Talking Horses: best Monday bets at Plumpton and Ayr

Our tipster finds himself out of step with the betting market over Itoldyou’s chance in East Sussex today

Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook

As a general rule, the further out of step with the betting market you find yourself, the more wrong you are likely to be, or the more likely you are to be wrong. I hope that doesn’t sound defeatist and of course I believe it’s possible to beat the market, or I wouldn’t be doing this, but the market represents a lot of wisdom and a lot of knowledge and that requires respect.

Related: Horse racing tips: Monday 16 January

All that being said, I’m surprised to be getting 6-1 about Itoldyou (3.05) at Plumpton, having reconciled myself to the idea that he’d be favourite by this morning. From the Linda Jewell yard that had a winner at the last meeting here, this chestnut has dropped more than a stone from his last winning mark, having clearly lost his form last season, but is now threatening to win again.

Around here in November and then at Fontwell last month, he ran well to be second under a 7lb claimer who has just one win over fences to his name this season. He was beaten only by an unexposed type last time and finished well clear of the third.

The going today is a lot more testing than on those occasions, which ought to help, given that he’s at the bottom of the weights. Conditions must have been similar when he won the Sussex National here a couple of years ago. Tom Cannon, who rode that day, is back in the saddle and the tongue tie is back on for the first time since March.

Jewell and Cannon also team up for Clonusker (4.10), an 11-2 shot for the closing handicap hurdle. Heavy going around Plumpton has brought out the best of him in the past and he is now down to a very beatable mark, having hinted at a revival on good to soft here in November.

Freddies Portrait (2.45) is the interesting one at Ayr. A winning pointer in Ireland, he should win some races with his jumping, judged by his chasing debut at Carlisle last month. He got run out of it that day but may have more to offer on this step up in distance and bearing in mind that that was his first outing for a year. He’s 9-2.

Lady Bacchus (5.00) is understandably popular at 5-2 for one of the sprint handicaps at Wolverhampton. She was stuffed on Fibresand last time but put up much better efforts in her two five-furlong runs on Tapeta, both at Newcastle, winning once and running second in the other. She’s still on a good mark and should get a good tow into this from the pace-setters.