In the year 2050 alone, the transition's impact amounts to 181 million future years of healthy human life, a new report found.
The world's energy choices between now and 2050 will determine so much about the future. Climate change, natural ecosystems, and economic development are all on the line. Add to that list 181 million years of healthy human life — annually.
That's how many years can be saved from death or disability by quickly ramping up renewable energy and dialing back fossil fuels, according to a new assessment published on Friday, from the nonprofit World Wildlife Fund and the Boston Consulting Group.
Solar panels are installed at a floating photovoltaic plant on a lake in Haltern, Germany.Martin Meissner/AP Photo
The report compares two futures: one in which the world rapidly transitions to renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and bioenergy; and one in which the world continues business as usual by relying largely on fossil fuels.
"The rapid-transition future is not only essential to mitigating climate change, but it's also quantifiably better for ecosystems, wildlife, and our well-being," Stephanie Roe, WWF's lead scientist on climate and energy, and a lead author of the report, told Insider.
Millions of people's lives are on the line
People walk through vehicles stuck in traffic in the afternoon in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters
Disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs, capture years of life affected by disability and years lost to premature death. The metric allows scientists to do a global, lifetime assessment of health risks due to air pollution or climate change, for example.
That's what the WWF and BCG used to calculate the toll of the two futures on the table.
If the world rapidly transitions to renewables, they found, the energy system will still hurt human health enough in 2050 to lead to early death and disability that affects 30 million years of human life.
As of August, Texas broke ten power use records this summer.Nick Oxford/Reuters
That is to say that the impacts of the energy system in one year, 2050, would cause about 30 million people to live one year less or have one extra year of disability, or would cause 15 million people to live two years less, for example.
Those health impacts would mostly come from air pollution and climate change, but also from other toxicity and radiation associated with nuclear energy.
In the fossil-fuel future, though, the researchers estimate that in 2050 alone the energy system would cause 211 million years of human life to either be lost or lived with a disability. That's 181 million more years than the green-energy scenario for 2050.
Fossil fuels are terrible for human health
Fossil fuels like gasoline, coal, or diesel are so deadly because burning them releases heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That's raising average global temperatures and driving increasingly extreme weather.
Fossil fuels also release toxic gases and particulate matter — minuscule, toxic flakes that can increase the risk of asthma, lung cancer, heart disease, and stroke.
The sun sets over London's skyline as warm temperatures, wind and emissions combine to trigger a "high" alert for air pollution.Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Car exhaust and gas stoves are day-to-day sources of exposure to these pollutants, according to the American Lung Association. Mines, coal-burning plants, and other fossil-fuel facilities also emit poisonous substances.
In 2018 alone, more than 8.7 million premature deaths could be attributed to air pollution from burning fossil fuels, according to Harvard scientists. That's one in five deaths worldwide.
"We knew this, but it's nice to have some numbers on it," Jonathan Buonocore, an assistant professor of environmental health at Boston University School of Public Health, told Insider.
The report also assessed 2022, and concluded that the current energy system already enacts a heavy toll, to the tune of 159 million healthy life-years with each year that passes.
How researchers measure years affected by disability or early death
The researchers made their projections based on groundwork laid in a 2017 study, which had calculated DALYs per kilowatt-hour of energy from solar, wind, coal, and more.
The WWF and BCG researchers applied those DALYs-per-kilowatt-hour calculations to the energy profiles of both scenarios for 2050.
This may even be an underestimate of the human life and health that's at stake, Buonocore said, since the calculations in the 2017 study didn't include the impacts of the smallest particulate matter in the air.
What global green energy means
Workers install the world's first 16-megawatt offshore wind turbine in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fujian Province of China.Lyu Ming/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images
As of 2019 , 80.9% of the world was powered by fossil fuels, 5% of the world was powered by nuclear energy, and 14.1% of the world was powered by renewables, according to the International Energy Agency. To meet the projections laid out in the WWF report, we'd need to reduce global dependency on fossil fuels to 15% and scale up our renewable energy use to 85%.
"I think it's important to think about energy as a determinant of health," Buonocore said. "People need energy to do everything."
So a shift into a green future would require a massive investment, upending many corners of our current operating system, from individual kitchens to national power grids. In 2022, Stanford scientists estimated that the transition could require $61.5 trillion in funds.
But, the researchers who ran the report say that the investment would be worth the returns. "A fossil-fuel future is just so many orders of magnitude worse than this transition," Roe said.
A newlywed on her honeymoon in The Bahamas was killed by a large shark while paddleboarding in the water near the five-star resort where she was staying.
The discovery solves a long-standing mystery about whether these creatures are ovoviviparous, meaning they can lay eggs inside their bodies and give birth to live young.
In a quiet field in eastern England a vast heat pump generates enough warmth to supply houses throughout a historic village, a pilot project testing ways to spur renewable energy use in a country that is falling behind its net zero targets. Resembling a large agricultural site, with gleaming silver water vats, the heat pump produces water hot enough to feed existing domestic systems, removing the need for costly home retrofits. A 60-year funding scheme removed upfront costs.
These drone pictures show the aftermath of a flooded residential park that saw dozens of elderly residents forced to flee their homes. Emergency services were called to Primrose Hill Residential Park in Charlton Adam, Somerset, last night (Mon) to reports of severe flooding. There were concerns for the welfare of around 100 residents with many of the caravans on site flooded and others had lost electricity and water supplies. All the residents were checked over and many had to be extricated to dry land alongside their pets for further care and assistance. Aerial images taken this morning (Tues) after the rescues show water still engulfing around 30 caravans on the site. Among the large number of search teams to be deployed to help in the rescue was Wiltshire Search and Rescue. It's understood that water rescue specialists were initially alerted to the incident at around 9pm, with the peak of the flooding in the early hours of the morning overnight before levels began to drop. A spokesperson said: "On arrival, we were briefed about an emerging issue at a caravan park, with flood water up to 5’ deep in places, and the welfare of around 100 residents was unknown. Some of the caravans were flooded, and others had lost electricity or water supplies. "The five teams deployed and worked alongside the fire service to locate, assess, and where required extricate the mainly elderly residents and pets in boats. "Once back on dry land they were checked over by paramedics at a casualty collection point and then taken to a place of safety. "We train to the same flood rescue standards as all the emergency services in the UK. The importance of this was massively apparent last night; despite having never previously met the vast majority of those involved before, we were able to work together seamlessly, confidently and efficiently." Involved in the rescue was two flood teams who were rapidly formed consisting of Lowland Rescue volunteers from Wiltshire, Dorset and Hampshire, who were initially sent to a holding area at Yeovil police station. There they joined up with Mountain Rescue colleagues from Exmoor Search & Rescue who had also been tasked. Witnesses said the flood peaked overnight at waist height for residents and with the only way out blocked there was no option other than to use the boats. Footage this morning showed much of the site still underwater with an estimated 30 caravans impacted. A woman, who turned up to try to help her elderly relatives living on the site, said that police stopped her from accessing the area. "When I turned up last night my mum and dad were so distressed, really scared. "But the police had closed the road and it was too dangerous to get closer. "They said they had the situation under control. "We came back at 8am and spoke to some workers, they said everyone was accounted for and helped us get access to check in with them and they were okay thank God." One observer said: "You can see how bad it was just from the pictures this morning. It must have been a worrying time for everyone involved."
Severe rain has caused a landslip on a rail line and major road closures which will see motorists and trains delayed until next week. Severe disruption has been felt across the country this week following heavy rain. And there was major chaos with roads closed and no trains in and out of Devon and Cornwall due to flooded train tracks. Though many roads are now open and most services have returned to normal, a landslip above the Crewkerne Tunnel in Somerset has meant Network Rail engineers must undergo repairs. Motorists have also been informed a major Somerset road will be affected for days by problems caused by flash flooding. National Highways set up a road closure on the A303 between the A3088 (Cartgate) and A359 (Sparkford). Network Rail and SWR are therefore urging customers not to attempt to travel between Salisbury and Exeter until Monday 11 December. Network Rail completed inspections late last night and early this morning to assess the situation before engineers began work using ropes to abseil down the cutting and start removing vegetation before beginning excavating debris. Over the coming days, Network Rail’s team of engineers will work around the clock to excavate around 100 tonnes of clay, soil and vegetation from around the tunnel entrance to help stabilise the cutting. Engineers are initially excavating by hand, lowering the debris to the track via chutes before its transported away on an engineering train. A long reach excavator will also be brought in and situated on top of the tunnel using an extra-long arm and bucket to help with the removal of the debris. As a result, SWR is unable to run services between Salisbury and Exeter St David’s and is urging customers not to attempt to travel on this route, particularly as severe flooding continues to impact the planned rail replacement bus services. Matt Pocock, Network Rail Wessex route director, said: “I would like to say how sorry we are for the disruption passengers are experiencing following a landslip at Crewkerne tunnel. “We’ve experienced over 90mm of sustained heavy rain over the past 48 hours and this has resulted in movement in the earth on the cutting above the tunnel entrance which, if action isn’t taken, could spill over onto the tracks and risk the safety of passenger services." Flooding has also limited travellers by car, as motorists have been informed a major Somerset road will be affected for days by problems caused by flooding. National Highways set up a road closure on the A303 between the A3088 (Cartgate) and A359 (Sparkford). Crews from Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service joined highways officers at the scene to pump the water away. The Eastbound lane reopened on the morning of Wednesday 6 December. However, there are set to be further issues on Thursday 7 December, with more heavy rain forecast leading to a weather warning covering most of Somerset. Steve Tyler, South Western Railway’s Performance and Planning Director, added: “We’re really sorry that the emergency closure of Crewkerne tunnel means we won’t be able to serve stations between Salisbury and Exeter St David’s until Monday. “We know how disruptive this is for customers in run up to Christmas, so our teams are examining potential ways to run an extremely limited service between Salisbury and Yeovil Junction via Westbury in the coming days. "Please check our website for the latest updates.”
Heavy rain is set to batter large parts of the country on Thursday, with the Met Office issuing 10 new weather warnings. Parts of southern, central and northern England, as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to experience downpours after days of ice and snow caused disruption, school closures and power cuts. A major incident was declared in Cumbria last week as hundreds were left without electricity after heavy snow.
A US woman has died after being attacked by a shark while paddleboarding in The Bahamas. Police said the victim in her 40s was with a male relative when the incident happened near a luxury resort in New Providence. Fatal shark attacks are extremely uncommon but there have been two others in recent years in The Bahamas.
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