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Supercomputer predicts Liverpool title chances after Man City held by Arsenal

james findlater
·2-min read
Liverpool is predicted to finish behind Manchester City and Arsenal in the Premier League title race
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)


Liverpool has been predicted to finish third again in this season’s Premier League, with Manchester City tipped to win yet another title ahead of Arsenal.

The Reds find themselves sandwiched in between their two title rivals from the previous campaign following their win over Bournemouth at the weekend, which came before a fiery draw at the Etihad.

Arne Slot’s side sits just a point behind City after five games, level on points with Aston Villa, while Arsenal sits a point further back in fourth. There is of course still plenty of time before anyone can be crowned this season’s champion.

Bettingexpert.com though has done its best to predict how things will look come the end of May. Their supercomputer BETSiE has simulated the rest of the league season, taking into account all results from last season, pre-season results and the current season as it progresses to project the outcome based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the campaign.

According to their projections, City is set to claim a fifth straight title, winning the league by an approximate eight-point margin. Liverpool, meanwhile, is predicted to finish third, being narrowly beaten to second by Arsenal in a repeat of last season’s standings.

There’s a change in the top four this time around though, with Chelsea grabbing the last remaining Champions League spot on offer. Manchester United finishes the season in fifth, with Aston Villa dropping down to sixth.

Projected Premier League table

  1. Man City

  2. Arsenal

  3. Liverpool

  4. Chelsea

  5. Man Utd

  6. Aston Villa

  7. Tottenham

  8. Newcastle

  9. Brighton

  10. West Ham

  11. Nottingham Forest

  12. Fulham

  13. Bournemouth

  14. Brentford

  15. Crystal Palace

  16. Wolves

  17. Everton

  18. Leicester

  19. Southampton

  20. Ipswich

City are considered overwhelming favorites to retain their title, having been given a 68.3 per cent probability of winning the league. Liverpool, meanwhile, has been given a 13.4 per cent chance of claiming a first league crown under Slot.

The good news for the Reds is they’ve been virtually assured of a top-four finish, with the probability of them earning a Champions League spot for next season rated at 85.3 per cent. In comparison, Chelsea are only given a 44.6 per cent shot at finishing in the top four, while United are considered rank outsiders with a 26.5 per cent probability.

Liverpool.com says: You always need to take these predictions with a pinch of salt, especially considering we are only five games into the new league season. Plenty more water needs to pass under the bridge before we can hanging the winners’ medals around anyone’s necks.

The early signs of Liverpool under Slot though have been promising, Nottingham Forest aside. If they can keep producing the same sort of performances during the remainder of the season, a title challenge shouldn’t be out of the question, although City will once again be the team to beat.