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Scotland's coefficient drops a place but Celtic and Rangers stock rises as the 'bin men' keep trashing the opposition
Rangers are now 99.9 per cent assured of progression to the Europa League knockout stages. But it wasn’t enough to stop Scotland DROPPING a place in the UEFA coefficient rankings
It’s a tough old fight, this UEFA rankings malarkey. Despite Rangers’ biggest away victory since 2007 and Celtic extending their unbeaten home Champions League run to five matches, Scotland dropped a place in the rankings. The entirely unexpected, but glorious 4-1 hammering of Nice dished out by Philippe Clement's side means that they are now on the longest unbeaten away European away run in Scottish football history (seven matches). But it still wasn’t enough to stop the slide.
That’s because the 0.6 points added, (0.4 for Rangers’ win and 0.2 for Celtic’s draw), was eclipsed by an unbeaten Greek week. The two wins and one draw they banked on Thursday night was enough for them to retake 13th position as we dropped one to 14th. Scotland are unfortunately disadvantaged in this fight because Greece only entered four teams in Europe due to their poor coefficient ranking two seasons ago.
So each result is worth more points for them - 0.5 per win and 0.25 per draw. That means that even just matching their results will never be enough; we need to outdo them.
The Hearts result was the kicker, as the Jambos missed an opportunity to snatch a result against the much weaker of the two Brugge sides. The drop off in Shankland’s goal return has been staggering. Fifty-nine goals in 94 games for Hearts until this season – a different stratosphere compared the miserly one goal in 22 matches he’s netted for club and country this season.
A man bereft of confidence, he can be commended for stepping up to take the pressure penalty with 10 minutes to go. Unfortunately, the 3,000 strong travelling Hearts support had to watch in disbelief as it sailed over the bar – as did Hearts’ chances of bringing anything back from Belgium.
They should still have enough to get through to the next round – they sit 17th and one more point will be enough for progression. If they don’t get it in Copenhagen next time out, then they will surely get it at Tynecastle against Petrocub, the team languishing in 34th with just one point, having only scored twice and conceded 10. The statisticians give Hearts a chance of progression of over 80 per cent.
For Celtic, it has been a remarkable transformation in Europe under Brendan Rodgers, after months of him publicly pleading that he needed heavily backed in the transfer market to make any impact in Europe. He was backed, and an impact he has made.
Despite labouring to a draw against the classy Belgian Champions, Celtic now sit on eight points after five games in the top tier, ahead of Real Madrid, PSG, RB Salzburg, RB Leipzig and 12 others. It’s a competitive edge Celtic have missed in Europe since the halcyon nights of the 2000s.
They first played in the Champions League in 2001, and over the next 11 years played 21 group stage games at Celtic Park. These were THE Champions League nights. The Hoops lost just ONCE, and even that was only because one of their greatest ever players – Henrik Larsson – came back and did the business with Barcelona..
Celtic can't boast that level of player any more, but they’re undoubtedly on the right track. They’ve only lost one European game at Celtic Park in the last two seasons – to a 95th minute Lazio winner. They are unbeaten in five since then, as Daizen Maeda become only the sixth player to score three goals in a season in the Champions League for Celtic.
He's now in esteemed company alongside Moussa Dembélé, Giorgos Samaras, Chris Sutton Henrik Larsson and Kenny Miller. The 10 goals they’ve scored in this campaign is the highest number they’ve EVER netted in the Champions League. You need to go back to 1977 to find when they last scored more in the top tournament with 13 goals in that European Cup season.
The task for Celtic now is get the job done. There’s a 13% chance that the eight points they already have will be enough to finish 24th. Nine points increases that likelihood to 42% and 10 points gives a 94% chance of progression. They travel to Croatia in three weeks to face a Dinamo Zagreb side just one point behind them in the table.
Both teams know that victory would take them to the next round. Failing that, then it’s Young Boys at Celtic Park in January – the Swiss champs are bottom of the league with zero points, only two goals scored and 17 conceded. For Celtic to finally put the last few years of European mediocrity behind them, that absolutely MUST be a win. They do not want to travel down to Birmingham in the last game needing something at Villa Park.
As for their rivals, the battle between “domestic Rangers” and “European Rangers” continues. Philippe Clement is undefeated in his seven European away matches and become the first Scottish team to give themselves a 99.99% chance of progression to the next round.
Indeed there is a 30% likelihood they will do enough in the last three games to finish in the top eight – where they currently reside – the highest of any British team in the Europa League. After scoring more in the last 10 minutes of the first half in France (3) than they have away from home all season domestically (2), they will reach the knockout stages of European football for the fifth time in six campaigns.
It's quite the contrast from a wretched domestic season. One Rangers fan referred to his team as “the bin men”, because they only turn up every second Thursday.
Despite being leapfrogged by Greece, the overall coefficient picture still looks a touch healthier this week as we cut the gap on Norway and Austria ahead of us. Both Norwegian teams lost and so they are now only 1.35 points ahead of us (equivalent of four wins and one draw), while Austria lost three of their four matches and are 1.775 points ahead (five wins and one draw).
These are still big leads to try and cut, but with bonus points on offer for progression to the knockout rounds, we are still in with a fighting chance of finishing in the top 12. The reward for which would be that next season’s Scottish Cup winners are guaranteed Conference League football again.
It’s a season long fight, and our biggest chance of success is having all three teams prolong their own individual season’s for as long as possible. And we look good on that front.
