the future Hall of Famer.

5. Semyon Varlamov. A lot of Colorado’s previous strategy involved Varlamov and his abilities as a shot blocker helped the team to its surprised 2013-14 division championship. Since then he hasn’t played up to the same level. Last year he struggled mightily with a 2.81 goal-against average and .914 save percentage. Will an approach that focuses more on team defense and less on Varlamov help him? Will not having Roy around mean a better year for the netminder?

Mascot Hijinks Video Break

Can We Trust Them At Even Strength?

This is the great unknown for Colorado. They had a lot of issues playing 5-on-5 hockey since Roy took over as coach. Last season, their score, venue and zone adjusted 5-on-5 CF% was an abysmal 44.53. Defenseman Nick Holden was on ice for a team-high 59 goals for 5-on-5. But the opposition scored 65 goals against with him on ice. Carl Soderberg had a plus-3.18 5-on-5 zone, score and venue adjusted 5-on-5 CF% and MacKinnon was a plus-2.34. But no regular player was over 50 percent on this on the team. Were Colorado’s mediocre 5-on-5 possession numbers because of Roy’s strategy or are the Avalanche simply full of players that don’t hold onto the puck? If Colorado sees a puck possession boost in 2016-17, we’ll know the answer.

Can We Trust Them On Special Teams?

The Avalanche ranked 19th on the power play last season and put themselves on the man-advantage the eighth-most times in the NHL. They should have done better with some of the offensive weapons they have up front like MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Duchene along with point-men like Barrie and Erik Johnson. Maybe Bednar can coax more out of this group. Last season, Varlamov had a .8636 shorthanded save percentage, which ranked 16th amongst netminders who played at least 200 shorthanded minutes. Colorado ranked 23rd in the NHL on the PK at 80.2 percent.

Can We Trust Their Goaltending?

Maybe. It all depends on which Varlamov shows up. If he’s the Varlamov of 2013-14, the Avs will be fine. If he’s the Varlamov of the last two seasons, then the team should expect decent, but inconsistent, goaltending. Reto Berra is longer with the Avalanche, so it will be up to backup Calvin Pickard to spell Varlamov if he has any issues. Pickard put up solid numbers last season with a 2.56 goal-against average and .922 save percentage in 20 games played.

Player Mostly Likely To Be In Vegas Next Season

Colborne has a two-year contract at $2.5 million. He’s just 26 years old and could be in Vegas if the team wants a decent, cheap player under the age of 30.

Coach Hot Seat Rating (1-10, 10 being scorching hot)

2. After the Roy fiasco last offseason, it’s hard to believe that the Avalanche could part ways with Bednar this season unless something disastrous happens. The hotter seat may involve general manager Joe Sakic who convinced Roy to coach the team and then picked Bednar to replace Roy. That being said a Calder Cup carries a lot of cred in hockey coaching fraternities and if Sakic was patient with Roy, he’ll probably give Bednar a long leash.

Prediction

The Avalanche will see some subtle improvements in their puck possession game, but still won’t make the playoffs. Since the 2013-14 season Colorado has lost centers Paul Stastny and Ryan O’Reilly. Those are a lot of big, core hits for one organization to take. MacKinnon will take the next step in his development, which will give the Avalanche the legit, No. 1 center they need but ultimately this group doesn’t have the talent to make a run at a playoff spot.

2016-17 Season Preview
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Josh Cooper is an editor for Puck Daddy on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @joshuacooper