Can Scotland finish second in Nations League A Group 1 if they beat Poland? The 2 results that must happen

It's must-win for Scotland as they face Poland in Warsaw tonight.

Steve Clarke's side are bottom of Nations League A Group 1, but there's an outside chance the Scots could end the night in SECOND spot. To do that, they'll need to leapfrog the Poles and Friday night's foes Croatia to reach the quarter-finals. Tonight's result will decide our fate and determine both Scotland's place in the next Nations League and the World Cup qualifying draw seeds.

So firstly, what needs to happen for Andy Robertson and Co. to avoid relegation? Well, that's the simplest question to answer. They need to win to jump above Poland and avoid finishing fourth in section A1. If they fail to earn three points, they head back down to league B. There's even more at stake, though.

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Scotland started the month among the third seeds for the World Cup qualifying draw and victory would likely take them into pot two, or even pot one. They would need to finish second to do that, and would also qualify for the Nations League quarter-finals in the process.

This is where it's time to get your calculators out. In order to finish second, we would have to rely on results going in our favour, as well as a three-goal swing. Croatia would have to lose at home to Portugal, who have already sealed top spot with a 5-1 win over Poland.

However, this is where it starts to get complicated. Scotland and Croatia's head-to-head record is identical, and one-goal wins in each game would leave them level on goal difference. Scotland would require a two-goal win in either game, or to overtake them on goals scored, or away goals scored. If all those are level, Scotland would go second courtesy of their away win in Warsaw. Theoretically of course.

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