The Daily Sweat: Can the Mavericks keep it going and upset the Warriors?

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The reaction to Sunday night's Game 7 was mostly about the Phoenix Suns. The Suns had the best record in the NBA and they got embarrassed in an elimination game, leading to everyone with a social media account pointing out how bad they were.

Some of it was fair. The Suns were bad. The Dallas Mavericks had a little bit to do with that, however.

The Mavericks were great in eliminating the Suns and take that momentum into the Western Conference finals. The Mavs are still a 4.5-point underdog at BetMGM vs. the Golden State Warriors.

It will be difficult for the Mavericks to refocus just a few days after that monumental win over the Suns. But there's no reason to count them out, in Game 1 or the series.

Dallas has been good for months. From Feb. 4 to the end of the regular season, Dallas was 23-7. They overcame Luka Doncic missing the start of a first-round series to eliminate the Utah Jazz, then beat the Suns in seven games. The Warriors are obviously very good, with a championship pedigree and endless shooting, but they did have a difficult time eliminating the Memphis Grizzlies even after Ja Morant's injury. This isn't a vintage Warriors team that seems unbeatable.

FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Mavericks a 54 percent chance to move on to the NBA Finals. ESPN's BPI also has Dallas with a 20.8 percent chance to win the championship compared to 11.1 for the Warriors. You can dismiss either projection, but it doesn't come close to matching up with the odds. The Warriors are -225 to win the series at BetMGM, with the Mavericks at +185. There's clearly some value on the Mavs.

Doncic is arguably the best player left in the playoffs. The Mavericks play well around him and have been one of the NBA's best teams since early February. At very least, it should be easy to admit the Mavs aren't getting enough respect going into this series.

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are looking for an upset in the Western Conference finals. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are looking for an upset in the Western Conference finals. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Here is the first look at the sports betting slate for Wednesday:

Two NHL Game 1s

There was some drama on Tuesday night as two NHL series got going. The Tampa Bay Lightning got a big Game 1 win over the Florida Panthers, then the St. Louis Blues pushed the Colorado Avalanche to overtime, where the Avs won.

Two more series start on Wednesday. The New York Rangers face the Carolina Hurricanes (-165) and the Edmonton Oilers take on the Calgary Flames (-160). Both home teams are favored for good reason. The Hurricanes looked very good knocking off the Boston Bruins in the first round and the Flames have been one of the NHL's best teams for most of the season. It's hard to find value in either underdog, but it's the NHL playoffs. Anything can happen.

A full MLB Wednesday

Some MLB series wrap up Wednesday. There are five afternoon games, highlighted by a 2021 NLDS rematch between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers. In the nighttime, the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox have traded wins and settle the series Wednesday. Houston, which has been playing very well, is a -135 favorite. We also get to see Max Scherzer on the mound for the New York Mets, who are -190 favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals.

What's the best bet?

While I like the Mavericks in the series at their long odds, I'm not sure they'll cover in Game 1. Look at the Boston Celtics at the Miami Heat on Tuesday night. Instead I'll go back to the Astros, who have been a great bet lately and aren't a huge favorite despite having the best of the pitching matchup on Wednesday.

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