Talking Horses: when Native River was 'lucky' to beat Definitly Red

Thursday’s best bets, by Chris Cook

Here’s a wee lesson about interpreting results, arising from the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Rootling around in the dim and distant form of the winner, I found this race.

From autumn 2014, it’s Native River’s second run over hurdles and, despite having won the time before, he was allowed to start at 10-1. That had a lot to do with the presence at Newcastle that day of Definitly Red, making his hurdling debut after landing Cheltenham’s Listed bumper a fortnight before.

Definitly Red was sent off at 8-11 and travelled like a good horse but couldn’t get to his rival and was beaten two and three-quarter lengths, one of those annoying races where no one wants to go on and it was 20 seconds between the tape going up and the runners breaking into a canter.

The outcome was Native River setting a steady pace, which meant he wasn’t given unqualified praise. “He very much enjoyed the run of the race,” said one analyst, and I expect most of us saw it the same way. “Whether he would confirm the form with [Definitly Red] in a more strongly run event is debatable.”

Well, debate no longer, Definitly Red having been beaten 38 lengths last Friday. It just goes to show that a winner can be the horse to stick with, even if it really looks like he was flattered. As a side note, Native River’s connections did not stick with the front-running tactics. With the exception of a small-field race at Exeter, he didn’t set the pace for the next 18 months, until the final start of his novice chase season, which was also the first time that Richard Johnson rode him.

As a further side note, I can reveal The Guardian tipped Definitly Red for the Newcastle race, which doubtless forced his price down. Also, we went with Smad Place for the Hennessy that day, a full year before he bolted up in that race, by which time we’d abandoned him. Sheesh.

If you’re still interested in my view, I fancy Flashing Glance (5.15) at 9-2 in a handicap hurdle at Ludlow. He’s from Tom Lacey’s Ledbury stable that should be of interest, having had four winners from its last five runners in handicaps.

It looks like this five-year-old has skipped the winter to wait for drying ground and should get some here. He won a Stratford novice event in September and stuck on to be third behind Silver Streak and Dolos on his handicap debut at Chepstow the following month.

He’s had a wind op since last seen and the hood is refitted, having been on for his last run back from a break. I guess we can expect to say a free-running performance here but I think he has the quality to stay in front.

The Venetia Williams revival makes Saroque (4.00) interesting at 10-1 for a Chepstow handicap chase. Williams has had a rotten winter by her standards but won handicaps at Kempton and Wetherby in recent days and, while there was some luck behind Wednesday’s 66-1 winner at Haydock, the mare in question finished her race really strongly.

Saroque hasn’t won since 2015 but his rating has crashed to the point where he really ought to be competitive, having come down 9lb for just two defeats this winter. His amateur rider has a modest strike-rate over fences but this is a good opportunity.

In Wolverhampton’s opener, Annie Salts (2.10) is fairly priced at 7-1. Twice a winner from four attempts over this course and distance last year, she has come back down to her last winning mark and is ridden by Silvestre de Sousa, who did well on her last year. She’s had a wind operation since her last run. The wide draw is a pity but two non-runners have reduced the field to nine.

Wolverhampton 2.10 Annie Salts (nap) 2.40 Global Academy 3.15 Barnaby Brook 3.50 The Juggler 4.25 Raakid 4.55 Widnes 5.25 Madame Ritz 6.00 Surewhynot

Chepstow 2.20 Mr Lando 2.50 Dinos Benefit 3.25 This Is It 4.00 Saroque 4.35 Minellatillmorning 5.05 Vasco Du Mee 5.35 Barcalona

Ludlow 2.30 Michael’s Mount 3.00 Tree Of Liberty 3.35 Silver Kayf 4.10 Tornado In Milan 4.45 Opening Batsman 5.15 Flashing Glance (nb) 5.50 Best To Come

Chelmsford 5.45 Mossy’s Lodge 6.15 Sharp Operator 6.45 King Kevin 7.15 Red Touch 7.45 Kion 8.15 Mythical Spirit 8.45 Jack The Truth

Tips by Chris Cook.