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Scotland World Cup qualifying draw curveball as FIFA announce significant rule change
Scotland have been thrown a curveball which could result in a three-way home nations battle for World Cup qualification.
Steve Clarke's men thought they had been given somewhat of a reprieve from fixture overload as it was initially confirmed they would be in a four-team qualifying group for the 2026 World Cup with their Nations League play off in March 2025 clashing with the first qualifying matchdays. The draw for European teams will be held at FIFA's headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland on December 13, 2024. The draw will begin at 11am UK time (accompanied by the usual FIFA pageantry). Sixteen UEFA nations will descend on the 48-team FIFA World Cup finals in Canada, Mexico and the United States. Sixteen cities will host games with the final earmarked for the Big Apple, New York City, on July 19.
However, FIFA boffins have moved the goalposts when it comes to the European qualifying draw protocols and it could have a big impact on who Scotland could face. Join Record Sport as we attempt to make sense of it all.
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So, what has changed?
The Scots are the top seed in Pot 3 for the European World Cup qualifying draw and are involved in the Nations League play offs. Previously, all Nations League quarter final and play off teams in Pots 2, 3 and 4 were to be "in priority allocated to groups of four." This has been removed. These teams now could potentially be in a group of five. The reason for this change was to open up the draw as only a select number of groups were allowed to have a NL quarter finalist or play off side in it. For example in the original format if a Pot 1 team (for example England) were in a group of four they could only play a Pot 2 team with a Nations League play-off. But if in a group of five they could NOT play a Pot 2 team with a play off. This is no longer the case.
Regardless of the rule changes, four Pot 1 teams will be pencilled in for BOTH Nations League games and World Cup qualifiers in March. A shuffling of fixture days looks inevitable with UEFA and FIFA needing to put their heads together. More information to follow as we get it.
What does this mean for Scotland?
Previously, Scotland had to be in a group of four. Following the protocol change the chances of them being in a group of five are still very low. This is because after Pot 1 and 2 there might not be any five-team groups left which can contain a Nations League play off team. Most importantly, Scotland can only be in a group of five IF one of either England or Switzerland are.
If both England and Switzerland get a group of four, Scotland MUST be in a group of four. So, the chances that there will be a five-team group available to Scotland is low, but it's now possible for them to play England and Switzerland in one.
And they can now draw the six teams in Pot 2 who DO NOT have a Nations League play off: Sweden, Wales, Poland, Romania, Czechia, Norway.
So, the rule change increases the chances of England and Wales being drawn the same group as Scotland. Under the old rules Wales, in Pot 2, were effectively blocked from playing the top two seeds in Pot 3 (which includes Scotland) and three of the top five seeds in Pot 4, who all had to be in a group of four. Now, if Wales are drawn in a group of five with England or Switzerland, the path is opened for Wales to draw Scotland from Pot 3.
What about the other home nations?
Republic of Ireland are in the same boat as Scotland with regards to the rule change. For Northern Ireland, also in Pot 3, they remain almost certain to be in a five-team group because of the limitations placed upon Scotland, ROI and the other Pot 3 Nations League play off teams.
