Talking Horses: Roaring Lion team 'lean towards' tilt at Epsom Derby

Roaring Lion Derby decision due on Tuesday

Chris Cook: A final decision about Roaring Lion’s next race is to be announced on Tuesday, with John Gosden prepared to say that he is “leaning towards” running his flashy colt in the Derby at Epsom a week on Saturday. The alternative is to run him in the French equivalent the following day.

The decision has been left entirely in the hands of the Newmarket trainer by Roaring Lion’s owner, Sheikh Fahad of Qatar. “Sheikh Fahad has discussed it with John and is happy to let him make the final decision,” said the owner’s racing manager, David Redvers.

How Roaring Lion would cope with the Derby distance of a mile and a half is likely to be the key question in Gosden’s mind. The colt was a revelation in last week’s Dante Stakes at York, powering clear of his rivals in that mile and a quarter contest. But some analysts have suggested Roaring Lion’s raw pace means a step up in distance would not play to his strengths. The French Derby is run over the same distance as the Dante, two furlongs shorter than the Epsom race.

“Leaning towards the English, final decision tomorrow,” was Gosden’s quick verdict on Monday when asked about Roaring Lion’s next race. The horse is 7-1 second-favourite for the Derby.

Today’s best bets, by Greg Wood

There is an interesting report in the Racing Post which suggests the British Horseracing Authority will consider the introduction of a “stand-down” period for horses that fall in a race.

David Sykes, the BHA’s director of equine health and welfare, says: “We’re looking to see what happens when horses run within seven days after a fall, 14 days after a fall and 21 days after a fall. Is there any difference in the outcome over those periods? Should we be writing some sort of rule depending on what that outcome is?

“We’ve concussion rules for jockeys and other athletes, so realistically I’m thinking we need to probably put something in place for horse welfare.”

It is just one of a number of interesting initiatives under consideration as Sykes ponders the sport’s current welfare strategy and a stand-down period for fallers could certainly have quite an effect on the number of runners over jumps.

Sykes will presumably be working from a BHA database and may use a different time-frame, but this database says that, since 2003, a total of 615 horses have run within seven days of a fall in a National Hunt race in Britain, of which 71 (11.54%) were winners. The figures for 14 days were: 2,491 runners, 248 wins and a 9.96% strike rate, and for 21 days it is 4,530 runners, 460 wins, 10.15%.

When you account for the fact that horses returning within seven days are also included in the two subsequent groups, which produced a lower strike-rate despite the fact that horses being added to the survey had longer to recover, there does not appear to be any immediate sign that a longer recovery period from a fall produces a significantly better outcome.

The obvious quality on Monday’s programme is down by the riverside at Windsor, where The Tin Man, last year’s Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner at Royal Ascot, returns to action in the Listed Weatherbys Hamilton Stakes. He gets 3lb from Gifted Master, his main rival in the betting and while his fitness must be taken on trust, he was straight enough to win this race in 2016 and 11-10 looks like quite a fair price all told.

Merry Banter (4.05) stopped the clock in a very useful time when winning last time out and must go close at Redcar if she is in anything like the same form, while Make On Madam (4.35) should also go well on the same card. Raselasad (3.45), who improved throughout last season, is another to consider as he returns to Carlisle, where he ran well to finish third on his debut 12 months ago.

Redcar 2.05 Zebzardee 2.35 Furni Factors 3.05 Displaying Amber 3.35 Amandine 4.05 Merry Banter (nap) 4.35 Make On Madam 5.05 Savaanah 5.35 Boko Fittleworth

Carlisle 2.15 Hard Forest 2.45 Seen The Lyte 3.15 Uptown Funk 3.45 Raselasad (nb) 4.15 Arbalet 4.45 Ventura Gold 5.15 Presidential
5.45 Redrosezorro

Towcester 2.25 Pontresina 2.55 Windspiel 3.25 Starcrossed 3.55 Bassarabad 4.25 Take To Heart 4.55 Dizzey Heights

Leicester 6.00 Good Tyne Girl 6.30 Flashman 7.00 Making Miracles
7.30 Dolcissimo 8.00 Flirtare 8.30 Genetics

Windsor 6.15 Come On Leicester 6.45 Satisfying 7.15 Alwaysandforever 7.45 The Tin Man 8.15 Agrotera 8.45 Junoesque