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What results do Scotland need to qualify in Nations League? Every Poland, Portugal and Croatia permutation explained
What a night that was for Scotland at Hampden Park. The late 1-0 win over Croatia has given the nation a huge lift.
John McGinn's heroics off the bench saw the Dark Blues secure their first win of Group A1 in the UEFA Nations League - and just their second victory in 14 months. But what does this mean now for Steve Clarke's men with Poland waiting for them in Warsaw on Monday?
Robert Lewandowski was absent as his side were hammered 5-1 in Portugal with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring another trademark bicycle kick and Bruno Fernandes firing in a rocket off the bar. So the Poles will be desperate to put things right in front of their own fans. But can Scotland go there and get a result? More importantly what to Scotland NEED to finish in the top two places and qualify for the quarter-finals.
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Permutations for Poland vs Scotland and Portugal vs Croatia
Portugal are already through to the quarter-finals as group winners having won four and drawn one. Scotland will finish second in the group and be in Pot 1 for the World Cup Qualifying draw if we win in Poland AND Portugal win in Croatia...as long as one of the following three outcomes come to pass.
Scotland's win is by two goals
Croatia's loss is by two goals
Scotland score three more goals than Croatia.
Scotland will enter the relegation play-offs if they win but do not overtake Croatia. Scotland will be relegated if they do not win.
Poland are unable to reach the quarter-finals, but they will still have the incentive against Scotland. If the Poles avoid defeat at the Kazimierz Górski National Stadium they will enter the League A/B relegation play-off. Otherwise Poland will be automatically relegated.
How does the Nations League impact World Cup qualifying for Scotland?
Complicated, isn't it?
All eight Nations League quarter-finalists will be placed in Pot 1 of the World Cup qualifying draw, which will be completed by the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking. If you finish in the top two of UNL League A, like Scotland hope to, you're seeded and could get a more favourable route to the next World Cup. Scotland are currently in Pot 3 but could jump to Pot 2 of the World Cup qualifying draw if they beat Poland on Monday but do not finish in the top two spots.
The European World Cup Qualifiers start next March with teams to be drawn into 12 groups of four and five teams in Zurich on December 13.
