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Talking Horses: Hooray for declaring wind ops, whether they work or not

The Rainbow Hunter’s victory in the 2014 Sky Bet Chase was one of the triggers for a renewed discussion about whether wind operations in racehorses should be recorded.
The Rainbow Hunter’s victory in the 2014 Sky Bet Chase was one of the triggers for a renewed discussion about whether wind operations in racehorses should be recorded. Photograph: John Giles/PA

Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook

It’s great to learn that wind ops will have to be declared in the future and the British Horseracing Authority is due plenty of credit for taking another punter-friendly step towards openness in the Nick Rust era. It’s another piece of information that will help anyone making a serious attempt to understand the game and that is an indisputably good thing in my book.

The reaction on social media has been, um, interesting. Some trainers appear not to think very highly of punters, judging by responses to the effect that punters will be terribly disappointed when they learn that many (most?) wind ops do not improve a horse’s performance.

Surely no one imagines that being told about wind ops is the same thing as getting the keys to the mint. It couldn’t possibly be that, even if wind ops worked all the time. Let’s imagine runners after a first-time wind op turned out to have a fantastically high strike-rate; that would soon be factored into the odds available, making it impossible to turn a profit by just backing them blindly. While trainers flatter themselves that their job is far too complex for us to understand, it seems that some of them have trouble comprehending how betting works.

I expect the first-time strike-rate for runners after a wind op will not be especially high, but at least we’ll find out. There will be situations in which such a horse is attractive and many others in which he is not. Having the information improves the prospects of those punters prepared to do their homework and reduces the unknowable element in outcomes.

Off the top of my head, I can think of two areas that will require more exploration. The first relates to the various types of wind ops, which probably differ as to their success rate and which may give an indication as to the gravity of that horse’s problem. Most punters are miles off the pace on this subject and have some learning to do. Of course, there would have been limited value in trying to understand the subject while wind ops were mostly undeclared and unknown.

The second is enforcement. It’s all very well telling owners and trainers that they must declare when a wind operation has taken place, but what if they don’t? Will a racecourse vet, subjecting a horse to a quick examination, be able to tell that it has had an undeclared wind op at some point? If there are visual clues, do they fade over time? An unenforceable rule benefits no one, so let’s hope there’s a way to make everyone behave themselves.

At Hexham, Celtic Flames (12.55) is my main interest at 4-1, making his chasing debut after three runs over hurdles this autumn. He’s done all right in a couple of handicap hurdles and appears to be headed in the right direction but I’m hoping that bigger obstacles make a big difference.

It’s a couple of years since he won his only point in Ireland. Five lengths back in second was Accord (“no chance with easy winner”), who has since joined David Bridgwater and made a winning fences debut in a handicap last month. The mark he defied on that occasion was a full stone higher than the one Celtic Flames has now.

Similar reasoning leads me to Same Circus (1.05) at Warwick. Donald McCain’s mare won her only point and now makes her fencing debut in a handicap, having had a recent run over hurdles to help her towards peak fitness. She’s come down 8lb for just three defeats in handicaps but needs to be a lot sharper than for her Carlisle run last month. The 12-1 is worth a risk, for me.

At Chepstow, Grand Introduction (2.25) is bigger than I expected at 12-1, even allowing for his absence since February of last year. It’s pretty interesting to see a half-brother to No More Heroes (and a couple of other decent types) making his chasing debut from a mark of 108.

It’s not impossible that the in-form Fergal O’Brien has got him ready to go, here. He looks the type to beat his handicap mark at some stage, anyway.

Tips for all Wednesday races

Hexham
12.25
Eneko 12.55 Celtic Flames (nb) 1.30 The Dubai Way 2.00 Hattons Hill 2.35 Clan Legend 3.10 Very First Time 3.40 Topham Bay

Warwick
12.35
Santo De Lune 1.05 Same Circus 1.40 Molly The Dolly 2.10 Sceau Royal 2.45 Lady Karina 3.20 Backoftherock 3.50 So Lonely

Chepstow
12.45
Moving In Style 1.15 Marley Firth 1.50 Tangley 2.25 Grand Introduction 3.00 Fille Des Champs 3.30 Jayo Time 4.00 Kenyan

Kempton
4.10
Jive Talking 4.40 Secretario 5.10 Salute The Soldier 5.40 Qaysar (nap) 6.10 Savaanah 6.40 Khafoo Shememi 7.10 Royal Reserve 7.40 Kath’s Legacy