Swansea City boss Paul Clement reckons his side will need to win at least three of their remaining five games to avoid relegation after Etienne Capoue's first-half goal condemned them to a sixth straight away defeat at Watford.
The 1-0 reverse means the Welsh club have now picked up just one point from their last five outings and remain two points adrift of 17th-placed Hull City in the Premier League table.
Swansea face Stoke City, Everton and West Bromwich Albion at home, along with trips to Manchester United and fellow-strugglers Sunderland in their remaining fixtures and Clement believes that nine points will be the minimum return required to beat the drop.
"We will probably need three wins out of the last five to stay up," he told BBC Sport. "And I'm not even sure that would be enough.
"The next one [versus Stoke] is a must-win game for us. It's the biggest game the club has had in years."
Clement went on to claim that his charges were a touch unfortunate not to claim a point at Vicarage Road, while admitting that they struggled to break down a resolute home defence.
"I think we did enough defensively," he said. "The goal has come from an individual error and Alfie [Mawson] knew that straight away. It's a big mistake.
"Offensively we got the ball into some good areas, but we were missing a clinical edge in the final third. That for me was the difference.
"We had over 45 minutes to try and get out of that situation [going 1-0 down], but we couldn't get the breakthrough.
"Hull not winning today keeps things the same, but for me it's a missed opportunity not to get a point."
Watford, meanwhile, now find themselves 12 points clear of the bottom three, but boss Walter Mazzarri refused to admit that his side's Premier League status has been secured for another year.
"Until the numbers say we are safe, we are not," he said. "I don't want my players to relax and I want to play with the same formation in order to get ready for next season."