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Revealed: Huge cost of sending workers back home
A return to millions more people working from home would blow a multi-billion pound hole in the economy, according to a leaked government report.
It revealed the scale of the WFH hit to businesses, which bosses are imploring the Government to avoid.
Ministers desperately want to “keep open” London and other cities to stop the recovery being “choked” off so they are pleading with millions to get fully vaccinated against Covid, including booster jabs, to strengthen the nation’s defences.
London minister Paul Scully told the Standard: “As we head towards Christmas, I’d like nothing more than to see London’s pubs, theatres and shops thriving with activity.
“Get the vaccine, book your booster jab and let’s keep this great city of ours open for business.”
He stressed: “This isn’t just about protecting yourself, it’s about protecting London and our freedoms too.” His intervention came as a Treasury document, leaked to Politico London Playbook, put the cost of “Plan B” at between £11 billion to £18 billion if it were in force for five months until the end of March.
The analysis is understood not to have taken into account potential benefits of vaccine passports in boosting consumer confidence, which could help some businesses stay open.
The £18 billion is believed to be a worst-case scenario and the Government would only order it if it was likely that the NHS was in danger of getting overwhelmed by cases and other pressures such as flu hospital admissions.
A government spokeswoman said: “We knew the coming months would be challenging, which is why we set out our autumn and winter plan last month.
“Plan B ensures we are ready, should we need to act, to avoid an unsustainable rise in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
“The presumptions put forward do not reflect government policy. The data does not currently show that Plan B is necessary — and there is no planned five-month timeline.”
The Standard has repeatedly called for face masks to be made mandatory again on public transport and highlighted arguments for vaccine passports to avoid more economically-damaging restrictions. WFH could have a moderately positive impact on reducing Covid transmission but with a high economic cost, the analysis found, according to Politico, while vaccine passports could reduce community transmission by between one to five per cent.
John Dickie, chief executive of business group London First, said the Government “should implement now the measures which are merely inconvenient, such as mask-wearing on public transport and in crowded spaces, to give us the greatest chance of avoiding seriously damaging restrictions later.
“Moving back to requiring people to work at home would be bad for productivity, the wider London economy and many people’s mental health”.
Central London was turned into a “ghost town” by lockdowns, leaving many businesses struggling to survive.
“That’s why we’re taking every measure to make sure that we don’t choke down on the recovery, that we allow businesses to trade fully but we’ll do that using the best data,” Mr Scully added on LBC Radio.
He spoke out as:
Latest figures showed the number of daily Covid cases at 36,567, including 3,118 in London.
Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, said the UK is not yet “on top” of the pandemic, vaccines are “winning the battle” but people should “not throw it all away” and they should get a booster jab when invited to do so.
A total of 713 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending October 15 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, according to the Office for National Statistics, up seven per cent on the previous week.
Dr David Nabarro, World Health Organisation special coronavirus envoy for Europe, urged MPs to wear masks in the Commons during the Budget speech tomorrow as it would be a crowded space, stressing “everybody should be doing it, including our leaders”.
Bosses in the capital have lined up to warn against a return to working from home, with the latest plea coming from Gerald Kaye, chief executive of London-focused offices landlord Helical.
He said: “Having created some real momentum... it would be a completely retrograde and counter-productive step to stop this progress in its tracks.”
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