Sandown Gold Cup betting tips: Trends pinpoint Tea Clipper and Certainly Red as best each-way value

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14.15 Sandown bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Our Punchestown Gold Cup selection Bravemansgame looked very much the winner until a bad mistake at the last lost him his momentum, but that's jumps racing!

For the final day of the jumps season , we shift our attention to a top-class meeting at Sandown Park, and I am using trends analysis to narrow down the field of eighteen runners. Contested over an extended three and a half miles, the runners must negotiate 24 fences over the marathon trip, which was won last year by American raider Hewick

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I have used the following trends to help reduce the field:

  • 18/19 - Had raced in the last 63 days

  • 17/19 - Carried under 11st-6lb in weight

  • 15/19 - Had won over three miles or further

  • 15/19 - Aged under 10

  • 14/19 - Carried 11st-0lb or less

  • 13/19 - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting

  • 12/19 - Officially rated 140 or higher

  • 11/19 - Came from the top seven in the betting market

  • 11/19 - Had raced in the last 25 days

  • 11/19 - Finished outside the first three last time out

  • 5/19 - Won with 10st in weight

  • 3/19 - Trained by Paul Nicholls

The trends above reduced the field to a shortlist of five horses - Tea Clipper, Annual Invictus, Certainly Red, Revels Hill and Enrilo, the last two of whom I immediately ruled out as they are officially rated below 140.

Suggested bet: Tea Clipper each-way in the 14:15 at Sandown

Annual Invictus meets most of the trends, but has pulled up twice this season, which never fills me with confidence, and he is ridden by a seven-pound claimer. This is absolutely no disrespect to Freddie Gordon, who shapes up like a promising rider, but in a race like this with eighteen runners more experience is usually required.

This leaves us with two runners: Tea Clipper and Certainly Red.

Tea Clipper was last seen finishing sixth behind Corach Rambler, the Grand National winner, in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. That was impressive form if you consider the second-placed horse Fastorslow, won the Punchestown Gold Cup on Wednesday, beating the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Galopin Des Champs, and runner-up Bravemansgame in the process. Certainly Red won four on the bounce before finishing down the field at Ascot in a hurdle over a shorter trip, which I would think was used to sharpen the horse up for this race. Suggested bet: Certainly Red each-way in the 14:15 at Sandown

Several trainers for the National run their charges over hurdles before the big race to protect their handicap mark and that looks to be the case here. Certainly Red had a session with Henrietta Knight to sharpen his jumping up and that paid dividends on his winning run. He will need to jump well to win this, but he should be thereabouts at the finish. I recommend backing both Tea Clipper and Certainly Red at the odds and hopefully we will get a similar result to the Midlands National where our selections finished first and third. Don't forget to look for bookmakers offering extra places - many are offering up to sixth place, which helps enhance that each-way value. Suggested bets: Tea Clipper and Certainly Red each-way in the 14:15 at Sandown

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