We simulated the 2024/25 season to see if Arsenal would be crowned Premier League champions

Mikel Arteta acknowledges the fans following the Premier League match between Arsenal and Everton at Emirates Stadium
-Credit: (Image: Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

After missing out on the Premier League title by two points, Arsenal will be looking forward to next season as they try to lift the Premier League trophy.

16 wins from their final 18 league games didn't prove enough for Arsenal to win the Premier League in the 2023/24 season, with the Gunners ending the campaign on 89 points, two fewer than champions Manchester City. It's the second season in a row Mikel Arteta's side have been pipped to the title by City, and after final day heartbreak, Arsenal will already be turning their attention to trying to win the league next season.

Mohamed Elneny and Cedric Soares won't be part of the Arsenal squad next season after their contracts expired, while a few more departures are expected over the next few months. Additions are also set to arrive at the Emirates this summer, with a new striker seemingly a priority for Arteta.

So, how could Arsenal fare in the 2024/25 season? Let's take a look.

Arsenal's 2024/25 season simulated

To set up this simulation, we used Football Manager 2024 to simulate the 2024/25 season, with Leeds United joining Leicester City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League. No transfers were made in the summer transfer window, and this is what happened.

At the end of the 2024/25 season, Football Manager 2024 put together an overall best Arsenal XI, based on performances, statistics, and other metrics. This is what it looked like:

Arsenal's best XI from the 2024/25 season
Arsenal's best XI from the 2024/25 season -Credit:Football Manager 24

Full Arsenal best XI: (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Partey, Odegaard, Rice; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.

The striker position proved an issue for Arsenal once again, with Leanrdo Trossard ending the campaign with just 10 goals in all competitions, but still more than Kai Havertz (9), Gabriel Jesus (7), and Eddie Nketiah (4). Thomas Partey joined Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard in midfield, while Jurrien Timber claimed the left-back position as his own.

Arsenal started the season well as they remained hot on the heels of City and Liverpool in the early stages. But, a horrendous December saw the Gunners lose five games in a single month, with this spell of results ultimately taking away any chances of winning the Premier League.

How the Premier League table looked at the end of the 2024/25 season
How the Premier League table looked at the end of the 2024/25 season -Credit:Football Manager 24

Arteta's side lost just two league games in 2025 as they surged back up the Premier League table, but it wasn't enough as the Gunners finished third. 25 wins, five draws, and eight defeats saw Arsenal end the campaign with 80 points, nine fewer than the 2023/24 season.

In the simulation, it was a whopping 15 points fewer than City who won the league again, while Liverpool finished second on 83 points. Away from the Premier League, Arsenal had no luck in the cup competitions as they ended the season without a trophy.

Arsenal failed to win a trophy in the 2024/25 season
Arsenal failed to win a trophy in the 2024/25 season -Credit:Football Manager 24

A 2-0 loss to City saw the Gunners miss out on the Community Shield before the start of the season, while their first exit from any cup came following a 2-1 loss to Brentford in the FA Cup third round. A 1-0 aggregate defeat to Liverpool saw Arteta's side exit the Champions League in the Round of 16, and a 1-0 loss to Brighton saw the Gunners lose the Carabao Cup final.

Overall, FM24 predicts that with the same squad as this season, Arsenal won't win the Premier League, with goalscoring proving a problem at times for Arteta's side. The simulation suggests a new striker is needed at the club, so it's good this seems to be a priority for the Gunners this summer.