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Six Nations 2023 predictions: Why Ireland and France will not have it all their own way
The final Six Nations Championship before the Rugby World Cup later this year should be a blockbuster.
Title holders France and world No 1 team Ireland lead the way on current form, but this is a tournament that has a reputation for veering off-script.
With that in mind, we have asked our team of rugby writers to offer their predictions, plus who they think will be the breakthrough player in this year's tournament...
Gavin Mairs
Table prediction
Ireland
France
England
Scotland
Wales
Italy
Andy Farrell has spent the last two seasons attempting to build enough depth in the Ireland squad to ensure they do not repeat their mistakes of four years ago when their World Cup hopes fell away dramatically after peaking a year earlier. If he is to dispel the doubters, this is the moment to convert last year’s momentum into a Championship title, with both France and England coming to Dublin.
All the pre-tournament signs, however, suggest this will be the most competitive tournament in years. Can England and Wales enjoy the bounce from new head coaches? Steve Borthwick has arguably the toughest task, especially with the injury problems he has and with such little time to pick up the pieces from the shattering of the Eddie Jones regime.
Gregor Townsend appears to be fighting for a new contract with Scotland and will travel to London with a team full of confidence but the nagging feeling that they have yet to properly deliver on their potential. And then there is France, arguably the form team in the world, but facing trips to London and Dublin. The title race should become much clearer after the first two rounds.
Star player
Josh van der Flier
The current men’s world player of the year may be an obvious choice, but if Ireland triumph it is more than likely it will be because of his roving impact.
Breakthrough player
Ollie Hassell-Collins
One thing certain about the new Borthwick regime is that there will be a fresh look to the back three and he is prepared to unleash players like Hassell-Collins, who looks to have everything to make a big impact from a standing start.
Top try-scorer
Antoine Dupont
I have a strong feeling it is going to be a Frenchman. Damian Penaud will also be key to France’s awesome attacking game, but Dupont will have his hands on the ball more than anyone and has the vision and intuition to strike from anywhere.
Charlie Morgan
Table prediction
Ireland
England
France
Scotland
Wales
Italy
This could look very silly within a week, but Ireland have to be front-runners. They host France and England, their Leinster contingent gives them unrivalled cohesion and Andy Farrell has engendered a comfort with being regarded as favourites. Steve Borthwick will add much-needed clarity, especially for England’s forwards, and I can see them ousting France at Twickenham again. Round two, with Scotland hosting Wales as Ireland take on the champions, is the big one.
Star player
Caelan Doris
Whomever they pick, Ireland will field a phenomenal back row and Doris is a star. Resourceful, skilful and explosive – in both attack and defence – he has been in jaw-dropping form for Leinster.
Breakthrough player
Ollie Hassell-Collins
Dropping both Jonny May and Jack Nowell reinforced Steve Borthwick’s intention to refresh his back three and he has been effusive about Hassell-Collin, the rangy and rapid wing.
Top try-scorer
Josh van der Flier
Damian Penaud is the easy answer here but Van der Flier, another all-action Ireland back-rower, will be involved in mauls and quick-tap moves as well as everything else.
Tom Cary
Table prediction
Ireland
France
Wales
England
Scotland
Italy
Ireland and France are clearly much further down the development path than the rest. And with their meeting this year taking place in Dublin, that makes Andy Farrell’s men marginal favourites. England under Steve Borthwick will be organised, but possibly not yet world beaters. Wales under Warren Gatland are a different proposition. Their meeting in Cardiff will determine which of them finishes higher. Think Wales might edge it.
Star player
Johnny Sexton
Not an original pick but if Ireland are going to win this year’s tournament, one suspects Sexton will be the key man. It is incredible to think that, at the age of 37 (38 in July), Ireland are still so dependent on the Leinster man. But they really are. They still don’t have a nailed-on backup 10, with Joey Carbery – who has been trained up for years to be that man – not even making the squad.
Breakthrough player
Christ Tshiunza
If Wales are to fire, Gatland might need a breakout star to inspire his team and that man could be Tshiunza. The 21-year-old Exeter back rower, who can double up at lock, is a towering presence at 6ft 6in and over 17 stone. Jac Morgan is likely to start at 6, but Tshiunza could make a real impact in a World Cup year if he gets his chance.
Top try-scorer
Ange Capuozzo
A pick made more in hope than expectation. Italy are unlikely to provide the Toulouse star with enough opportunities. But we can dream. Is there any better sight in rugby than a diminutive back-three player with glorious footwork and a turn of pace bamboozling players twice his size?
Charles Richardson
Table prediction
Ireland
France
England
Scotland
Italy
Wales
This is an unenviable task but Ireland must be considered favourites given their home advantage against both France and England – although don't be surprised to see no Grand Slam. Expect a much-improved England to push France all the way at Twickenham – that one could go either way – and Scotland to pick up a couple of victories, too. Wales... well, they have to travel to Rome after the shock in Cardiff last year.
Star player
Antoine Dupont
It is getting boring, of course, but Dupont is fast approaching legendary status, among the greatest players of all time. No one is revered as highly, and no one has injected such excitement and enthrall into a sport which flourishes so much with it, but flounders so much without it. When he touches the ball – even when he is near to it – magic happens. His brawn is just as sharp as his brain, too.
Top try-scorer
Jamie George
Expect Steve Borthwick to get England’s maul rocking and rolling. The England forwards have already been speaking about how they'd like to reap greater rewards from this facet of the game and George could be the beneficiary at the back.
Breakthrough player
Jamie Osborne
With an injury to Robbie Henshaw and Stuart McCloskey failing to make the jersey his own in the autumn, there is a chance for Osborne in the Irish inside centre berth. At just 21, the uncapped Osborne is raw – only making his senior club debut two years ago – but he showed abilities beyond his years in Leinster’s recent dominance in the Champions Cup. Gloucester, as well as many others, simply could not handle him.
Fiona Tomas
Table prediction
France
Ireland
England
Scotland
Wales
Italy
Ireland have an unhealthy habit of peaking a year out from the World Cup and will come up against a stubborn French side who won’t be ready to relinquish their 11-match winning run in a title-defining Dublin showdown in round two.
Steve Borthwick has had minimal time to lay the building blocks needed to bolster England’s scrum, but his back-to-basics approach should be enough to secure a mid-table finish. An inspired, albeit ageing, Welsh pack will likely lack the power game required against their Celtic rivals, despite a fresh feel with Warren Gatland back at the helm.
Star player
Gregory Alldritt
Is there a better forward in men’s Test rugby right now than France’s all-encompassing No 8? The ultimate big-game player, he will be key to steering his side to a consecutive title. From his industriousness in the wider channels to his athleticism in the carry, Alldritt is the complete package and the glue that often holds France’s marauding back row together.
Breakout star
Cadan Murley
Amid a changing of the guard for England wingers all eyes will be on Ollie Hassell-Collins, but Murley will be right in the mix given his eye-catching qualities. An exquisite finisher who is blessed with explosiveness, not to mention his ability to exploit the tightest of spaces and defensive workrate, the accomplished youngster could be the piece of the attacking puzzle that England have been missing as Borthwick’s new regime takes shape.
Top try-scorer
Damian Penaud
An elusive winger who has revolutionised France’s backline under Fabien Galthie, expect Penaud, last year's top try scorer in the men's Championship, to continue where he left off. A lightning rod for the French attack with a history of guillotining defences with his deceptive footwork, the 26-year-old will be a key figure in spearheading Les Bleus’ title charge.
James Corrigan
Table prediction
France
Ireland
Wales
England
Scotland
Italy
I think it will be very tight all round, with maybe even each country boasting at least two wins for the first time in the 'Six' Nations era. France in Dublin should be a cracker, with the Shaun Edwards defence fancied to win the day. England could again struggle creatively, while Warren Gatland should conjure his usual alchemy.
Star player
Antoine Dupont
Dupont is the best player in the world, in my book, and if France give him the platform then he can deliver their carnage, either via his back row or his backline. He will be the French poster boy for the home World Cup and he will surely provide the graphic artist a few pictures in this Championship from which to choose.
Breakthrough player
Jac Morgan
He has only played one Six Nations match, but such is his standing already in Wales that, in some quarters, Gatland was being urged to pick him as captain. Does not need that pressure – yet – and can instead concentrate on being the ultimate, ball-carrying, disruptive jackler that he promises to be
Top try-scorer
Damian Penaud
Don't overthink this. Penaud was the joint leading try-scorer in last year's Championship and looks even more accomplished a year on. Nicknamed 'Le Phenomene', he is a free spirit and wonderfully-unique runner who challenges Dupont as France's most important player.
