The two sure things when it comes to predicting NFL playoff teams

If the season were to end today, there would be four teams in the playoffs who didn’t make it last season: the Dallas Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons, the Oakland Raiders and the Buffalo Bills.

That’s great news for playoff-starved Bills and Raiders fans and 33 percent turnover sounds like a pretty good deal for those who like parity. Except that it’s actually not that much out of the norm. Since 2000, there have been an average of 5.8 “new” teams in each successive playoff season. There have never been less than four newcomers in that timespan and as many as eight in 2008 and nine (9!) in 2003.

In this week’s NFL in 90, I look at this year’s playoff contenders and where the “new team” count will land. Can those four teams above hang on for another few months? Can teams like the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles displace current incumbents who are in like the Houston Texans, Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos? Can the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals climb back in to playoff spots they’ve occupied the last few winters? In this unpredictable season, anything seems possible. Well, except for the New England Patriots missing the playoffs. They’re never giving up their spot.

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