Talking Horses: Outlander fancied to win early clash of jumps giants

Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook

The jumps season starts here folks! Chepstow was all very enjoyable at the weekend but today at Punchestown we have some authentic Gold Cup horses taking each other on, headed by Minella Rocco, who was second in the big race at Cheltenham in March.

Jonjo O’Neill has done well to find a race in which this beast is so well treated, getting at least 8lb from everything except the rank outsider. I can absolutely see why he heads the market but this is a horse who needs a proper test of stamina and I’m not sure he’s going to get it in this early-season, seven-runner contest.

When I spoke to Jonjo yesterday, he talked about the importance of getting some more experience into a horse who only has one win over fences to his name. Winning today is not everything and I can’t bring myself to fancy a bet on him at 2-1. Let’s remember that he started last season in a handicap on what now looks a lenient mark and still got beat.

Outlander (4.10) appeals to me at 9-2. I’m intrigued to see Gordon Elliott’s line in today’s Post that he’s been operated on for a kissing spine that might explain a poor couple of runs at the end of last season. I think the trainer will have him ready to go well here and the horse has a perfect 1/1 record under Jack Kennedy, who got a career best out of him to win the Lexus.

Zabana would be the pick on his novice-season form but he was disappointing last year, while Sub Lieutenant doesn’t look in need of three miles to me. Road To Respect is the one to worry about, although meeting Outlander at level weights gives him half a stone to find.

At Brighton, Bloodsweatandtears (3.05) is napped more because I thought the odds would be bigger than his chance, rather than because he’s a very likely winner. There’s 9-1, which is indeed bigger than he should be in my view, because his autumn record at this track takes some beating.

His last three wins have been at Brighton in September of 2013, 2015 and 2016 and here he is again, on a beatable handicap mark and just a little bit later in the year. He’s been off since March but has gone well fresh in the past, including when scoring here in 2013, and another bold effort seems likely.

At Uttoxeter, Cloudy Too (3.25) is 10-1, returning to hurdles for only the third time in five years. Last time he ran over hurdles, he hosed up by five lengths over this course and distance in November, although this is a stronger race and Sue Smith’s runners at Wetherby yesterday offered little encouragement. I think he’s worth a chance, while accepting the clear risk of a disappointing effort.

Tips for all Thursday races

Brighton
2.00 Sing Out Loud 2.30 Wilson 3.05 Bloodsweatandtears (nap) 3.35 Pick A Little 4.05 About Glory 4.40 Spinnaka 5.10 Coral Caye 5.40 Bella Alissa

Carlisle
2.10 Vercingetorix 2.45 Apollo Creed 3.15 I Just Know 3.45 Colt Lightning 4.20 Yeats Baby 4.50 Report To Base 5.25 Hecla

Uttoxeter
2.20 Knight Destroyer 2.55 Counter Shy 3.25 Cloudy Too (nb) 3.55 Another Venture 4.30 Irish Octave 5.00 Indian Reel

Newcastle
5.15 Mr Davies 5.45 Pioneertown 6.15 Royal Residence 6.45 Crown Of Cortez 7.15 W G Grace 7.45 Ifubelieveindreams 8.15 American Hustle 8.45 Canford Bay